Red Flag Warning 33, NWS Glasgow, MT

274 
WWUS85 KGGW 170807 AAA
RFWGGW

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
207 AM MDT WED OCT 17 2012

MTZ120-122-134>137-170915-
/O.CAN.KGGW.FW.W.0033.121017T1800Z-121018T0600Z/
FORT PECK RESERVATION-DANIELS-ROOSEVELT-SHERIDAN-DAWSON-MCCONE-
PRAIRIE-RICHLAND-WIBAUX-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-
LITTLE ROCKIES-
LOWER MISSOURI RIVER BREAKS INCLUDING CHARLES M. RUSSELL REFUGE-
SOUTHERN PETROLEUM-SOUTHERN GARFIELD-
207 AM MDT WED OCT 17 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 120...122...134...135...136 AND
137...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GLASGOW HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA
OVERNIGHT. WHILE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
65 MPH ARE EXPECTED...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NO
LONGER EXPECTED. 

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1044 AM MDT TUE OCT 16 2012

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...A STRONG UPPER WAVE IS PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL
MONTANA...INTO EASTERN MONTANA. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE PRESENT ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SYSTEM...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS EVIDENT
OVER NORTHWEST MONTANA. BIGGEST CHANGE FOR THE UPDATE WAS TO
INCREASE POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE SYSTEM. STRONG WINDS
CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND ESPECIALLY
TOMORROW WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING
SYSTEM. THUS NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD
SHOWING THE STRONG AND ACTIVE STORM SYSTEM NOW EMERGING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS NOW PUSHING
ONSHORE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE
ADVANCING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. RADAR IMAGERY NOW SHOWING A VERY LINEAR NORTH-SOUTH BAND
OF PRECIPITATION PUSHING THROUGH GREAT FALLS AND HEADING THIS WAY.

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL FOCUS ON THE HIGH WIND EVENT EXPECTED TO
IMPACT NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. MORE
SPECIFICALLY...THE TIMING AND ARRIVAL OF THE SUDDEN HIGHER WINDS
FROM THE WEST AND EXACTLY WHEN AND HOW FAR THEY SPREAD EAST
THROUGH PORTIONS OF OUR CWA.

MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA BEING REACHED
TODAY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES...DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT
TONIGHT...THEN INCREASING BEYOND HIGH WIND CRITERIA AGAIN FOR OUR
ENTIRE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THAT AND ITS
RECENTLY CONSISTENT MODEL DEPICTION TO UPGRADE THE PREVIOUS HIGH
WIND WATCH TO A HIGH WIND WARNING THROUGHOUT OUR ENTIRE CWA FOR
WEDNESDAY.

THE DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WITH ITS INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND DRY SLOT
SUBSIDENCE. SO...SOME TIMING ISSUES STILL PERSIST...BUT HAVE SPLIT
TODAY GRIDS INTO 3-HOURLIES TO SHOW CURRENT THINKING. JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO MIX IN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.

AS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH TREATMENT OF THE BACKSIDE TROWAL FEATURE AS THE
SYSTEM DESCENDS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. AT MOST...IT SEEMS
ONLY OUR FAR NORTHEAST ZONES MAY BE IMPACTED BY A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS BACKSIDE TROWAL FEATURE. MAY ONLY CLIP
PLENTYWOOD WITH HALF AN INCH OF SNOW.

BY THURSDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX AND WINDS BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AS PRECIP IS PUSHED FAR AWAY FROM OUR CWA. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
A DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND ACROSS WESTERN CANADA ON FRIDAY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN WHICH
WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER MONTANA. THE WAVE WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA EITHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MOISTURE
STAYS TO THE NORTH...SO LOOK FOR A WARM AND DRY DAY FOR THE
FORECAST AREA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL EVENTUALLY COVER A LARGE AREA OF WESTERN CANADA
FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TO SASKATCHEWAN ALONG WITH THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON HANDLING
SHORTWAVES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
MONTANA. THE GFS MAINTAINS A WSW FLOW ALOFT WHILE THE ECMWF IS
MORE SW WITH A DEEPER PACIFIC NW TROUGH. THE MODELS DO AGREE ON
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES BUT DIFFER ON
THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. WILL BROADBRUSH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART.

THE MODELS SPLIT THE LOW INTO 2 SYSTEMS EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH
MODELS KEEP ONE LOW IN THE PACIFIC OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE EASTERN LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA AND
KEEPS MONTANA COLD. THE GFS SENDS THE LOW EAST AND BUILDS A RIDGE
OVER MONTANA WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. THE PREVIOUS RUN OF
THE GFS KEPT MONTANA IN A BROAD TROUGH AND COLD. WILL MAINTAIN A
COLD FORECAST CLOSER TO THE ECMWF FOR NOW. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT VERY WINDY. A FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES
AND MUCH STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS. BY MID MORNING EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST- SOUTHWEST TO 15 TO 30 KTS...INCREASING
TO 25 TO 35 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 TO 50 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER
SUNSET...WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 20 KTS. THE STRONG WINDS
WILL RETURN AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
PETROLEUM...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...SOUTHWEST
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ120-122-134>137.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR DANIELS...SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...RICHLAND...
DAWSON...PRAIRIE...WIBAUX...EASTERN ROOSEVELT.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
339 AM MDT TUE OCT 16 2012

MTZ016>027-059>062-170900-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
DANIELS-SHERIDAN-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-PETROLEUM-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
RICHLAND-DAWSON-PRAIRIE-WIBAUX-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-
339 AM MDT TUE OCT 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN ACTIVE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION BEGINNING TODAY. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY WORK THEIR WAY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH
RANGE AND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THE STORM WILL BRING ALONG SOME COLDER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...CHANGING
THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW ALONG THE CANADIAN AND NORTH DAKOTA
BORDERS WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST MONTANA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
SANDWICHED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE WEST...STRONGER WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY
ACROSS ALL OF NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR BEHIND
THE SYSTEM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FAR NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN EDGES OF
MONTANA...WITH LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.