Red Flag Warning 18, NWS Glasgow, MT

433 
WWUS85 KGGW 070858
RFWGGW

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
258 AM MDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HEIGHTENED FOR TUESDAY...

.A SMALL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SETTING OFF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A WIND
SHIFT. THIS...COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ALONG...WEST...AND SOUTH OF FORT PECK LAKE WILL ACT TO INCREASE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

MTZ135>137-072200-
/O.CON.KGGW.FW.W.0018.120807T1600Z-120808T0300Z/
LITTLE ROCKIES-
LOWER MISSOURI RIVER BREAKS INCLUDING CHARLES M. RUSSELL REFUGE-
SOUTHERN PETROLEUM-SOUTHERN GARFIELD-
258 AM MDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 135...136 AND 137...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
9 PM MDT THIS EVENING. 

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 135...136 AND 137.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 11 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY...GUSTY WINDS AND 
  AMPLE DRY FUELS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE 
  GROWTH. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THESE
AREAS OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

805 
WWUS85 KGGW 072059
RFWGGW

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
259 PM MDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HEIGHTENED FOR TODAY...

.A SMALL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SETTING OFF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND A WIND SHIFT. THIS...COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ALONG...WEST...AND SOUTH OF FORT PECK LAKE WILL ACT TO INCREASE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

MTZ135>137-080300-
/O.CON.KGGW.FW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-120808T0300Z/
LITTLE ROCKIES-
LOWER MISSOURI RIVER BREAKS INCLUDING CHARLES M. RUSSELL REFUGE-
SOUTHERN PETROLEUM-SOUTHERN GARFIELD-
259 PM MDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 135...
136 AND 137...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING.

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 135...136 AND 137.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 14 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY...GUSTY WINDS AND 
  AMPLE DRY FUELS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE 
  GROWTH. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THESE
AREAS OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

110 
WWUS85 KGGW 080247
RFWGGW

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
847 PM MDT TUE AUG 7 2012


MTZ135>137-080400-
/O.EXP.KGGW.FW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-120808T0300Z/
LITTLE ROCKIES-
LOWER MISSOURI RIVER BREAKS INCLUDING CHARLES M. RUSSELL REFUGE-
SOUTHERN PETROLEUM-SOUTHERN GARFIELD-
847 PM MDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 135...136 AND
137...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING. 

NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO AROUND 10 MPH AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL RISE THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. 

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
254 PM MDT MON AUG 6 2012

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD SHOWS THE LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER OVER A WIDE EXPANSE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS REGIONS WITH AN ARCHING RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TO THE EAST IS A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY. TO THE WEST ANOTHER LONG WAVE
UPPER TROUGH IS ANCHORED BY A CLOSED LOW STORM SYSTEM IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST...NORTHEAST
MONTANA CONTINUES WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT HAS
BROUGHT CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO TODAY. A BROAD BUT
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE IS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ROCKIES
TODAY AND CAN EASILY BE SEEN ON THE VISUAL GOES. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL MONTANA
PRAIRIE THIS EVENING GENERATING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN
SHOWERS. ISOLATED STORMS COULD CLIP OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
AREAS TONIGHT. A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE CAN BE SEEN ON THE GOES
VISUAL. IT IS OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN
SASKATCHEWAN THAT MIGHT SAG SOUTH OVER OUR NORTHEAST AREAS, THE
MORE LIKELY RESULT WILL BE INCREASED CLOUDS AND A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...BECOMES A BIT MORE INTERESTING AS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. A LEE SURFACE TROUGH
WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS BECOMES THE FOCAL
POINT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED...THERE MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL WINDS AND BULK
SHEAR TO INITIATE A STRONG LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM. THEREFORE SPC
HAS PUT A SEE TEXT MESSAGE IN THEIR CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK IN WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. BUFKIT INDICATES PERIODS WITH INVERTED V SOUNDING
PROFILES WHICH COULD PRODUCE WINDS GUSTS. AFTERNOON WINDS LOOKS
THE STRONGEST SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER IN THE AREAS WITH THE
LOWEST RH. THE COMBINATION OF WINDS...LOW RH AND ISOLATED POSSIBLY
DRY THUNDERSTORMS RAISES FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SEE FIRE WX
DISCUSSION BELOW.

WEDNESDAY...REBOUNDING UPPER RIDGE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER HOT AND
DRY DAY WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...IN THE 90S. SCT

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE...ONE MID WEEK PASSES MAINLY TO THE NORTH...WITH ANOTHER
SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONE ON THE WEEKEND. MODELS STILL TRENDING TOWARD
A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING OUT OF CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST. EBERT

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS CENTERED OVER EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO. THIS LEAVES NORTHEAST MONTANA ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE WITH SLIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY MORNING... A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA... BEST CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS LOOK TO REMAIN IN
SASKATCHEWAN SO WILL NOT GO TOO HIGH ON POPS. SEEMS WITH THE MID
LEVEL WARMING THAT CONVECTION WILL HAVE A HARD TIME SUSTAINING
ITSELF.

THROUGH THE WEEKEND... MID LEVEL WARMING... UPPER RIDGING AND THE
LEE TROUGH WELL TO THE WEST SHOULD KEEP THINGS FAIRLY QUIET
CONVECTION WISE.

THEN COMES MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE EC AND GFS BEGIN TO PUSH THE
SURFACE TROUGH TO THE EAST AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DIG
SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
BOTH MODELS DO DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR CONVECTION. FOR NOW NOT GOING TO DROP
TEMPERATURES LIKE THE MODEL SUGGEST NOR PUSH POPS UP YET. WOULD
LIKE TO SEE SOME MORE RUNS BEFORE INTRODUCING A MAJOR CHANGE ALONG
THOSE LINES IN THE FORECAST.                 PROTON

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST
MONTANA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
RAE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE AREA TUESDAY WILL
INCREASE WINDS AND BRING A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
NORTHEAST MONTANA.

MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 137 AND SOUTHERN
AREAS OF ZONE 136. AFTERNOON WINDS SHOULD REACH SPEEDS OF 10-15
MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHILE DAYTIME LOW RH VALUES BOTTOM OUT
IN THE MID TEENS. 700MB WINDS...ALTHOUGH NOT STRONG...LOOK TO BE
5-10 MPH FASTER THAN SURFACE WINDS...AND BUFKIT REVEALS INVERTED V
PROFILES IN THE AFTERNOON. SO THERE IS A WIND GUST POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER WITH MARGINAL WINDS HAVE ELECTED TO HOLD OFF WITH ANY
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

A SURFACE TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. MODELS PUT THESE STORMS IN AREAS
OF HIGHER RH. NONE OF THE MODELS BRING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE
WITH THEM...SO DO NOT EXPECT WETTING RAINS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP...EXCEPT POSSIBLY NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER IN LATE
AFTERNOON WHERE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE STRONGER. SCT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW