Red Flag Warning 27, NWS Glasgow, MT

212 
WWUS85 KGGW 122029
RFWGGW

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
229 PM MDT WED SEP 12 2012

MTZ120-122-134>137-131030-
/O.NEW.KGGW.FW.A.0022.120914T1700Z-120915T0200Z/
/O.CON.KGGW.FW.W.0027.000000T0000Z-120913T0200Z/
FORT PECK RESERVATION-DANIELS-ROOSEVELT-SHERIDAN-DAWSON-MCCONE-
PRAIRIE-RICHLAND-WIBAUX-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-
LITTLE ROCKIES-
LOWER MISSOURI RIVER BREAKS INCLUDING CHARLES M. RUSSELL REFUGE-
SOUTHERN PETROLEUM-SOUTHERN GARFIELD-
229 PM MDT WED SEP 12 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 120...
122...134...135...136 AND 137...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 120...122...134...135...136 AND 137...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GLASGOW HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR WIND AND VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING. 

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 120...122...134...135... 
  136 AND 137. 

* WINDS...FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
  UP TO 30 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 8 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...A COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS...VERY LOW RELATIVE 
  HUMIDITY...AND VERY DRY FUELS WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE 
  GROWTH POTENTIAL. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THESE
AREAS OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING AND THIS FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

&&

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

934 
WWUS85 KGGW 130205
RFWGGW

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
805 PM MDT WED SEP 12 2012

MTZ120-122-134>137-131100-
/O.EXP.KGGW.FW.W.0027.000000T0000Z-120913T0200Z/
/O.CON.KGGW.FW.A.0022.120914T1700Z-120915T0200Z/
FORT PECK RESERVATION-DANIELS-ROOSEVELT-SHERIDAN-DAWSON-MCCONE-
PRAIRIE-RICHLAND-WIBAUX-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-
LITTLE ROCKIES-
LOWER MISSOURI RIVER BREAKS INCLUDING CHARLES M. RUSSELL REFUGE-
SOUTHERN PETROLEUM-SOUTHERN GARFIELD-
805 PM MDT WED SEP 12 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 120...122...134... 135...136 AND 137...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING HAS
WINDS HAVE CALMED DOWN AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAVE RECOVERED.

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR
 FIRE WEATHER ZONES 120...122...134...135...136 AND 137...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GLASGOW HAS A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
FOR WIND AND VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. 

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 120...122...134...135... 
  136 AND 137. 

* WINDS...FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
  UP TO 30 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 8 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...A COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS...VERY LOW RELATIVE 
  HUMIDITY...AND VERY DRY FUELS WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE 
  GROWTH POTENTIAL. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THESE
AREAS OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING AND THIS FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

&&

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THESE
AREAS OF THIS FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

&&

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
905 PM MDT TUE SEP 11 2012

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO AROUND 10 MPH AT 03Z.
WILL ALLOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE FOR FORT PECK LAKE. WITH
VERY LOW DEWPOINTS OVER THE AREA...WILL LOWER TONIGHT'S LOWS IN
SOME AREAS PRONE TO COLD AIR DRAINAGE. WILL ALSO ALLOW RED FLAG
WARNING TO EXPIRE IN UPDATE. FORRESTER

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES MOVING INTO CENTRAL CANADA. A FLAT RIDGE EXISTS OFF THE
CANADIAN WEST COAST.

LOTS OF DRY AIR HAS MIXED TO ABOUT 600 MB TODAY. SOME MOISTURE
EXISTS AT AND ABOVE THIS LEVEL AND IS SEEN WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT.
SOME OF THIS DEVELOPMENT MAY SPAWN SOME VIRGA AND MAY KEEP BREEZY
CONDITIONS GOING UNTIL ABOUT SUNSET.

A REINFORCEMENT OF THE TROUGH LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH LATE WEDNESDAY
AGAIN BRINGING A FEW CLOUDS. THEN THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES RISING FROM 550 DM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO ABOUT 562 DM THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
YIELD A TEMPERATURE RISE INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES.

COOL TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS MAY PRODUCE A FROST IN SOME
PLACES. THIS HAS BEEN ADDRESSED IN A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
JAMBA

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE OVER THE GREAT BASIN BRINGS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
MONTANA...SETTING UP WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
EASTERN MONTANA. A DEVELOPING LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING
IN A MILD SOUTHERLY BREEZE. THE RESULT WILL BE THERMAL RIDGING AND
TEMPERATURES RAMPING UP 10F-15F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES SLIDING ACROSS
NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES WILL KNOCK THE RIDGE
DOWN SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL ONLY COOL DOWN SATURDAY HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES FROM FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE WORKS ITS
WAY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FINALLY BRINGING THE
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO
BECOME CLOSER IN TIMING AND LOCATION. BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS RUN
A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA BETWEEN 18Z SUNDAY TO
00Z MONDAY. THEREFORE SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH MONDAY AND TUESDAY HIGHS AROUND 10F DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

THE FEW CHANGES THAT WERE MADE WERE FOR POPS/WX SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH RUNNING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE HUDSON BAY. WEST OF THIS A LARGE
RIDGE RUNS FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO SOUTHERN IDAHO AND INTO
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH NORTHEAST MONTANA DIRECTLY BELOW IT.
FURTHER WEST A BROAD TROUGH EXISTS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH A
BROAD WEAK EXTENSION DIPPING DEEPLY SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC OCEAN.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A RIDGE REMAIN DOMINATE OVER THE
AREA WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
ANTICIPATE A WARMING TREND.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS TAKE THE TROUGH OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND MOVE IT ONTO THE CANADIAN PLAINS. THIS
TAPS INTO ARCTIC AIR OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES AND DRIVES IT
SOUTH INTO THE HIGH AND GREAT PLAINS. THIS SHOULD COOL
TEMPERATURES DOWN YET AGAIN AND MAY PROVIDE A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WHILE DOING IT. IF CLOUD COVER ABATES IN LATER MODEL
RUNS... WHICH IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED...WIDESPREAD FREEZING
TEMPERATURES COULD BE FELT FOR LOWS.

MONDAY ONWARD...SURPRISING AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT
MODELS AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ON THE LARGE
SCALE. A LARGE RIDGE REDEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US AS
THE TROUGH OF COLD AIR IS SHOVED OFF EAST. THIS WILL PLACE NEMONT
IN A WARMING NORTHWESTERN FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TOMORROW WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE LATE
MORNING...LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING.

SMOKE FROM ON-GOING FIRES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES COULD
PRODUCE HAZE THAT MAY INTRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES FOR
ALL TERMINALS. WITH FIRE DANGER HIGH THIS WEEK... NEW FIRE STARTS
ARE POSSIBLE. RSMITH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST MONTANA HAS BEEN ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE AT 9 PM THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO
AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE REGION AND RH IS NOW AROUND 20 PERCENT.

HOWEVER...ANOTHER ENERGETIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE THE WIND WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AT THIS
POINT...THE NORTHEAST ZONE 120 HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. A NEW RED FLAG WARNING MAY
BE NEED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
917 PM MDT TUE SEP 11 2012

MTZ016>027-059>062-121200-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
DANIELS-SHERIDAN-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-PETROLEUM-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
RICHLAND-DAWSON-PRAIRIE-WIBAUX-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-
917 PM MDT TUE SEP 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MANY VALLEY AND LOW LYING
AREAS OF NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING
THAT MAY IMPACT TENDER VEGETATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
MAY INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN DUE TO CONTINUED LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS.

BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
LOW LYING AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.