Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

439 
WWUS55 KFGZ 152115
SVSFGZ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
215 PM MST WED AUG 15 2012

AZC005-007-152124-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.SV.W.0027.000000T0000Z-120815T2115Z/
GILA AZ-COCONINO AZ-
215 PM MST WED AUG 15 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL COCONINO
AND NORTHWESTERN GILA COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 215 PM MST...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM JUST EAST OF PINE AND NORTH OF PAYSON WHICH 
PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED. THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 
WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3428 11152 3453 11150 3451 11126 3429 11121
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 337DEG 5KT 3433 11134

$$

KD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1012 AM MST WED AUG 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS
WEEK. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA...WHILE TYPICAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DEW POINTS WERE ADJUSTED A FEW DEGREES UPWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY EARLIER THIS MORNING AS A SURGE OF
MOISTURE HAS MADE ITS WAY NORTHWARD. THIS AREA MAY SEE QUITE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON HOW EXTENSIVE AND
PROLONGED MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER BECOMES. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...WE WILL LEAVE POPS ALONE FOR NOW. NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT FROM ABOUT FLAGSTAFF EAST WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
NORTH OF THE RIM.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /313 AM MST/...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ HAS PUSHED
MOIST OUTFLOW NORTHWARD INTO YAVAPAI AND GILA COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING. ALTHOUGH MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED....AN ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
POOLING SOUTH OF THE RIM. THE POSITION OF THE HIGH CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN AZ HAS BROUGHT A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW TO
AREAS FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTH TO THE UT BORDER. VERY LITTLE
CONVECTION OCCURRED IN THESE AREAS TUESDAY AND SFC DEW POINTS DIPPED
INTO THE UPPER 30S. THIS DRIER AIRMASS WILL LIMIT STORM COVERAGE FOR
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. MOISTURE
LEVELS LOOK TO ACTUALLY INCREASE SOUTH OF THE RIM OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BECOMING A GREATER THREAT.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BUT WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON
FLUCTUATIONS IN DAILY CLOUD COVER.

THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER SHIFTS LITTLE FROM SOUTHWEST AZ INTO NORTHWEST AZ/SOUTHERN NV.
THIS MAY ALLOW A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD. BY EARLY TO
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK...THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS EAST OF AZ WITH A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY AROUND 19Z FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM SOUTHWARD. STORMS HAVE
A FAIRLY LOW PROBABILITY OF AFFECTING ANY GIVEN TERMINAL...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KPRC WHERE MORE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AND FLOW
ALOFT IS MORE FAVORABLE. ASIDE FROM THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......AT

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
319 AM MST WED AUG 15 2012

AZZ004>018-037>040-160700-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
319 AM MST WED AUG 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ARIZONA...NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY PRIMARILY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN
STORM THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HEAVY
RAIN BECOMING A GREATER THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.