Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Glasgow, MT

218 
WWUS55 KGGW 131711
SVSGGW

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1111 AM MDT MON AUG 13 2012

MTC071-105-131745-
/O.CON.KGGW.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-120813T1745Z/
PHILLIPS-VALLEY-
1111 AM MDT MON AUG 13 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 AM MDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN PHILLIPS COUNTIES...

AT 1108 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF SUN PRAIRIE...OR 30 MILES SOUTH OF
MALTA...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
 SUN PRAIRIE AND CONTENT

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4786 10783 4806 10774 4805 10728 4796 10731
      4772 10739
TIME...MOT...LOC 1711Z 280DEG 18KT 4793 10781

$$

GAH
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

280 
WWUS55 KGGW 131731
SVSGGW

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1131 AM MDT MON AUG 13 2012

MTC071-105-131740-
/O.CAN.KGGW.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-120813T1745Z/
PHILLIPS-VALLEY-
1131 AM MDT MON AUG 13 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN PHILLIPS COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

AT 1126 AM MDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED AND NO LONGER 
POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4786 10783 4806 10774 4805 10728 4796 10731
      4772 10739
TIME...MOT...LOC 1730Z 280DEG 18KT 4791 10767

$$

GAH
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
847 AM MDT MON AUG 13 2012

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MORNING UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING ALONG A NOW NON-EXISTENT
THETA-E RIDGE. A THIN SLIVER OF CAPE APPEARS ON THE MORNING
SOUNDING WHICH THE STORMS ARE CONTINUING TO CONSUME FROM ABOUT 700
MB UP. HOWEVER THESE STORMS WILL NEED TO MOVE OUT OF THEIR
LOCATION TO MAINTAIN AND ARE GRADUALLY PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST.
BEST GUESS FOR THE BLAINE COUNTY STORMS IS THROUGH NORTHERN
PHILLIPS AND INTO VALLEY COUNTY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER
THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SURVIVE LONG TODAY AND SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE INTO REGULAR RAIN SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. POP
AND SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN MODIFIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT TWEAK TO DAYTIME HIGHS FOR A MINIMAL RAIN COOLED SHADOW.
GAH

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING WHICH
HAD RESULTED IN A MCS COMPLEX OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA THIS MORNING.
THIS MCS IS CURRENTLY HEADING IN THE DIRECTION OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA. SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AD THE 4 KM WRF AND HRRR HAVE BEEN
SHOWING THIS FEATURE MOST OF THE NIGHT AND THE 00Z NAM AND GFS
HAVE SORT OF CAUGHT ONTO THIS SOLUTIONS. DECIDED TO PUT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING AND KEPT IT IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. COULD HAVE GONE HIGHER ON THE
POPS BUT SOMETIMES THESE THINGS TEND TO DIE AS THE SUN RISES. DAY
SHIFT MIGHT NEED TO INCREASE POPS LATER THIS MORNING IF THIS THING
IS STILL CHUGGING AWAY IN OUR DIRECTION.

MONDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUED WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
EAST AS WE ARE LIKE TO SEE A WARM SURGE OF AIR MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT IF YOU WILL THAT WILL STALL ACROSS
OUR EASTERN AND NORTHEAST ZONES AND PROVIDE SOME SURFACE
LIFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES FOR THE NORTHWEST.
DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY EVENING AND
MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EAST. THE WIND ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE
IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF ON A LAKE WIND ADVISORY AND LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A
LOOK AT CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD COVER MIGHT KEEP
THE MIXING DOWN.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WIDE RANGE OF PROBLEMS EXIST IN THIS
TIME FRAME. FIRST OFF WE HAVE A SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN BC THAT
WILL EXIT THE FRONT RANGE AND THEN TAP INTO THE ARCTIC AIR MASS
BUILDING OVER NUNAVUT... CREATING AN EXPRESS LANE DOWN THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES FOR ONE WHOPPER OF A COLD FRONT. THE NEXT
PROBLEM ON TUESDAY WILL COME IN THE AFTERNOON AS COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SHOW UP TUESDAY MORNING
AND LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL CAUSE THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES TO DROP SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO THE LOWER TEEN.
THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT IN THE SAME AREA
OUT OF THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON CREATING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

THE FRONT WILL BLOW THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
OUR TEMPER TUES WILL BEGIN TO DROP. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE DUE TO
THE CAA BEHIND THE FRONT SO EXPECT GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME FRAME. ALSO ALL PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO BE POST FRONTAL SO HAVE INCREASED POPS BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SHOWERS BUT COULD HAVE SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDER WITH THESE SHOWERS. ALSO LOWERED THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AS
I EXPECT SOME AREAS TO STAY IN THE MID 60S ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. VERY FALL LIKE FOR EARLY AUGUST. RSMITH

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH THE STRONG FALL LIKE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM ALBERTA. THIS
WILL BRING STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE
DRY AND COOL WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

THEN FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY A WEST COAST RIDGE BUILDS IN
BRINGING BACK THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER.

DAY 8 NEXT TUESDAY THE EC AND GFS DO HAVE DIFFERENT IDEAS
THEREFORE WILL OPT FOR DAY 7 PERSISTENCE FOR NOW.       PROTON

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. TWO MCS/S OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA ARE ON TRACK FOR MOVING INTO
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED ON THEIR CURRENT MOVEMENT THEY
WOULD ARRIVE IN NORTHERN PHILLIPS COUNTY BY 13-14Z... THEN KGGW BY
16-17Z. MODELS DO HAVE THEM MAKING IT TO THE AREA THEREFORE HAVE
FAIR CONFIDENCE THAT TSRA WILL AFFECT THE KGGW LOCATION LATER THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE ISOLATED TSRA COULD BRING FLIGHT CATEGORIES
DOWN TO MVFR BRIEFLY IF THEY PASS OVERHEAD.        PROTON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR MTZ122-135>137.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
311 AM MDT MON AUG 13 2012

MTZ016>027-059>062-140915-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
DANIELS-SHERIDAN-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-PETROLEUM-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
RICHLAND-DAWSON-PRAIRIE-WIBAUX-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-
311 AM MDT MON AUG 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF WESTERN CANADA ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING RESULTING IN A 15 TO 20 DEGREES
DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND FALL LIKE CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS
DIRECTLY BEHIND THE FRONT COULD EASILY BE BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH
OUT OF THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SO A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
649 AM MDT MON AUG 13 2012

MTZ022-131345-
GARFIELD-
649 AM MDT MON AUG 13 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GLASGOW HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL GARFIELD COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...

UNTIL 745 AM MDT.

AT 645 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES WEST OF JORDAN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
   JORDAN...
   COHAGEN...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4721 10634 4688 10670 4727 10721 4745 10701
TIME...MOT...LOC 1250Z 306DEG 18KT 4729 10702

PROTON
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
712 AM MDT MON AUG 13 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 AM     HAIL             2 W BRUSETT             47.43N 107.32W
08/13/2012  E1.50 INCH       GARFIELD           MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MOSTLY 1/2 TO 1 INCH HAIL WITH UP TO 1 1/2 INCH
            HAIL...COVERED THE GROUND WHITE.

&&

MATTM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
804 AM MDT MON AUG 13 2012

MTZ022-026-131430-
GARFIELD-PRAIRIE-
804 AM MDT MON AUG 13 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GLASGOW HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WESTERN PRAIRIE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...
  SOUTHEASTERN GARFIELD COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...

UNTIL 830 AM MDT.

AT 804 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HILLSIDE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
  RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN GARFIELD COUNTY...
  RURAL AREAS OF WESTERN PRAIRIE COUNTY...

LAT...LON 4698 10673 4720 10643 4686 10589 4686 10590
      4686 10608 4684 10609 4684 10648
TIME...MOT...LOC 1404Z 310DEG 28KT 4697 10638

FRANSEN
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
812 AM MDT MON AUG 13 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HAIL             COHAGEN                 47.05N 106.62W
08/13/2012  E0.50 INCH       GARFIELD           MT   CO-OP OBSERVER

            1/4 TO 1/2 INCH HAIL...DID NOT COVER THE GROUND
            COMPLETLY.

&&

MATTM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1017 AM MDT MON AUG 13 2012

MTZ016-131645-
PHILLIPS-
1017 AM MDT MON AUG 13 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GLASGOW HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL PHILLIPS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...

UNTIL 1045 AM MDT.

AT 1012 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DODSON...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
  RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL PHILLIPS COUNTY...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4834 10785 4808 10793 4814 10836 4834 10835
TIME...MOT...LOC 1617Z 280DEG 18KT 4823 10832

GAH
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1029 AM MDT MON AUG 13 2012

MTZ016-017-131715-
PHILLIPS-VALLEY-
1029 AM MDT MON AUG 13 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GLASGOW HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN VALLEY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...
  CENTRAL PHILLIPS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...

UNTIL 1115 AM MDT.

AT 1026 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 17 MILES NORTH OF FOURCHETTE...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...SUN PRAIRIE AND
CONTENT.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4812 10725 4770 10739 4791 10811 4809 10803
TIME...MOT...LOC 1629Z 280DEG 18KT 4797 10788

GAH
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW