Alert archive / Texas / Flash Flood Warnings in 2012

Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Fort Worth, TX

May 7, 2012Navarro County, Texas

NWS Fort Worth, TX issued this flash flood warning at May 7, 2012, 9:50 PM CDT for Navarro County, Texas. It was in force for 85 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 7, 2012, 9:50 PM CDT (02:50 UTC)
Expired: May 7, 2012, 11:15 PM CDT
In force: 85 min
Issued by: NWS Fort Worth, TX
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: None

County Navarro County, TX

The radar

The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 111 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 00:00Z, 2.8 hours before the alert went out and 125 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1627 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -79 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 783 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 5 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 42 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 85 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

564 
WGUS54 KFWD 080250
FFWFWD
TXC349-080415-
/O.NEW.KFWD.FF.W.0018.120508T0250Z-120508T0415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
950 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  EASTERN NAVARRO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

* UNTIL 1115 PM CDT

* AT 949 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED AN
  AREA OF HEAVY RAIN NEAR CORSICANA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.    
  FLOODING HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN THIS AREA AND ADDITIONAL     
  RAINFALL WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING  
  THROUGH 1115 PM CDT. LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS REPORTED WATER 
  FILLING ROADWAYS ACROSS THE CITY OF CORSICANA. 

* LOCATIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY HEAVY RAIN
  INCLUDE...KERENS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODS. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT AT NIGHT TO TELL HOW
MUCH WATER IS ON THE ROADS OR IF THE ROAD HAS BEEN DAMAGED OR WASHED
AWAY. TAKE A DIFFERENT ROUTE TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION OR WAIT UNTIL
WATER RECEDES.

&&

LAT...LON 3185 9640 3220 9663 3233 9638 3230 9630
      3226 9628 3225 9624 3220 9620 3221 9615
      3217 9618 3215 9610 3209 9612 3208 9611
      3208 9606 3202 9606

$$


14

1 follow-up statement

248 
WGUS74 KFWD 080408
FFSFWD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1108 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

TXC349-080418-
/O.EXP.KFWD.FF.W.0018.000000T0000Z-120508T0415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NAVARRO TX-
1108 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR EASTERN NAVARRO COUNTY EXPIRES AT 1115
PM CDT...

THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ENDED ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...THEREFORE THE 
FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

TO REPORT PREVIOUS FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
FORT WORTH.

LAT...LON 3185 9640 3220 9663 3233 9638 3230 9630
      3226 9628 3225 9624 3220 9620 3221 9615
      3217 9618 3215 9610 3209 9612 3208 9611
      3208 9606 3202 9606

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at May 7, 7:25 PM CDT, 2 hours 25 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 7, 7:25 PM CDT, 2 hours 25 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
725 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SURROUND THE TAF
SITES FROM NEARLY ALL DIRECTIONS. A LARGE COMPLEX OF ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY WEST OF THE TAF SITES BUT IS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY
ADVANCE EAST. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN
NAVARRO..ELLIS AND KAUFMAN COUNTY. WILL START ALL TAF SITES OFF
WITH VCTS AT 00Z...AND WILL TEMPO -TSRA BEGINNING AT 00 OR 01Z.
THINK THIS COMPLEX OUT WEST WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER THIS EVENING
FOR THE AIRPORTS. WILL USE 1 TEMPO GROUP FOR 4 HOURS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS AS ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE DIMINISHED OR MOVED EAST OF THE
TAF SITES AROUND MIDNIGHT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN WEST TEXAS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT
SUGGEST WE WILL SEE A DECENT BREAK OVERNIGHT...WITH THIS COMPLEX
REACHING THE TAF SITES NEAR DAYBREAK. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW. INSTABILITY
WILL BE MUCH WEAKER TOMORROW AND AM ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL JUST ADDRESS THE PRECIP TOMORROW WITH VCSH FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. LATER TAF ISSUANCES MAY NEED TO INCLUDE THE
MENTION OF THUNDER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE REACHED ALL SITES AND EXPECT
NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

85/NH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012/
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCES
INTO AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. CURRENTLY THE FRONT IS
LINED UP FROM FAR WEST TEXAS TO NEAR SAN ANGELO AND STRETCHING
NORTHEAST INTO THE ARKLATEX. A CORRIDOR OF MOSTLY UNCAPPED STRONG
INSTABILITY EXTENDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS
INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. MAIN CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WILL
BE THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED AND
TRANSITIONING INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS. HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ORGANIZE OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO THE
AXIS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE ARKLATEX OVER THE LAST HOUR. IF THIS CONVECTION
CAN CLUSTER IT WILL LIKELY DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES. FOR THIS EVENING...WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST WHERE CONVECTION IS ONGOING. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT
THESE STORMS WILL HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE EAST...SO WILL CARRY HIGH
POPS THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
GIVEN ANY ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF STORMS...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
LIKELY ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION TO ANY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORM MERGERS WITHIN ANY COMPLEX OF STORMS
WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. AT THIS TIME WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH
ESPECIALLY OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH FRONT BEING
PUSHED INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THE UPPER TROF WILL STILL REMAIN WELL TO
THE WEST OF NORTH TEXAS...HOWEVER MODERATE WARM ADVECTION WILL
PERSIST FROM 800-600MB WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF
SHOWERS. INSTABILITY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER TOMORROW BUT
STILL SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY HIGH
POPS THROUGH TUESDAY.

IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL GET A BREAK IN SCATTERED PRECIP ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE UPPER LOW FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD ON THURSDAY.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND
AGAIN MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. BEYOND
FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL AND FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY.

DUNN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  65  75  58  80  57 /  60  50  20  10   5
WACO, TX              69  76  59  80  57 /  80  70  30  10  10
PARIS, TX             64  75  54  76  53 /  40  30  20  10   5
DENTON, TX            62  71  54  79  53 /  40  40  20  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          64  74  55  79  52 /  50  40  20  10   5
DALLAS, TX            66  76  59  80  59 /  60  50  20  10   5
TERRELL, TX           66  75  57  79  55 /  70  50  20  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         68  76  60  78  57 /  80  60  30  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            68  76  60  77  58 /  80  70  40  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     60  70  54  79  54 /  50  50  20  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

85/85

Hazardous weather outlook, May 7, 3:53 PM CDT, 5 hours 57 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
353 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-081215-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
353 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR A BONHAM TO
SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE AND THEN MOVE SOUTH EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS
LINE OF STORMS ALSO HAS A CHANCE OF BECOMING SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE REGION
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE THURSDAY...WITH
CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS
EVENING. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS MOST LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.

CAVANAUGH

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 7, 7:09 PM CDT, 2 hours 41 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
709 PM CDT MON MAY 07 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0706 PM     HAIL             ALMA                    32.28N  96.55W
05/07/2012  E1.75 INCH       ELLIS              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AT THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 287 AND I-45

Special weather statement, May 7, 7:18 PM CDT, 2 hours 32 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
718 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

TXZ132-080045-
SOMERVELL TX-
718 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOMERVELL COUNTY

AT 718 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 18 MILES SOUTH OF GRANBURY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
10 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE GLEN ROSE AND DINOSAUR
VALLEY STATE PARK.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3232 9779 3232 9765 3224 9761 3220 9761
      3220 9765 3209 9786 3222 9794 3224 9794
TIME...MOT...LOC 0018Z 243DEG 9KT 3219 9783

CAVANAUGH

Special weather statement, May 7, 7:54 PM CDT, 1 hour 56 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
754 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

TXZ161-080130-
LIMESTONE TX-
754 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN LIMESTONE COUNTY

AT 754 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF BELLMEAD...MOVING EAST AT
10 MPH.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3177 9680 3167 9673 3162 9687 3171 9692
TIME...MOT...LOC 0054Z 269DEG 9KT 3168 9686

Local storm report, May 7, 8:05 PM CDT, 1 hour 45 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
805 PM CDT MON MAY 07 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0758 PM     HAIL             4 S CANEY CITY          32.15N  96.04W
05/07/2012  E0.75 INCH       HENDERSON          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PENNY HAIL IN MALAKOFF

Special weather statement, May 7, 8:06 PM CDT, 1 hour 44 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
806 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

TXZ118-080130-
TARRANT TX-
806 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN TARRANT COUNTY

AT 807 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF MANSFIELD...MOVING EAST AT
10 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE KENNEDALE AND MANSFIELD.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3267 9704 3255 9704 3255 9724 3266 9724
TIME...MOT...LOC 0107Z 292DEG 10KT 3259 9714

Special weather statement, May 7, 8:39 PM CDT, 1 hour 11 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
839 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

TXZ174-080215-
MILAM TX-
839 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  MILAM COUNTY

AT 838 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SWATH OF STRONG WINDS BEHIND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH
WESTERN MILAM COUNTY.  NORTHWEST WINDS OF 50 TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ROCKDALE AND THORNDALE.

BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3072 9727 3075 9732 3076 9732 3077 9731
      3089 9726 3095 9714 3067 9673 3046 9714
      3046 9716
TIME...MOT...LOC 0138Z 291DEG 18KT 3067 9708

CAVANAUGH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Fort Worth, TX issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 7, 7:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FWD	Hopkins	59 min
May 7, 7:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FWD	Coryell	46 min
May 7, 7:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FWD	Hill, Navarro	61 min
May 7, 7:18 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	FWD	Somervell	27 min
May 7, 7:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FWD	McLennan	64 min
May 7, 7:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FWD	Bosque, Hill, Johnson, Somervell	43 min
May 7, 7:44 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	FWD	Erath, Somervell	3 hr
May 7, 7:54 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	FWD	Limestone	36 min
May 7, 7:57 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	FWD	Van Zandt	3 hr
May 7, 8:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FWD	Henderson	60 min
May 7, 8:06 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	FWD	Tarrant	24 min
May 7, 8:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FWD	Hill, Limestone, Navarro	60 min
May 7, 8:20 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	FWD	McLennan	3 hr
May 7, 8:35 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	FWD	Hill, Navarro	3 hr
May 7, 8:39 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	FWD	Milam	36 min
May 7, 8:42 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FWD	Hill, Navarro	51 min
May 7, 9:07 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	FWD	Hill, Navarro	113 min
May 7, 9:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FWD	Freestone	35 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Texas, 2012 Every flash flood warning in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.