Special Weather Statement, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
632 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2012

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX
TAF SITES...BUT ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE TRIED TO DEVELOP TO THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THINK THESE STORMS WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
MENTION VCTS AROUND 1-2Z. WILL HAVE TO WATCH KAFW AND KFTW FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN PARKER COUNTY TO AFFECT THESE TERMINALS
NEAR 1Z. CURRENT TRACK OF THESE CELLS BRING THEM NORTH OF THE
AIRPORT...SO THINK THE VCTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR NOW...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THE TIME FRAME WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST
LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AIRPORTS IS 5Z TO 9Z WHEN THE COMPLEX NEAR
VERNON AND CHILDRESS MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE
ENVIRONMENT OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW THESE TO
CONTINUE AFTER SUNSET. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST OR
DISSIPATED NEAR SUNRISE AND A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED TOMORROW.
WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE SSE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA COULD CAUSE THEM TO TURN FROM VARIABLE
DIRECTIONS WITH SPEEDS UP TO 35 KNOTS.

85/NH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2012/
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SURGED NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS.
DEWPOINTS THAT WERE IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S YESTERDAY ARE NOW
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS. THE LAST
SEVERAL FRAMES OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE CU
FIELD EXTENDING FROM THE TX PANHANDLE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS INTO
LOUISIANA. THE MOST CONGESTED CU APPEARS TO BE ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. THIS WHOLE
AREA IS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE HIGH BASED INSTABILITY ON THE
ORDER OF 1500-2000J/KG ALONG WITH VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. FOCUS FOR CONVERGENCE IS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE INCREASING WITH THE APPROACH OF A
S/W TROF MOVING OUT OF WESTERN KANSAS. WITH TEMPERATURES NOW IN
THE LOW 100S IN MANY AREAS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS UPPER FORCING OVERSPREADS
THE AREA. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTHWEST
AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. LOCALLY RUN SEVERE WX PARAMETERS
INDICATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 30KTS WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR AT LEAST SOME ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE OF THE TTU
3KM WRF AND SPC 4KM WRF...AND WILL SHOW INCREASING POPS THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING. GIVEN THE VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS APPROACHING 50 DEGREES...DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS. ANY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WILL POSE AN ENHANCED WIND THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE HAIL. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL SHOW
POPS TAPERING OFF TOWARD MORNING. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN NEAR 100 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS.

THERE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE POP FORECAST BY LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
STILL BE AROUND...ALTHOUGH MUCH MORE DIFFUSE. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
IS GENERATING ANOTHER CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS AND MOVING THEM IN
OUR GENERAL DIRECTION. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE THE POPS OUT FOR
TOMORROW NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED IF A MORE NOTABLE FORCING MECHANISM CAN BE IDENTIFIED
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. SIMILAR TO TODAY...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WOULD POSE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.

STILL ON TAP ARE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN US. THIS WILL ALLOW A DEEP TROF TO DIG ACROSS THE
EASTERN US SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT...FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...
INTO NORTH TEXAS. THE FRONT SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE AREA BY
FRIDAY BUT WITH STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND THE BOUNDARY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO HANG UP
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY PROVIDE SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL THROUGH SUNDAY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
30/40 POPS GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND SHOW TEMPS COOLING INTO
THE LOWER 90S.

DUNN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  99  78  99  76 /  50  10  10  10  20
WACO, TX              77 101  76 100  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             72  95  74  96  72 /  60  20  10  20  30
DENTON, TX            74  99  76  98  73 /  60  20  10  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          75  98  77  98  74 /  60  20  10  20  30
DALLAS, TX            79  99  79  99  76 /  50  10  10  10  20
TERRELL, TX           75  97  76  98  74 /  50  10  10  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         75  97  75  98  74 /  30  10  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            75 100  76 100  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  99  75  98  72 /  30  10  10  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

85/85

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
347 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2012

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-151200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
347 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM COMANCHE...TO WACO...TO PALESTINE.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO PRESENT A HAZARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20.

BREEZY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...GENERALLY WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.

LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE REGION-WIDE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 THROUGH THE EVENING. VERY LIMITED SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS
OVERNIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
718 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 PM     TSTM WND GST     DENISON                 33.75N  96.55W
08/14/2012  E62 MPH          GRAYSON            TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            62 MPH WINDS REPORTED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HWY 91
            AND FM120

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
734 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OLNEY                   33.37N  98.77W
08/14/2012                   YOUNG              TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES UPROOTED AND HOMES WITH ROOF AND PORCH
            DAMAGE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
745 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2012

TXZ102-103-117-118-150115-
DENTON TX-TARRANT TX-WISE TX-PARKER TX-
745 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN DENTON COUNTY
  NORTHEASTERN PARKER COUNTY
  NORTHWESTERN TARRANT COUNTY
  SOUTHERN WISE COUNTY

AT 744 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTH OF BRIAR...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE AURORA...AZLE...BLUE
MOUND...BOYD...BRIAR...CORRAL CITY...EAGLE MOUNTAIN...HASLET...
JUSTIN...LAKE WORTH...LAKESIDE...NORTHLAKE...PECAN ACRES...PELICAN
BAY...RENO...ROANOKE...SAGINAW...SANSOM PARK...SPRINGTOWN...
BOONSVILLE...COTTONDALE AND POOLVILLE.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

IN ADDITION...ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED BETWEEN
POOLVILLE AND BOONSVILLE MOVING NORTHEAST.

LAT...LON 3322 9753 3309 9716 3280 9738 3275 9776
      3307 9793 3311 9792
TIME...MOT...LOC 0044Z 288DEG 16KT 3304 9752

82/JLD

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