Red Flag Warning 20, NWS Hastings, NE

576 
WWUS83 KGID 160051
RFWGID

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
751 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2012

KSZ005-017-NEZ060-072-082-160200-
/O.EXP.KGID.FW.W.0020.000000T0000Z-120716T0100Z/
PHILLIPS-ROOKS-DAWSON-GOSPER-FURNAS-
751 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 005...017...
060...072 AND 082...

WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING. THEREFORE...THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE. 

$$

HEINLEIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
613 AM CDT SUN JUL 15 2012

.AVIATION...12Z KGRI TAF. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH BUT WILL
INCREASE AROUND LUNCH TIME AS WE MIX OUT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS WITH A LEE TROUGH WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST. ONLY
CLOUDS EXPECTED WILL BE SOME CIRRUS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SUN JUL 15 2012/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  FOCUS IS ON HOT SUMMER
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ALONG CONCERNS FOR HIGH FIRE
DANGER THIS AFTERNOON.  PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHWARD ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND INTO THE DAKOTAS...WHILE A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH HAD
REACHED THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  IN THE WARM WEATHER REGIME ACROSS
THE INTERIOR CONUS...EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES AVERAGED IN THE 70S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TO BEGIN THE WORKWEEK...WHILE A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH REMAINS ORIENTED ALONG THE WEST COAST.  WITH OUR REGION
STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
HOT FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE 90S TO NEAR
100F AND LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE 70S.

TODAY WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING NEAR H7...WITH WINDS AT THE TOP
OF THE LAYER AROUND BETWEEN 16 AND 22KTS. IN THE DEEPER MIXING
TODAY...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP NEAR AND
PERHAPS BELOW 20 PCNT FOR OUR SW CWA...NAMELY IN FURNAS...PHILLIPS
AND ROOKS COUNTIES.  RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPED BELOW 20 PERCENT
YESTERDAY IN THIS AREA...AND WITH INCREASED WINDS TODAY CONDITIONS
WILL BE CLOSER TO APPROACHING RED FLAG WARNING.  HOWEVER...THE
INCREASED WINDS WITH THE STRONGER GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND CONFIDENCE IN MEETING THE THREE HOUR
TIME FRAME FOR GUSTY WINDS/LOW RH VALUES IS NOT HIGH...AND WILL HOLD
OFF ON HEADLINE ATTM.

STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CARRY INTO MONDAY ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS
ARE LOOKING ABOUT A CATEGORY WEAKER THAN TODAYS WIND SPEEDS AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD AND REACHES WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
EASTERN COLORADO...AND FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE IS NOT LOOKING LIKELY
FOR THIS PERIOD.  24HRS AGO MODELS SUGGESTED CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT
MAY APPROACH OUR NW AS IT ARCS AROUND RIDGE...BUT LATEST RUNS
SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN FARTHER NORTH AND WEST.

HEADING INTO TUESDAY...AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD WHICH WILL ALLOW GRADUALLY ALLOW
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO EDGE EASTWARD AS WELL.  THERE ARE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH BOUNDARY LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY...WITH
BOTH THE NAM/GFS DEPICTING SFC TROUGH FM WESTERN NEB IN TO KS.
HOWEVER THE GFS DEPICTS MAIN SFC LOW CENTER FARTHER SOUTH INTO KS
WHEREAS NAM PLACEMENT IS FARTHER NORTH IN NEB/SD.  THEREFORE NAM
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATION IS FARTHER NORTH THAN GFS DEPICTION.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EXISTS NORTH OF WARM FRONT AND IN VCNTY OF DRY
LINE ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS.  THE NAM SUGGESTS CONVECTION SHLD REMAIN
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WHEREAS GFS BRINGS IN SOME NOCTURNAL
ACTIVITY.  THE ECMWF IS DRY FOR OUR REGION IN THIS TIME FRAME
ALTHOUGH SREF SUGGESTS SOME 20ISH POPS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.  WITH
CHCS RELATIVELY LOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON POPS FOR NOW AND SEE WHAT
LATER MODEL RUNS SHOW FOR TIMING.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY.  CONCERN IN THE
LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER ON THE HEAT.

NO NEED TO MAKE THIS DISCUSSION OVERLY COMPLICATED AS EXPECT THE
EXTENDED TO CONTINUE TO BE HOT WITH MOST...IF NOT ALL... OF THE CWA
REMAINING DRY.

STARTING WITH THE BIG PICTURE...BY 12Z WEDNESDAY IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE A COUPLE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WITH ONE OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND THE OTHER OFF THE CA/OR COAST...WHILE RIDGING DOMINATES MOST OF
THE CONUS.  AS THE WEEK ROLLS ALONG IT APPEARS THAT THE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. WHILE THE TROUGHS HOLD THEIR POSITION. SOME OF
THE EXTENDED OPERATIONAL MODELS NOTE A FEW WEAKNESSES IN THE RIDGE
MID WEEK WHILE THE LATEST EC RUN HAS BACKED OFF ON THIS A BIT.
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WED AND WED NIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE THIS FOR NOW ALTHOUGH IF EC VERIFIES..WILL NEED TO GO
DRY.  BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED IT DOES APPEAR THE RIDGE TAKES HOLD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHICH AGAIN MEANS DRY AND HOT.  PROGGED
850 TEMPS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS POINT TO MID 90S NORTH TO UPPER 90S
SOUTH WED AND THUR AND THEN WARMING UP ANOTHER 5 DEGREES BY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY MEANING MANY LOCATIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN FLIRT WITH OR
EXCEED THE CENTURY MARK.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...EWALD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
442 AM CDT SUN JUL 15 2012

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
161200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
442 AM CDT SUN JUL 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXIST TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM LEXINGTON NEBRASKA TO OSBORNE
KANSAS. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST NEAR 20 PERCENT AND
SOUTH WIND GUSTS OVER 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)