Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Fort Worth, TX

977 
WWUS54 KFWD 140214 RRA
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
914 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012

TXC113-257-397-140224-
/O.CAN.KFWD.SV.W.0201.000000T0000Z-120614T0230Z/
DALLAS TX-KAUFMAN TX-ROCKWALL TX-
914 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR ROCKWALL...NORTHWESTERN 
KAUFMAN AND NORTHEASTERN DALLAS COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

AT 914 PM CDT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING
WEAKENED AND WAS NO LONGER SEVERE...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3298 9664 3298 9630 3273 9630 3273 9672
      3299 9671 3299 9665
TIME...MOT...LOC 0214Z 357DEG 16KT 3285 9653

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
704 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...STRATUS POTENTIAL.

EAST-WEST BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE METROPLEX. MOISTURE POOLING
ENHANCED INSTABILITY AT THE HEAT OF THE DAY. WITH LITTLE
INHIBITION...CONVERGENCE WAS JUST ENOUGH TO INITIATE SEVERE STORMS
IN VICINITY OF KDFW AND KDAL. AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING FOR DFW
ADDRESSES SEVERE STORM WHICH IMPACTED THE TERMINAL COMPLEX...
CONTINUES THROUGH 730 PM FOR LIGHTNING. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE ONSET OF SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
COINCIDE WITH NIGHTFALL...BRINGING AN END TO THE ACTIVITY.

CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY TO DISRUPT LLJ DEVELOPMENT...AND STRATUS
INTRUSION LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL REASSESS WITH 03Z AND 06Z
ISSUANCES.

25

&&

.UPDATE...
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RESIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE METROPLEX THIS EVENING BEHIND COMPLEX OF RAIN/STORMS THAT HAS
MOVED INTO THE ARKLATEX. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAS
INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST HOUR AND ONE THUNDERSTORM HAS DEVELOPED
JUST WEST OF PLANO. LOCALLY RUN CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS INDICATES AN
AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY RIGHT UP INTO THE METROPLEX WITH
LITTLE INHIBITION. THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER COMPLEX OF RAIN/STORMS BASED
ON THE CU FIELD EXTENDING WELL BACK INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS. HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SOME DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
LATE EVENING ACROSS THIS PART OF NORTH TEXAS SO WILL UP POPS A BIT
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE
CONVECTION ACROSS WEST TEXAS AS THIS SAME GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR IT TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES. WILL WATCH
THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND ADJUST POPS OUT WEST IF IT
APPEARS THAT IT WILL MAKE IT IN.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012/
MCV CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHEAST
CWA TO CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 6 PM...THEN IT SHOULD MOVE EAST OF
THE CWA.

WE FEEL THE GFS PRECIPITATION OUTPUT WAS OVERDONE FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY WHEN COMPARED TO THE WRF...NAM...EC AND CANADIAN....THUS WE
RELIED ON THE THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION WRF
REFLECTIVITY OUTPUT. SO WE WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED CHANCES OVER THE
NORTHEAST CWA THIS EVENING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND FAR EAST- CENTRAL COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT WHERE
NOCTURNAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IF THE MCV TURNS MORE SOUTHEAST
INTO EAST TEXAS PER SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS. ALSO LATE
TONIGHT...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT ANOTHER DYING MCS OVER
WEST OKLAHOMA COULD PUSH SOME CONVECTION DOWN INTO THE WESTERN RED
RIVER VALLEY. WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG THE RED
RIVER VALLEY COUNTIES AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES ON THURSDAY DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR THE RED RIVER AND
LINGERING VORTICITY OVER EAST TEXAS.

FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
WEDNESDAY...A LATE SEASON CUT OFF UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THEN RETROGRADES WESTWARD WHILE UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MERGES WITH A PACIFIC
RIDGE REPLACES THE RETROGRADING UPPER LOW. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE UPPER HIGH WILL SLIDE WESTWARD AND LEAVE NORTH TEXAS
UNDER WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE
MODELS OF THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS ARE INDICATING A TROPICAL SYSTEM
DEVELOPING NEAR YUCATAN ON WEDNESDAY THAT MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARD
THE TEXAS OR LOUISIANA COAST BY NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THEN SLIGHTLY
WARMER NEXT WEEK.   75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  73  92  74  92  73 /  20   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              73  93  73  93  72 /  10   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             69  90  70  90  69 /  30  20   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            72  91  73  91  72 /  20   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          71  91  72  91  71 /  30   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            74  92  74  92  73 /  20   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           71  91  73  92  71 /  20   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         72  92  73  92  72 /  10   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            74  93  73  93  71 /  10   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  92  71  92  70 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

25/91

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
602 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-141200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
602 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
BOWIE TO FORT WORTH TO CANTON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO FAR EASTERN NORTH TEXAS. NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS.

DUNN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
800 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0747 PM     HAIL             GRAND PRAIRIE           32.75N  96.98W
06/13/2012  E1.75 INCH       DALLAS             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
810 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0752 PM     HAIL             GRAND PRAIRIE           32.75N  96.98W
06/13/2012  E2.75 INCH       DALLAS             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            INTERSECTION OF I-20 AND ROBINSON RD. WINDSHIELDS
            BROKEN. LOWERING OF CLOUD BASE AND APRNT SLIGHT ROTATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
811 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0803 PM     HAIL             NEW HOPE                33.21N  96.56W
06/13/2012  E1.00 INCH       COLLIN             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            QUARTER HAIL AT HWY 380 AND NEW HOPE ROAD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
812 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0747 PM     HAIL             DALLAS                  32.77N  96.78W
06/13/2012  E2.75 INCH       DALLAS             TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            REPORTED AT NORTHPARK MALL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
822 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0819 PM     HAIL             LEONARD                 33.38N  96.25W
06/13/2012  E4.25 INCH       FANNIN             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            SOFTBALL HAIL AND TREES/SHRUBS DOWN IN LEONARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
835 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0834 PM     HAIL             PARKER                  33.05N  96.62W
06/13/2012  E2.00 INCH       COLLIN             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            2-INCH HAIL IN PARKER