Severe Thunderstorm Warning 136, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

812 
WWUS53 KFSD 102259
SVSFSD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
559 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

IAC041-059-102315-
/O.CON.KFSD.SV.W.0136.000000T0000Z-120610T2315Z/
DICKINSON IA-CLAY IA-
559 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
CLAY AND EASTERN DICKINSON COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 559 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
FOSTORIA...OR NEAR SPENCER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MILFORD...ARNOLDS PARK...WEST OKOBOJI AND TERRIL AROUND 610 PM
  CDT...
  OKOBOJI...SPIRIT LAKE...ORLEANS AND SUPERIOR AROUND 615 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4309 9508 4320 9528 4350 9512 4350 9497
      4347 9490 4324 9490
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 207DEG 37KT 4322 9515
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

HANKO

442 
WWUS53 KFSD 102306
SVSFSD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
606 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

IAC041-059-102316-
/O.EXP.KFSD.SV.W.0136.000000T0000Z-120610T2315Z/
DICKINSON IA-CLAY IA-
606 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CLAY AND EASTERN
DICKINSON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 615 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY...HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4309 9508 4320 9528 4350 9512 4350 9497
      4347 9490 4324 9490
TIME...MOT...LOC 2306Z 207DEG 37KT 4328 9510

$$

HANKO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
315 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT/
ELEVATED CONVECTION BREAKING OUT THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY AT 19Z
LIKELY A SIGN OF LIFT APPROACHING FROM WESTERN PLAINS
TROUGHING...WHILE THE DEGREE OF CAPPED INSTABILITY SHOWN BY THE
NARROW LINE OF FRONTAL RETURNS ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER OF SD.
EXPECT THAT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON EAST
OF INTERSTATE 29 WHICH HAS BEEN FEATURE OF SEVERAL HIGH RES MODEL
RUNS. SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS THE MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE IN ADVANCE
OF TROUGH WITH A LARGE PORTION OF THE 35-45 KNOTS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. WITH MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY PERHAPS 1500-2000 J/KG AT
MOST...THIS SUGGESTS AN OVERALL LOWER END THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS...HAIL HALF DOLLAR TO GOLF BALL...WITH WINDS A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THREAT TO AROUND 65 MPH. BOUNDARY ACCELERATES EASTWARD EARLY
EVENING...AND LOOKS LIKE NARROW WINDOW FOR SEVERE WILL CLOSE BY 01Z
IN OUR CWA.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND BOUNDARY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS
DROPPING OFF QUICKLY AND SETTING UP A RETURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THIS WILL ALSO CHANGE QUICKLY WITH SECONDARY FRONT AS A
REFLECTION OF UPPER TROUGH SWEEPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. /CHAPMAN

DRY AND COOLER REGIME WILL RULE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOME CLOUDS CAN
BE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH MONDAY AS COOL TROUGH PASSES BY TO THE
NORTH...BUT IT SHOULD BE NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY. TUESDAY SHOULD
BE FAIRLY SUNNY EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS STARTING UP WEST OR
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
BALLPARK.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. MODEL CONSISTENCY
ON SHORT WAVE IS FAIRLY HIGH AND SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY FAVORABLE
THERMAL AND MOISTURE FIELDS FOR GARDEN VARIETY CONVECTION. SOME
WARMING IS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE ACTIVITY ENDING AS THIS WAVE MOVES OUT.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE AND WARMER WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN LOOKS LIKE CONTINUED WARM...MORE
HUMID...AND A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF THREAT
UNCERTAIN WITH GFS AND EC VASTLY DIFFERENT FOR THE WEEKEND...THE EC
BEING MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND DRYING THE AIR OUT BEHIND PASSING
TROUGH...THE GFS HINTING AT A RATHER SOGGY PERIOD. WILL KEEP POPS AT
A MODEST CHANCE LEVEL UNTIL THE PATTERN BECOMES BETTER RESOLVED.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
COLD FRONT ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER WILL FOCUS THE
SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR AND POST FRONTAL DURING THE 19Z-22Z
TIMEFRAME...MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 29...WITH MOST ISOLATED
ACTIVITY TO THE WEST.  STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25
MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE REPLACED BY A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT SHOULD DECOUPLING QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KHON AT THE VERY
START OF THE VALID TAF...DURING THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON AROUND KFSD...
AND LEAST LIKELY AROUND KSUX OUTSIDE ANY POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS
LATE AFTERNOON /CHAPMAN

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1139 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-111200-
AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-
1139 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ANY STORMS BETWEEN THE
JAMES VALLEY AND INTERSTATE 29 ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

HOWEVER...BETWEEN 2PM AND 4PM...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY IN AREAS JUST EAST OF INTERSTATE 29
IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...AS WELL AS AREAS OF
EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL UP TO GOLF
BALL SIZE AND WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 65 MPH IN AREAS EAST OF A
LINE FROM MARSHALL TO ROCK RAPIDS TO EMERSON...AND ESPECIALLY
TOWARD THE HIGHWAY 59 AND 71 CORRIDORS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND 7 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 2 PM AND 7 PM CDT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA AND EXTREME NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SIOUXFALLS. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.