Special Weather Statement, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1227 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

.AVIATION...
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS CONVECTIVE REASONING WHICH IS ATTACHED
BELOW. OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH S/SW
WINDS AT 7-15KT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OR AN UPGRADE TO PREVAILING TSRA...BUT RIGHT
NOW CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR THAT. FOR WACO WILL KEEP
CONVECTION OUT OF FORECAST AS IT SHOULD STAY NW/N.

.../PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION/...
HAVE UPDATED METROPLEX TAF FORECAST TO INCLUDE VCTS FROM 0Z TO
5Z /7PM TO MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME/. HIGH RESOLUTION WRF GUIDANCE IS
PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE IN SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
RED RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSHING IT SOUTH WITH STRONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE NAM/GFS AGREE WITH A MORE AGGRESSIVE
CONVECTIVE FORECAST ALONG THE RED RIVER...BUT PROBABLY DO NOT HAVE
THE RESOLUTION TO SHOW THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THESE OUTFLOWS.
WILL KEEP PREVAILING THUNDER OUT OF METROPLEX TAFS...BUT WILL
INCLUDE A TEMPO TO MENTION AT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH THIS
EVENING. TR.92

&&

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED MORNING CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER
THE LAST FEW HOURS AS MIXING OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LIKELY
OCCURRED. UPPER PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH FAVORED AREAS BEING
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED
ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND GREATEST COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THIS AREA. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO
AFTERNOON POPS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BUT DID LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES
A COUPLE OF DEGREES GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER. THINGS MAY GET A LITTLE
MORE INTERESTING TONIGHT AS SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
DEVELOP A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND MOVE THEM SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS. WHILE THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF DO
ALSO INDICATE THIS CLUSTER...IT IS THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
WHICH INDICATES THAT THESE STORMS MAY GENERATE SUFFICIENT OUTFLOW
TO CONTINUE SOUTHWARD INTO AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW WILL
UPDATE POPS FOR TONIGHT TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH
INTO THE I-20 CORRIDOR. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FULL SUITE OF MORNING GUIDANCE.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT THU JUL 26 2012/
CURRENTLY...AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
PLAINS...SOUTHWEST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
ALSO IN PLACE NEAR THIS SAME AXIS. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW
LEVEL FOCUS AND UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY EVENING FROM
SOUTHERN KANSAS...INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE STORMS SLOWLY
MOVED SOUTH AND NOW HAVE BEEN WEAKENING/DECREASING IN COVERAGE. BY
THIS AFTERNOON...THIS TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED ALONG
A LINE FROM THE UPPER MID-WEST INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND THE
SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE STALLED IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
ALTHOUGH THIS TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE WEAKER THAN
YESTERDAY...ANOTHER ROUND CONVECTION WILL INITIATE IN OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHWARD. THE MAIN TIMING
FOR THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE AFTER 00Z AND WILL SHOW 20-40 POPS
FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
ACTIVITY MOVING SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER FROM THE OKLAHOMA
CONVECTION. THIS FORECAST IS SUPPORTED BY THE WRF/NAM MODEL
SUITE...WHILE THE GFS REMAINS MOSTLY DRY. THIS GENERAL TREND OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OCCURRED LAST
NIGHT...AND SEE NO REASON FOR THIS NOT TO OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT. THE
MAIN POTENTIAL SEVERE HAZARD WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT THE
OVERALL THREAT OF THIS IS LOW. WE WOULD NEED A STORM TO DEVELOP AT
PEAK HEATING FOR THE THREAT TO BE REALIZED.

ONE INTERESTING THING TO WATCH FOR THIS MORNING IS THE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT LOW NORTHEAST OF
LUBBOCK. CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED IN THIS AREA FOR OVER 8 HOURS
AND SOMETIMES THIS CAN LEAD TO A DEVELOPMENT OF A MID-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE CENTER DUE TO LATENT HEAT PROCESSES. THE LAST HOUR OF THE
RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF CYCLONIC TURNING WITHIN THE
REFLECTIVITES. THE 06Z NAM IS THROUGH 24 HOURS AT THIS TIME...AND
SEEMS TO BE FORECASTING THIS TO OCCUR AS WELL. THIS MAY LEAD TO A
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR POPS IN THE WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST. WILL FORECAST POPS FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH...EXTENDING FROM COMANCHE TO DENTON TO BONHAM FOR THE 18Z-
00Z TIME FRAME.

FOR FRIDAY...THE WEAKENING TROUGH AXIS WILL LIKELY ONLY BECOME A
WEAKER SHEAR AXIS IN PLACE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER...AS HEIGHT
RISES COMMENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
MAIN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MID-WEST. WE SHOULD STILL SEE A FEW
STORMS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY AS LITTLE TO NO
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IF FORECASTED...BUT THE OVERALL COVERAGE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS MUCH AS THE AFTERNOON STORMS EXPECTED IN
OKLAHOMA TODAY AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THIS WEEKEND...THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE H70 HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CWA. THIS WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES IN THE 98-104 DEGREE RANGE. FORECASTED HEAT INDICES
FOR THE WEEKEND ARE NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND FUTURE
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO ASSESS THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...BUT SHOULD SLOWLY MIGRATE WESTWARD BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

85/NH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 101  79 100  79 102 /  20  50  20  10   5
WACO, TX              98  77  99  76 100 /  10  10   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             98  75  96  75  99 /  10  60  30  10   5
DENTON, TX           100  79 100  76 102 /  20  60  30  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX         100  78  98  75 101 /  20  50  30  10   5
DALLAS, TX           101  79 100  79 102 /  20  50  20  10   5
TERRELL, TX           99  77  98  76 100 /  10  40  20  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         98  77  98  76 100 /  10  20  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            98  74  99  74  99 /  10  10   5  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     98  76  99  74 102 /  20  40  20  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

 /

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
313 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

TXZ100-101-262045-
JACK TX-YOUNG TX-
313 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WEST CENTRAL JACK COUNTY
  EAST CENTRAL YOUNG COUNTY

AT 313 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF GRAHAM...MOVING EAST AT 5
MPH. THE COMMUNITY OF JERMYN IN WESTERN JACK COUNTY IS IN THE PATH
OF THIS STORM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3326 9822 3313 9846 3325 9859 3337 9843
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 255DEG 5KT 3324 9844