Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Fort Worth, TX

295 
WGUS74 KFWD 080343
FFSFWD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1043 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

TXC217-349-080400-
/O.CON.KFWD.FF.W.0017.000000T0000Z-120508T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HILL TX-NAVARRO TX-
1043 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
WESTERN NAVARRO AND EASTERN HILL COUNTIES...

AT 1041 PM CDT...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS 
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HILL AND WESTERN NAVARRO COUNTIES. RAINFALL 
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS HAVE FALLEN. 
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS AREA WILL DIMINISH...BUT THE RAINFALL RUNOFF 
WILL CONTINUE...RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED INCLUDE HILLSBORO...
CARL'S CORNER...BYNUM...BLOOMING GROVE AND BARRY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODS. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT AT NIGHT TO TELL HOW
MUCH WATER IS ON THE ROADS OR IF THE ROAD HAS BEEN DAMAGED OR WASHED
AWAY. TAKE A DIFFERENT ROUTE TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION OR WAIT UNTIL
WATER RECEDES.

&&

LAT...LON 3187 9636 3180 9663 3182 9672 3175 9685
      3172 9694 3186 9704 3183 9711 3205 9723
      3212 9699 3206 9695 3206 9693 3221 9661

$$


14

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
725 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SURROUND THE TAF
SITES FROM NEARLY ALL DIRECTIONS. A LARGE COMPLEX OF ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY WEST OF THE TAF SITES BUT IS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY
ADVANCE EAST. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN
NAVARRO..ELLIS AND KAUFMAN COUNTY. WILL START ALL TAF SITES OFF
WITH VCTS AT 00Z...AND WILL TEMPO -TSRA BEGINNING AT 00 OR 01Z.
THINK THIS COMPLEX OUT WEST WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER THIS EVENING
FOR THE AIRPORTS. WILL USE 1 TEMPO GROUP FOR 4 HOURS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS AS ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE DIMINISHED OR MOVED EAST OF THE
TAF SITES AROUND MIDNIGHT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN WEST TEXAS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT
SUGGEST WE WILL SEE A DECENT BREAK OVERNIGHT...WITH THIS COMPLEX
REACHING THE TAF SITES NEAR DAYBREAK. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW. INSTABILITY
WILL BE MUCH WEAKER TOMORROW AND AM ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL JUST ADDRESS THE PRECIP TOMORROW WITH VCSH FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. LATER TAF ISSUANCES MAY NEED TO INCLUDE THE
MENTION OF THUNDER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE REACHED ALL SITES AND EXPECT
NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

85/NH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012/
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCES
INTO AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. CURRENTLY THE FRONT IS
LINED UP FROM FAR WEST TEXAS TO NEAR SAN ANGELO AND STRETCHING
NORTHEAST INTO THE ARKLATEX. A CORRIDOR OF MOSTLY UNCAPPED STRONG
INSTABILITY EXTENDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS
INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. MAIN CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WILL
BE THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED AND
TRANSITIONING INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS. HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ORGANIZE OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO THE
AXIS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE ARKLATEX OVER THE LAST HOUR. IF THIS CONVECTION
CAN CLUSTER IT WILL LIKELY DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES. FOR THIS EVENING...WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST WHERE CONVECTION IS ONGOING. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT
THESE STORMS WILL HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE EAST...SO WILL CARRY HIGH
POPS THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
GIVEN ANY ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF STORMS...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
LIKELY ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION TO ANY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORM MERGERS WITHIN ANY COMPLEX OF STORMS
WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. AT THIS TIME WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH
ESPECIALLY OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH FRONT BEING
PUSHED INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THE UPPER TROF WILL STILL REMAIN WELL TO
THE WEST OF NORTH TEXAS...HOWEVER MODERATE WARM ADVECTION WILL
PERSIST FROM 800-600MB WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF
SHOWERS. INSTABILITY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER TOMORROW BUT
STILL SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY HIGH
POPS THROUGH TUESDAY.

IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL GET A BREAK IN SCATTERED PRECIP ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE UPPER LOW FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD ON THURSDAY.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND
AGAIN MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. BEYOND
FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL AND FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY.

DUNN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  65  75  58  80  57 /  60  50  20  10   5
WACO, TX              69  76  59  80  57 /  80  70  30  10  10
PARIS, TX             64  75  54  76  53 /  40  30  20  10   5
DENTON, TX            62  71  54  79  53 /  40  40  20  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          64  74  55  79  52 /  50  40  20  10   5
DALLAS, TX            66  76  59  80  59 /  60  50  20  10   5
TERRELL, TX           66  75  57  79  55 /  70  50  20  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         68  76  60  78  57 /  80  60  30  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            68  76  60  77  58 /  80  70  40  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     60  70  54  79  54 /  50  50  20  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

85/85

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
353 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-081215-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
353 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR A BONHAM TO
SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE AND THEN MOVE SOUTH EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS
LINE OF STORMS ALSO HAS A CHANCE OF BECOMING SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE REGION
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE THURSDAY...WITH
CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS
EVENING. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS MOST LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.

CAVANAUGH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
709 PM CDT MON MAY 07 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0706 PM     HAIL             ALMA                    32.28N  96.55W
05/07/2012  E1.75 INCH       ELLIS              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AT THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 287 AND I-45

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
718 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

TXZ132-080045-
SOMERVELL TX-
718 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOMERVELL COUNTY

AT 718 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 18 MILES SOUTH OF GRANBURY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
10 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE GLEN ROSE AND DINOSAUR
VALLEY STATE PARK.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3232 9779 3232 9765 3224 9761 3220 9761
      3220 9765 3209 9786 3222 9794 3224 9794
TIME...MOT...LOC 0018Z 243DEG 9KT 3219 9783

CAVANAUGH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
754 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

TXZ161-080130-
LIMESTONE TX-
754 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN LIMESTONE COUNTY

AT 754 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF BELLMEAD...MOVING EAST AT
10 MPH.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3177 9680 3167 9673 3162 9687 3171 9692
TIME...MOT...LOC 0054Z 269DEG 9KT 3168 9686

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
805 PM CDT MON MAY 07 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0758 PM     HAIL             4 S CANEY CITY          32.15N  96.04W
05/07/2012  E0.75 INCH       HENDERSON          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PENNY HAIL IN MALAKOFF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
806 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

TXZ118-080130-
TARRANT TX-
806 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN TARRANT COUNTY

AT 807 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF MANSFIELD...MOVING EAST AT
10 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE KENNEDALE AND MANSFIELD.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3267 9704 3255 9704 3255 9724 3266 9724
TIME...MOT...LOC 0107Z 292DEG 10KT 3259 9714

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
839 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

TXZ174-080215-
MILAM TX-
839 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  MILAM COUNTY

AT 838 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SWATH OF STRONG WINDS BEHIND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH
WESTERN MILAM COUNTY.  NORTHWEST WINDS OF 50 TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ROCKDALE AND THORNDALE.

BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3072 9727 3075 9732 3076 9732 3077 9731
      3089 9726 3095 9714 3067 9673 3046 9714
      3046 9716
TIME...MOT...LOC 0138Z 291DEG 18KT 3067 9708

CAVANAUGH