Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

555 
WWUS55 KFGZ 162000
SVSFGZ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
100 PM MST THU AUG 16 2012

AZC005-162010-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.SV.W.0032.000000T0000Z-120816T2000Z/
COCONINO AZ-
100 PM MST THU AUG 16 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED.
HOWEVER THE STORM IS STILL PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

LAT...LON 3530 11161 3521 11149 3514 11164 3520 11172
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 216DEG 10KT 3526 11157

$$

DB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
915 AM MST THU AUG 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
MOST PLENTIFUL ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM PRODUCING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DAILY. IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE...DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER PLOTS AND THE
MORNING SOUNDING FROM FLAGSTAFF SHOW THAT MOISTURE HAS SEEPED
NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES
REACHING UP TO AROUND 1 INCH AS FAR NORTHEAST AS THE LITTLE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY. DRY AIR WITH PW LESS THAN 0.7 INCH REMAINS IN THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE AND SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THERE SLIGHT. STILL...THE RICHEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE RIM AND SHOULD FAVOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHIFTING
FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON TO YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN
GILA COUNTY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST PACKAGE
FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING FOR HIGHER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE KAIBAB PLATEAU THROUGH THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS
NORTHEASTWARD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION/330 AM MST/...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STRETCHED
FROM NEVADA THROUGH NE ARIZONA AND INTO NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING.
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS...ACROSS YAVAPAI AND GILA COUNTIES AND
THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA...DEEP MOISTURE RESIDES WITH DEWPOINTS FROM
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. MUCH DRIER AIR LINGERS NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...EVEN A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS AFFECTING YAVAPAI COUNTY. LATER TODAY...EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...SOME OF THESE STORMS SHOULD DRIFT TOWARD THE WEST INTO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF GILA AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES WHERE HIGHER
INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO A FEW STRONG STORMS. NORTH OF THE RIM...VERY
LITTLE STORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TODAY. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED OVERALL IN THIS GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BECOME CENTERED OVER NEVADA AND WRN UTAH
FRI-SUN...RESULTING IN A MORE NORTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW OVER THE
STATE. THIS FAVORS STORMS MOVING OFF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MTNS
INTO YAVAPAI AND GILA COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING
HOURS...SOME WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. BY NEXT WEEK...HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST INTO AZ WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY...MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...THROUGH 03Z...SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA
ARE EXPECTED WEST AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KPGA-KINW-KSJN WITH
ISOLATED COVERAGE EAST OF THIS LINE. SOME STORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS...AND OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 40KT. AFT
03Z STORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE BUT NOT END...WITH SCATTERED -SHRA
AND ISOLATED -TSRA...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC.........DJO
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
917 AM MST THU AUG 16 2012

AZZ004>018-037>040-170400-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
917 AM MST THU AUG 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ARIZONA...NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHEAST.
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...STORMS WILL TEND TO DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF YAVAPAI AND GILA COUNTIES. SOME STORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG TODAY...PRODUCING HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON STORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.