Alert archive / Arizona / Special Weather Statements in 2012

Special Weather Statement, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

July 22, 2012

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this special weather statement at Jul 22, 2012, 6:49 PM MST. It was in force for 26 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 22, 2012, 6:49 PM MST (01:49 UTC)
Expired
Jul 22, 2012, 7:15 PM MST
In force
26 min
Issued by
NWS Flagstaff, AZ

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 113 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 00:00Z, 1.8 hours before the alert went out and 198 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Flgstf/Belemont, AZ at 00:00Z on 2012-07-23Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 219 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Flgstf/Belemont, AZ at 00:00Z on 2012-07-23The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 3 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
219 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-46 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2014 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
7 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
3 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
29 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 22, 3:30 PM MST, 3 hours 19 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 22, 3:30 PM MST, 3 hours 19 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 PM MST SUN JUL 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED OVER
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. STORMS WERE A LITTLE SLOWER TO START TODAY
AND THE COVERAGE WAS LESS THAN YESTERDAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS
APPARENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PUSHING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL ACT TO ALLOW STORMS TO
LAST LONGER THIS EVENING THAN LAST NIGHT.

MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO ARIZONA THROUGH MID WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAY DECREASE SOME LATTER IN THE WEEK ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF AZ...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER
02Z...MOSTLY ENDING BY MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SLIGHT
DRYING TREND WITH A DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC.........MAS
AVIATION.......MCCOLLUM
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 22, 5:00 AM MST, 13 hours 49 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
500 AM MST SUN JUL 22 2012

AZZ004>018-037>040-230700-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
500 AM MST SUN JUL 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING A
CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY. SOME
OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

EXPECT AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN A SLIGHT DECREASE IN ACTIVITY
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 22, 3:03 PM MST, 3 hours 46 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
303 PM MST SUN JUL 22 2012

AZZ018-222230-
GILA AZ-
303 PM MST SUN JUL 22 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN GILA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA

UNTIL 330 PM MST

AT 300 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR CONTINUED TO DETECT
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF PAYSON NEAR RYE...GISELA...AND JAKES
CORNER...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH AND RAINFALL RATES APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR. IN
PARTICULAR...TONTO CREEK IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE SOME RISES...AND
ANY LOW WATER CROSSINGS ARE TO BE AVOIDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SOME UNSECURED OBJECTS COULD BE BLOWN AROUND IN THE GUSTY WINDS.
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY PONDING ON SOME ROADS AND
MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. IN HEAVY RAINFALL...SLOW DOWN
TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HYDROPLANING...AND LEAVE A SAFE DISTANCE
BETWEEN YOURSELF AND OTHER VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3405 11146 3418 11147 3427 11141 3413 11120
      3392 11128
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 107DEG 9KT 3411 11137

KD
Special weather statement, Jul 22, 4:58 PM MST, 1 hour 51 minutes before
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Local storm report, Jul 22, 5:07 PM MST, 1 hour 42 minutes before
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Local storm report, Jul 22, 5:09 PM MST, 1 hour 40 minutes before
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Local storm report, Jul 22, 6:47 PM MST, 2 minutes before
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Special weather statement, Jul 22, 6:49 PM MST, 0 minutes before
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The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 22, 5:17 PM MSTAreal Flood AdvisoryFGZYavapai88 min
Jul 22, 7:21 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZGila, Navajo24 min
Jul 23, 1:24 PM MSTAreal Flood AdvisoryFGZYavapai96 min
Jul 23, 3:32 PM MSTAreal Flood AdvisoryFGZYavapai2 hr
Jul 23, 4:00 PM MSTAreal Flood AdvisoryFGZCoconino, Yavapai88 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Arizona, 2012Every special weather statement in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.