Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

816 
WWUS55 KFGZ 012114
SVSFGZ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
214 PM MST SAT SEP 1 2012

AZC005-012124-
/O.CAN.KFGZ.SV.W.0045.000000T0000Z-120901T2130Z/
COCONINO AZ-
214 PM MST SAT SEP 1 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING NEAR LEUPP HAS 
WEAKENED. HOWEVER...THE STORM IS STILL PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND 
HEAVY RAIN JUST NORTHEAST OF LEUPP.

LAT...LON 3539 11102 3540 11080 3522 11086 3520 11108
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 205DEG 17KT 3535 11091

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
920 AM MST SAT SEP 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY. THE MOST POTENT STORMS
TODAY ARE EXPECTED WEST OF A LINE FROM PAGE TO PAYSON AND MAY
PRODUCE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED STARTING
WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A PLUME OF MOIST/HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER/ AIR REMAINS
ORIENTED THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHERN AZ THIS MORNING...ESTIMATED UP TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES IN SOUTHWEST YAVAPAI COUNTY WITH LOWER VALUES
RANGING DOWN TO AROUND 0.75 INCHES IN NORTHEAST AZ. A PACIFIC JET
STREAK ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH PUSHING INLAND WAS
PRODUCING STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN NORTHWEST AZ. WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MUCH OF YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTY TODAY. SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS...HAIL UP
TO AROUND 1 INCH DIAMETER...AND HEAVY RAIN. FASTER THAN NORMAL STORM
MOTION SHOULD MITIGATE THE RAIN ACCUMULATION AT MOST
LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH ANY AREAS THAT SEE RECURRENT THUNDERSTORM
FORMATION COULD STILL SEE FLOODING PROBLEMS TODAY. THE CURRENT
FORECAST HANDLES THE SITUATION WELL AND NO SHORT TERM UPDATES ARE
PLANNED TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION/300 AM MST/...SATELLITE PW THIS MORNING SHOWS THE
MOISTURE AXIS ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH VALUE
NEARING 1.5 INCHES APPROACHING YAVAPAI COUNTY. THE WIND PATTERN OVER
NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND SPREAD THIS
HIGH PW AIR NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COAST TODAY WILL PRODUCE DECENT WIND SHEAR ALOFT ACROSS
COCONINO AND NORTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTIES. STORMS IN THIS AREA COULD
PRODUCE HAIL...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WIND SPEEDS ALOFT OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA
WILL DECREASE BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. WE SHOULD CONTINUE IN A MID
GRADE MONSOON PATTERN....WITH MOST STORM ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

STARTING WEDNESDAY...PROGS HAVE A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS DRIER AIR PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WERE MASSAGED TO SHOW HIGHEST VALUES IN THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS AND LITTLE THEN NO ACTIVITY ALONG THE UTAH BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY 18Z-20Z. STORM MOTION WILL BE TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 20 KT. STORMS NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM KPAN-KFLG-KPGA WILL HAVE AN ENHANCED TENDENCY TO PRODUCE HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS. ANY STORM COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED IFR VISIBILITY
IN HEAVY RAIN. STORM COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH AFTER 03-04Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC.........DJO/41
AVIATION.......AT

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
357 AM MST SAT SEP 1 2012

AZZ004>018-037>040-021000-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
357 AM MST SAT SEP 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...NAVAJO...COCONINO....YAVAPAI...AND
NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES IN ARIZONA

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS COCONINO AND NORTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTY...WHERE STORMS
MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. STORM MOTION WILL
GENERALLY BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

41