Special Weather Statement, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
346 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2012

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING NEAR A SURFACE
BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS
WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH AT AROUND 10 MPH AND HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN TOWARD SUNSET.

WE WILL SEE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND HAVE KEPT/PLACED 20 PERCENT POPS THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. THE GFS BRINGS A FRONT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF
NORTH TEXAS BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY AND THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF ALSO BRINGS A FRONT
INTO NORTH TEXAS BUT IS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE. FOR NOW HAVE
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE ECMWF WHICH IS DRIER...PRECIPITATION
WISE...THAN THE GFS. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BY A FEW DEGREES LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  81 104  80 102  80 /  20  20  20  20  20
WACO, TX              75 102  76 101  77 /  20  20  10  20  20
PARIS, TX             76 100  76  98  74 /  20  20  10  20  20
DENTON, TX            79 104  78 102  77 /  20  20  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          78 103  77 102  77 /  20  20  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            82 103  82 102  80 /  20  20  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           78 101  76 100  76 /  20  20  20  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         77 101  77 100  77 /  20  20  10  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            73 101  74 100  74 /  10  20  10  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     78 103  74 101  73 /  20  10  20  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ107-122-123-135-
146>148-160>162-174-175.

&&

05/58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
455 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2012

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-071215-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
455 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH BEST
CHANCES GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE DOWNBURST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG AND EAST OF A SULPHUR
SPRINGS...TO CORSICANA...TO CAMERON LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM TUESDAY EVENING
FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A SULPHUR SPRINGS...TO CORSICANA...TO
CAMERON LINE.

A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY DOWNBURST
WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREATS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-20
THIS EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
516 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2012

TXZ093-062245-
GRAYSON TX-
516 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHERN GRAYSON COUNTY

AT 515 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
CLUSTER OF SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORM OCCURRING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PART OF GRAYSON COUNTY...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE COLLINSVILLE...DORCHESTER...
GUNTER...HOWE...SHERMAN...VAN ALSTYNE AND WHITESBORO.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH NAY OF
THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3362 9652 3340 9653 3340 9665 3343 9693
      3377 9693
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 345DEG 7KT 3361 9672

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
524 PM CDT MON AUG 06 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PROSPER                 33.23N  96.82W
08/06/2012                   COLLIN             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL 4 INCH DIAMETER TREES DOWN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
524 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2012

TXZ094-105-062300-
FANNIN TX-HUNT TX-
524 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHERN FANNIN COUNTY
  NORTHEASTERN HUNT COUNTY

AT 524 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BONHAM...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BAILEY...HONEY GROVE AND
WOLFE CITY.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE
STORMS.

LAT...LON 3330 9586 3327 9612 3350 9621 3360 9586
TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 330DEG 13KT 3343 9609

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
531 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2012

TXZ095-062300-
LAMAR TX-
531 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN LAMAR COUNTY

AT 531 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTH OF HUGO...MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BLOSSOM AND PARIS.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3389 9554 3390 9551 3388 9549 3389 9546
      3387 9539 3389 9531 3359 9530 3357 9561
      3391 9564 3393 9561 3393 9555
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 351DEG 23KT 3381 9545

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
544 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2012

TXZ094-105-106-062315-
DELTA TX-FANNIN TX-HUNT TX-
544 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN FANNIN COUNTY
  NORTHEASTERN HUNT COUNTY
  WESTERN DELTA COUNTY

AT 544 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF COMMERCE...MOVING SOUTH AT
10 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE COMMERCE AND WOLFE CITY.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3329 9576 3327 9578 3325 9579 3324 9586
      3319 9587 3317 9617 3348 9616 3348 9586
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 346DEG 10KT 3335 9604

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
601 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2012

TXZ095-062330-
LAMAR TX-
601 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL LAMAR COUNTY

AT 602 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES EAST OF PARIS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BLOSSOM...DEPORT AND PARIS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3378 9537 3365 9531 3352 9530 3348 9536
      3348 9559 3372 9566
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 335DEG 13KT 3366 9547