Severe Thunderstorm Warning 179, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
626 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...THUNDER POTENTIAL AND MVFR CIGS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT AT
LEAST THE DFW METROPLEX LATER THIS EVENING. A STATIONARY COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY LIES FROM NEAR NOCONA TO GRAHAM TO ALBANY. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
AND AFFECT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BETWEEN 03-06Z. CURRENT
CONVECTION NEAR COLEMAN TO EDEN MAY CONGEAL INTO A MCS THAT MAY
MOVE EAST AND REACH KACT LATER THIS EVENING...BUT WITH THE OVERALL
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS AND THE LOSS OF HEATING IN A FEW
HOURS...WILL NOT MENTION RAIN OR THUNDER IN THE KACT TAF AT THIS
TIME. ANY STORMS THAT DO REACH THE TAF TERMINALS COULD BE SEVERE
WITH A HIGH WIND AND HAIL THREAT...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT MANY QUESTIONS
STILL REMAIN ABOUT WHEN AND WHERE THEY WOULD DEVELOP...THEREFORE WILL
NOT MENTION THUNDER IN THE TAF FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON UNTIL WE SEE
WHERE THE FRONT OR BOUNDARIES REMAIN FROM TONIGHT/S CONVECTION.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT MVFR CIGS AROUND 1500 FEET COULD REACH THE
TAF SITES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT CONVECTION TONIGHT COULD
IMPACT THE DEVELOPMENT OR LOCATION OF THE STRATUS. FOR NOW...WILL
LEAVE THE MENTION OF MVFR CIGS IN OVERNIGHT BUT MAY NEED TO REMOVE
THIS WITH LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

AND FINALLY...WILL PREVAIL SOUTH WINDS AT ALL SITES UNTIL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST.
HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTION COULD PUSH THE FRONT INTO
THE DFW METROPLEX OVERNIGHT OR VERY NEAR THE METROPLEX RESULTING
IN NORTH OR VARIABLE WINDS.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012/
THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR MCALESTER OKLAHOMA TO
HOBBS NEW MEXICO AND HAS ALREADY ENTERED NORTHWESTERN YOUNG
COUNTY. WE STILL FEEL THAT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY
FROM EAST OKLAHOMA TO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY. WITH SUCH AN UNSTABLE
AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER NORTH TEXAS...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE RAPID WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLY RESULTING WITHIN 30 MINUTES
AFTER THE FIRST ECHOES APPEAR. EXPECT DEVELOPMENT TO BEGIN IN
OKLAHOMA AND OVER THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY WHERE INHIBITION IS THE LEAST
AND BUILD ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO OUR NORTH AND WEST COUNTIES
THIS EVENING THEN OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD BY MIDNIGHT AND
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. SPC/S SLIGHT RISK OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-
THIRDS OF NORTH TEXAS IS WARRANTED. ISOLATED DISCRETE CELLS WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR MESO CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT 23-03Z
AND VERY LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL THROUGH 04Z.

WITH THE FRONT REMAINING IN THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WE HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION. ALSO...WE EXPECT AN MCS TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM
THAT PROPAGATES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AS STARTED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...THIS IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW OVER WORKED THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES TONIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH NIGHT IF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE AND PRIMED.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS FORECAST WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
THAN THOSE OF TODAY. EXPECT CLOUD COVERAGE AND STORM ACTIVITY TO
RESULT IN HIGHS 88-92 ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20...AND IN THE MID 90S
TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S LINGER OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEK. 75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  92  76  90  74 /  30  30  40  30  10
WACO, TX              76  93  74  91  73 /  10  20  30  20  10
PARIS, TX             75  90  71  87  69 /  50  30  30  30  20
DENTON, TX            75  91  72  89  71 /  40  30  40  30  10
MCKINNEY, TX          74  90  74  89  70 /  40  30  40  30  20
DALLAS, TX            78  92  77  90  74 /  30  30  40  30  10
TERRELL, TX           76  91  74  88  72 /  40  30  30  30  20
CORSICANA, TX         77  93  74  91  72 /  20  20  30  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            76  95  73  92  72 /  10  20  20  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  91  72  90  70 /  40  20  40  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

82/58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
758 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-121200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
758 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL BE CONFINED ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM LAMPASAS TO WAXAHACHIE TO CANTON. SOME OF THIS STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTAINING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35 WHERE THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
GREATEST.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
848 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0843 PM     TSTM WND GST     OLNEY                   33.37N  98.77W
06/11/2012  E60 MPH          YOUNG              TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            60 MPH WINDS WERE ESTIMATED 6 MILES SOUTH OF OLNEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
908 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0903 PM     HAIL             PADGITT                 33.28N  98.92W
06/11/2012  E2.00 INCH       YOUNG              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEN EGG SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED 5 MILES ENE OF PADGITT
            VIA SPOTTER NETWORK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
914 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0854 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E NEWCASTLE           33.20N  98.73W
06/11/2012                   YOUNG              TX   PUBLIC

            2 POWER POLES BLOWN OVER ALONG US380

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
924 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0922 PM     HAIL             5 S BOWIE               33.50N  97.85W
06/11/2012  E0.88 INCH       MONTAGUE           TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            HEAVY NICKEL SIZED HAIL REPORTED 5 MILES SOUTH OF BOWIE
            ALONG HWY 59

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
931 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0919 PM     HAIL             5 WNW BOWIE             33.60N  97.93W
06/11/2012  E1.50 INCH       MONTAGUE           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PING PONG BALL SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED 5 MILES ENE OF
            VASHTI