Special Weather Statement, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
707 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION. STRONGEST
STORM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST INSIDE OF DALLAS COUNTY AND HAS
SENT A STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SURGING WESTWARD. WILL TEMPO
EASTERLY WINDS AT KDAL GUSTING TO 30KTS WITH THIS OUTFLOW AND
MONITOR WESTWARD PROGRESSION FOR AMDS TO DFW AND OTHERS.
OTHERWISE...ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. EXPECT MORE SCATTERED AFTN
CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY BUT AGAIN AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS COVERAGE
IS TOO SPARSE FOR MENTION IN THE CURRENT TAF. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF CHAOTIC WINDS BEHIND OUTFLOW.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012/
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTH TEXAS AGAIN TODAY WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.

SIMILAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
AGAIN TOMORROW AS NORTH TEXAS REMAINS IN DIFFLUENT NORTH FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND A DEVELOPING
TROUGH TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COMPLEX
OF STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE MEAN STORM MOTION WITH THIS COMPLEX
COULD TRACK THE SYSTEM ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES DOWN THE
PLAINS IT WILL BRING A FRONT WITH IT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO OUR CWA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AND LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE
EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY IS DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE AT THIS TIME BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THE MODELS
WANT TO RETREAT THE FRONT A LITTLE ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN PUSH
IT THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA ON FRIDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION...ENDING RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHO WILL STILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

OVER THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
REGION BUT WILL STILL BE CENTERED WEST OF NORTH TEXAS. THE ECMWF
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TO MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA ON
SATURDAY BUT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE RED
RIVER. HOWEVER...IF THIS SCENARIO DOES DEVELOP...REMNANTS FROM
THIS COMPLEX COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STILL CENTERED WEST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER MCS COULD
POSSIBLY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE REGION. EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION AND A DRY
FORECAST CONTINUES INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW BUT THEN WE WILL
SEE SOME RELIEF AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 90S WITH
SOME SPOTS AROUND 100 DEGREES. HOWEVER...THE TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERS OVER THE REGION.

82/JLD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  80 104  79 100  78 /  30  20  20  30  20
WACO, TX              77 103  77 100  78 /  20  20  20  30  20
PARIS, TX             75  99  74  97  75 /  30  20  20  30  20
DENTON, TX            79 102  78  99  76 /  30  20  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          79 101  77  99  76 /  30  20  20  30  20
DALLAS, TX            84 104  80 100  79 /  30  20  20  30  20
TERRELL, TX           80 101  78  98  77 /  30  20  20  30  20
CORSICANA, TX         77 102  77  98  77 /  20  20  20  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            75 101  75  99  76 /  20  20  20  30  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     78 103  75 101  76 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
348 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-081200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
348 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING ALONG AND
NORTH OF A COMANCHE TO CANTON LINE. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND HAIL LARGER THAN
1 INCH IN DIAMETER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SOME LOW CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A GOLDTHWAITE...TO
ATHENS LINE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY REQUESTED THROUGH 9 PM...MAINLY NORTH OF A
COMANCHE TO CANTON LINE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
703 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0702 PM     HAIL             2 NW CHANDLER           32.32N  95.49W
08/07/2012  E1.00 INCH       HENDERSON          TX   PUBLIC

            QUARTER HAIL NEAR CHANDLER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
704 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     HAIL             5 E EDOM                32.37N  95.53W
08/07/2012  E1.00 INCH       VAN ZANDT          TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
707 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

TXZ119-080030-
DALLAS TX-
707 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN DALLAS COUNTY

AT 705 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEARING THE UNIVERSITY PARK AREA FROM THE EAST AT
25 MPH.  WINDS UP TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PART OF DALLAS COUNTY.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STRONG WINDS INCLUDE
ADDISON...CARROLLTON...COCKRELL HILL...COPPELL...DALLAS...FARMERS
BRANCH...HIGHLAND PARK...IRVING...RICHARDSON AND UNIVERSITY PARK.

LAT...LON 3285 9674 3270 9676 3277 9702 3299 9703
      3299 9691 3297 9663
TIME...MOT...LOC 0005Z 113DEG 20KT 3287 9674

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
712 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

TXZ134-080045-
ELLIS TX-
712 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WESTERN ELLIS COUNTY

AT 712 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTH OF WAXAHACHIE...MOVING SOUTHWEST
AT 10 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BARDWELL...ITALY AND
WAXAHACHIE.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3216 9673 3211 9684 3220 9697 3246 9688
      3232 9664
TIME...MOT...LOC 0012Z 035DEG 8KT 3225 9683

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
722 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0719 PM     HAIL             1 SE HUTCHINS           32.64N  96.71W
08/07/2012  E1.00 INCH       DALLAS             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER HAIL AT I45 AND WINTERGREEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
745 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

TXZ119-134-080115-
DALLAS TX-ELLIS TX-
745 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHERN DALLAS COUNTY
  NORTHERN ELLIS COUNTY

AT 745 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF RED OAK...MOVING SOUTHWEST
AT 15 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CEDAR HILL...DESOTO...
DUNCANVILLE...FERRIS...GLENN HEIGHTS...GRAND PRAIRIE...LANCASTER...
MIDLOTHIAN...OAK LEAF...OVILLA...PALMER...RED OAK...WAXAHACHIE...
WILMER AND CEDAR HILL STATE PARK.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3239 9686 3252 9706 3255 9706 3255 9704
      3272 9704 3263 9666 3253 9651 3251 9651
      3250 9650 3248 9651 3235 9645
TIME...MOT...LOC 0045Z 036DEG 11KT 3254 9676