Alert archive / Arizona / Red Flag Warnings in 2012

Red Flag Warning 6, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

May 16, 2012Coconino County, Yavapai County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this red flag warning at May 16, 2012, 3:16 PM MST for Coconino County, Yavapai County, Arizona. It took effect at May 17, 2012, 12:00 PM MST. It was in force for 8 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
May 16, 2012, 3:16 PM MST (22:16 UTC)
In effect from
May 17, 2012, 12:00 PM MST
Expired
May 17, 2012, 8:00 PM MST
In force
8 hr
Issued by
NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Counties Coconino County, AZ, Yavapai County, AZ

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 113 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 10.3 hours before the alert went out and 33 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Flgstf/Belemont, AZ at 12:00Z on 2012-05-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Flgstf/Belemont, AZ at 12:00Z on 2012-05-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 154 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2883 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
27 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
154 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
277 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

642 
WWUS85 KFGZ 162216
RFWFGZ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
316 PM MST WED MAY 16 2012

AZZ106-107-115-170615-
/O.UPG.KFGZ.FW.A.0006.120518T1800Z-120519T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KFGZ.FW.W.0007.120518T1800Z-120519T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KFGZ.FW.W.0006.120517T1900Z-120518T0300Z/
GRAND CANYON COUNTRY (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 106)-
COCONINO PLATEAU (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 107)-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 115)-
316 PM MST WED MAY 16 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM MST THURSDAY FOR
STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST FRIDAY FOR
STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM MST THURSDAY. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS
ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST FRIDAY. THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* AFFECTED AREA...NORTHWESTERN COCONINO COUNTY FIRE ZONES IN ARIZONA.

* 20 FOOT WIND...ON THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST 18-22 MPH WITH GUSTS 35-40 MPH.
  ON FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 35-45 MPH.

* MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY...ON THURSDAY...7-12 PERCENT. ON
  FRIDAY...9-14 PERCENT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG
WARNINGS.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING OR ARE IMMINENT. A COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CREATE EXTREME FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL.

PLEASE NOTIFY FIELD CREWS OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

AZZ104-170615-
/O.NEW.KFGZ.FW.W.0006.120517T1900Z-120518T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KFGZ.FW.W.0007.120518T1800Z-120519T0300Z/
KAIBAB PLATEAU (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 104)-
316 PM MST WED MAY 16 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM MST THURSDAY FOR
STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST FRIDAY FOR
STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM MST THURSDAY. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS
ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST FRIDAY.

* AFFECTED AREA...KAIBAB PLATEAU.

* 20 FOOT WIND...ON THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST 18-22 MPH WITH GUSTS 35-40 MPH.
  ON FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 35-45 MPH.

* MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY...ON THURSDAY...7-12 PERCENT. ON
  FRIDAY...9-14 PERCENT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING OR ARE IMMINENT. A COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CREATE EXTREME FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL.

PLEASE NOTIFY FIELD CREWS OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

AZZ108>114-116>118-139-140-170615-
/O.UPG.KFGZ.FW.A.0006.120518T1800Z-120519T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KFGZ.FW.W.0007.120518T1800Z-120519T0300Z/
YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 108)-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD (FIRE WEATHER ZONE
109)-CHINLE VALLEY (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 110)-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 111)-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY (FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 112)-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY (FIRE WEATHER ZONE
113)-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY (FIRE WEATHER ZONE
114)-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 116)-
WHITE MOUNTAINS (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 117)-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 118)-
BLACK MESA AREA (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 139)-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264 (FIRE WEATHER ZONE
140)-
316 PM MST WED MAY 16 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST FRIDAY FOR
STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST FRIDAY. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS
NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* AFFECTED AREA...CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER
  ZONES.

* 20 FOOT WIND...SOUTHWEST 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 35-45 MPH.

* MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY...9-14 PERCENT.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG
WARNINGS.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING OR ARE IMMINENT. A COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CREATE EXTREME FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL.

PLEASE NOTIFY FIELD CREWS OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

AZZ105-138-170615-
/O.NEW.KFGZ.FW.W.0007.120518T1800Z-120519T0300Z/
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 105)-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 138)-
316 PM MST WED MAY 16 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST FRIDAY FOR
STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST FRIDAY.

* 20 FOOT WIND...SOUTHWEST 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 35-45 MPH.

* MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY...9-14 PERCENT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING OR ARE IMMINENT. A COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CREATE EXTREME FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL.

PLEASE NOTIFY FIELD CREWS OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$
6 follow-up statements
565 
WWUS85 KFGZ 162221
RFWFGZ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
321 PM MST WED MAY 16 2012

AZZ104-106-107-115-170630-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FW.W.0006.120517T1900Z-120518T0300Z/
/O.CON.KFGZ.FW.W.0007.120518T1800Z-120519T0300Z/
KAIBAB PLATEAU (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 104)-
GRAND CANYON COUNTRY (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 106)-
COCONINO PLATEAU (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 107)-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 115)-
321 PM MST WED MAY 16 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM MST
THURSDAY FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST
FRIDAY FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

* AFFECTED AREA...NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA FIRE ZONES.

* 20 FOOT WIND...ON THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST 18-22 MPH WITH GUSTS 35-
   40 MPH. ON FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 35-45 MPH. 

* MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY...ON THURSDAY...7-12 PERCENT. ON 
  FRIDAY...9-14 PERCENT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG
WARNINGS.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING OR ARE IMMINENT. A COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CREATE EXTREME FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL.

PLEASE NOTIFY FIELD CREWS OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

AZZ105-108>114-116>118-138>140-170630-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FW.W.0007.120518T1800Z-120519T0300Z/
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 105)-
YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 108)-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD (FIRE WEATHER ZONE
109)-CHINLE VALLEY (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 110)-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 111)-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY (FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 112)-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY (FIRE WEATHER ZONE
113)-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY (FIRE WEATHER ZONE
114)-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 116)-
WHITE MOUNTAINS (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 117)-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 118)-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 138)-
BLACK MESA AREA (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 139)-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264 (FIRE WEATHER ZONE
140)-
321 PM MST WED MAY 16 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST
FRIDAY FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

* AFFECTED AREA...CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA FIRE ZONES.

* 20 FOOT WIND...SOUTHWEST 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 35-45 MPH.

* MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY...9-14 PERCENT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG
WARNINGS.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING OR ARE IMMINENT. A COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CREATE EXTREME FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL.

PLEASE NOTIFY FIELD CREWS OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$
975 
WWUS85 KFGZ 170231
RFWFGZ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
731 PM MST WED MAY 16 2012

AZZ104-106-107-115-171145-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FW.W.0006.120517T1900Z-120518T0300Z/
/O.CON.KFGZ.FW.W.0007.120518T1800Z-120519T0300Z/
KAIBAB PLATEAU (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 104)-
GRAND CANYON COUNTRY (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 106)-
COCONINO PLATEAU (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 107)-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 115)-
731 PM MST WED MAY 16 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM MST
THURSDAY FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST
FRIDAY FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

* AFFECTED AREA...COCONINO COUNTY FROM AROUND THE FLAGSTAFF AREA
  NORTHWESTWARD.

* 20 FOOT WIND...ON THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST 18-22 MPH WITH GUSTS 35-
   40 MPH. ON FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 35-45 MPH. 

* MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY...ON THURSDAY...7-12 PERCENT. ON 
  FRIDAY...9-14 PERCENT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG
WARNINGS.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING OR ARE IMMINENT. A COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CREATE EXTREME FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL.

PLEASE NOTIFY FIELD CREWS OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

AZZ105-108>114-116>118-138>140-171145-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FW.W.0007.120518T1800Z-120519T0300Z/
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 105)-
YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 108)-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD (FIRE WEATHER ZONE
109)-CHINLE VALLEY (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 110)-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 111)-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY (FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 112)-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY (FIRE WEATHER ZONE
113)-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY (FIRE WEATHER ZONE
114)-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 116)-
WHITE MOUNTAINS (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 117)-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 118)-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 138)-
BLACK MESA AREA (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 139)-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264 (FIRE WEATHER ZONE
140)-
731 PM MST WED MAY 16 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST
FRIDAY FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

* AFFECTED AREA...ALL AREAS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA EXCEPT FOR THE
  LOWER ELEVATIONS OF YAVAPAI COUNTY. 

* 20 FOOT WIND...SOUTHWEST 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 35-45 MPH.

* MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY...9-14 PERCENT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG
WARNINGS.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING OR ARE IMMINENT. A COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CREATE EXTREME FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL.

PLEASE NOTIFY FIELD CREWS OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$
298 
WWUS85 KFGZ 171032
RFWFGZ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
332 AM MST THU MAY 17 2012

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY IN NORTHERN ARIZONA...

.FOR TODAY -

TODAYS RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED SLIGHTLY. IT NOW COVERS
AREAS IN NORTHERN ARIZONA WEST OF A LINE FROM PAGE TO FLAGSTAFF TO PRESCOTT.
EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH TO DEVELOP THIS 
AFTERNOON WITH HUMIDITIES NEAR 7 PERCENT. 

ON FRIDAY- 

THE RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA EXCEPT THE YAVAPAI 
COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25 MPH WITH 
GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND HUMIDITIES NEAR 9 PERCENT. 

AZZ108-171845-
/O.EXA.KFGZ.FW.W.0006.120517T1900Z-120518T0300Z/
/O.CON.KFGZ.FW.W.0007.120518T1800Z-120519T0300Z/
YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 108)-
332 AM MST THU MAY 17 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST
FRIDAY FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MST THIS EVENING.

FOR TODAY

* AFFECTED AREA...AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 89.

* 20 FOOT WIND...AFTERNOON WINDS SOUTHWEST 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                 40 MPH.

* MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY...7 PERCENT.

ON FRIDAY 

* AFFECTED AREA...THE ENTIRE YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAIN ZONE. 

* 20 FOOT WIND...BY MID MORNING...SOUTHWEST 15-25 MPH WITH 
                 GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

* MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY...9 PERCENT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING OR ARE IMMINENT. A COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CREATE EXTREME FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL.

PLEASE NOTIFY FIELD CREWS OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

AZZ104-106-107-115-171845-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FW.W.0006.120517T1900Z-120518T0300Z/
/O.CON.KFGZ.FW.W.0007.120518T1800Z-120519T0300Z/
KAIBAB PLATEAU (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 104)-
GRAND CANYON COUNTRY (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 106)-
COCONINO PLATEAU (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 107)-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 115)-
332 AM MST THU MAY 17 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MST
THIS EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST
FRIDAY FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

FOR TODAY

* AFFECTED AREA...AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM JACOB LAKE THROUGH
                  FLAGSTAFF. 

* 20 FOOT WIND...THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTHWEST 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
                 TO 40 MPH.

* MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 7 PERCENT.

ON FRIDAY

* AFFECTED AREA...ALL OF COCONINO COUNTY.

* 20 FOOT WIND...BY MID MORNING...SOUTHWEST 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

* MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 10 PERCENT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING OR ARE IMMINENT. A COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CREATE EXTREME FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL.

PLEASE NOTIFY FIELD CREWS OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

AZZ105-109>114-116>118-138>140-171845-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FW.W.0007.120518T1800Z-120519T0300Z/
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 105)-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD (FIRE WEATHER ZONE
109)-CHINLE VALLEY (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 110)-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 111)-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY (FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 112)-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY (FIRE WEATHER ZONE
113)-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY (FIRE WEATHER ZONE
114)-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 116)-
WHITE MOUNTAINS (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 117)-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 118)-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 138)-
BLACK MESA AREA (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 139)-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264 (FIRE WEATHER ZONE
140)-
332 AM MST THU MAY 17 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST
FRIDAY FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

* AFFECTED AREA...ALL OF NAVAJO...APACHE AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES. 

* 20 FOOT WIND...BY MID MORNING...SOUTHWEST 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

* MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 8 PERCENT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING OR ARE IMMINENT. A COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CREATE EXTREME FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL.

PLEASE NOTIFY FIELD CREWS OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$


41
524 
WWUS85 KFGZ 172145
RFWFGZ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
245 PM MST THU MAY 17 2012

AZZ137-180545-
/O.EXA.KFGZ.FW.W.0007.120518T1800Z-120519T0300Z/
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 137)-
245 PM MST THU MAY 17 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST FRIDAY FOR
STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST FRIDAY.

* AFFECTED AREA...THE YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS.

* 20 FOOT WIND...BY MID MORNING...SOUTHWEST 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 
  TO 35 MPH.

* MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY...7 TO 10 PERCENT.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING OR ARE IMMINENT. A COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CREATE EXTREME FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL.

PLEASE NOTIFY FIELD CREWS OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

AZZ104-106>108-115-180545-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-120518T0300Z/
/O.CON.KFGZ.FW.W.0007.120518T1800Z-120519T0300Z/
KAIBAB PLATEAU (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 104)-
GRAND CANYON COUNTRY (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 106)-
COCONINO PLATEAU (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 107)-
YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 108)-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 115)-
245 PM MST THU MAY 17 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST
FRIDAY FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

FOR THIS EVENING

* AFFECTED AREA...NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER ZONES.

* 20 FOOT WIND...THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTHWEST 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 
  TO 40 MPH. 

* MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY...7 TO 10 PERCENT. 

FOR FRIDAY

* AFFECTED AREA...NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER ZONES. 

* 20 FOOT WIND...BY MID MORNING...SOUTHWEST 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
  OF 35 TO 45 MPH.

* MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY...10 TO 15 PERCENT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING OR ARE IMMINENT. A COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CREATE EXTREME FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL.

PLEASE NOTIFY FIELD CREWS OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

AZZ105-109>114-116>118-138>140-180545-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FW.W.0007.120518T1800Z-120519T0300Z/
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 105)-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD (FIRE WEATHER ZONE
109)-CHINLE VALLEY (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 110)-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 111)-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY (FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 112)-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY (FIRE WEATHER ZONE
113)-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY (FIRE WEATHER ZONE
114)-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 116)-
WHITE MOUNTAINS (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 117)-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 118)-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 138)-
BLACK MESA AREA (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 139)-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264 (FIRE WEATHER ZONE
140)-
245 PM MST THU MAY 17 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST
FRIDAY FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

* AFFECTED AREA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN FIRE WEATHER
  ZONES...INCLUDING THE GLEN CANYON AREA.

* 20 FOOT WIND...BY MID MORNING...SOUTHWEST 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
  OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

* MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY...8 TO 14 PERCENT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING OR ARE IMMINENT. A COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CREATE EXTREME FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL.

PLEASE NOTIFY FIELD CREWS OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$
772 
WWUS85 KFGZ 180257
RFWFGZ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
757 PM MST THU MAY 17 2012

AZZ104-106>108-115-181100-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-120518T0300Z/
/O.CON.KFGZ.FW.W.0007.120518T1800Z-120519T0300Z/
KAIBAB PLATEAU (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 104)-
GRAND CANYON COUNTRY (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 106)-
COCONINO PLATEAU (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 107)-
YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 108)-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 115)-
757 PM MST THU MAY 17 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST
FRIDAY FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

* AFFECTED AREA...NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER ZONES.

* TIMING...FROM LATE MORNING

* 20 FOOT WIND...FROM MID-MORNING FRIDAY UNTIL EARLY
  EVENING...SOUTHWEST 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH.

* MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY...10 TO 15 PERCENT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING OR ARE IMMINENT. A COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CREATE EXTREME FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL.

PLEASE NOTIFY FIELD CREWS OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

AZZ105-109>114-116>118-137>140-181100-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FW.W.0007.120518T1800Z-120519T0300Z/
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 105)-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD (FIRE WEATHER ZONE
109)-CHINLE VALLEY (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 110)-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 111)-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY (FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 112)-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY (FIRE WEATHER ZONE
113)-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY (FIRE WEATHER ZONE
114)-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 116)-
WHITE MOUNTAINS (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 117)-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 118)-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 137)-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 138)-
BLACK MESA AREA (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 139)-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264 (FIRE WEATHER ZONE
140)-
757 PM MST THU MAY 17 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST
FRIDAY FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

* AFFECTED AREA...NORTHEAST ARIZONA...EAST CENTRAL
  ARIZONA...YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS...AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTY.

* 20 FOOT WIND...BY MID MORNING...SOUTHWEST 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 
  OF 40 TO 50 MPH. 

* MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY...7 TO 14 PERCENT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING OR ARE IMMINENT. A COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CREATE EXTREME FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL.

PLEASE NOTIFY FIELD CREWS OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$
015 
WWUS85 KFGZ 180259 CCA
RFWFGZ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
758 PM MST THU MAY 17 2012

AZZ104-106>108-115-181115-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-120518T0300Z/
/O.COR.KFGZ.FW.W.0007.120518T1800Z-120519T0300Z/
KAIBAB PLATEAU (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 104)-
GRAND CANYON COUNTRY (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 106)-
COCONINO PLATEAU (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 107)-
YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 108)-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 115)-
758 PM MST THU MAY 17 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST
FRIDAY FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

* AFFECTED AREA...NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER ZONES.

* 20 FOOT WIND...FROM MID-MORNING FRIDAY UNTIL EARLY
  EVENING...SOUTHWEST 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH.

* MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY...10 TO 15 PERCENT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING OR ARE IMMINENT. A COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CREATE EXTREME FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL.

PLEASE NOTIFY FIELD CREWS OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

AZZ105-109>114-116>118-137>140-181115-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FW.W.0007.120518T1800Z-120519T0300Z/
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 105)-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD (FIRE WEATHER ZONE
109)-CHINLE VALLEY (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 110)-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 111)-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY (FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 112)-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY (FIRE WEATHER ZONE
113)-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY (FIRE WEATHER ZONE
114)-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 116)-
WHITE MOUNTAINS (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 117)-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 118)-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 137)-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 138)-
BLACK MESA AREA (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 139)-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264 (FIRE WEATHER ZONE
140)-
758 PM MST THU MAY 17 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST
FRIDAY FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

* AFFECTED AREA...NORTHEAST ARIZONA...EAST CENTRAL
  ARIZONA...YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS...AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTY.

* 20 FOOT WIND...BY MID MORNING...SOUTHWEST 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 
  OF 40 TO 50 MPH. 

* MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY...7 TO 14 PERCENT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING OR ARE IMMINENT. A COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CREATE EXTREME FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL.

PLEASE NOTIFY FIELD CREWS OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at May 16, 9:17 AM MST, 5 hours 59 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 16, 9:17 AM MST, 5 hours 59 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
917 AM MST WED MAY 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASSING TO THE NORTH OF ARIZONA
WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAKENING AND FAIRLY DRY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN UT THIS MORNING HEADING EASTWARD. FOR
NORTHERN AZ...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AFFECT AREAS FROM THE
MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD TO THE UT BORDER...AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN FAR
NORTHEAST AZ THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT FOR LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND COOLER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES. WILL MAKE A MINOR UPDATE TO FORECAST PRODUCTS THIS
MORNING TO INCREASE WINDS FOR LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY AS
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION/230 AM MST/...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE ARIZONA/UTAH DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...HEADING EASTWARD. FOR TODAY...THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD
EASTWARD WITH THE MAIN IMPACT ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA BEING
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH GUSTING TO OVER 30 MPH AT TIMES. THE
CENTER OF THE LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH COLDER MID-LEVEL AIR AND
THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING
PROGRESSES. THE LOW WILL HEAD EAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA ON THURSDAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE...PERHAPS
A BIT WARMER DURING THE DAY. OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AS ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES ARIZONA LATE IN
THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

FOR FRIDAY...A STRONGER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE MAIN IMPACT FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL BE
STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. LOOKING AT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20
TO 30 MPH WITH GUST WELL INTO THE 40 MPH RANGE...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
MOGOLLON RIM NORTHWARD. ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE COOL MID-LEVEL AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE LATE IN THE WEEKEND BRINGING
LIGHTER WINDS...WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER AREAS OF SMOKE AND SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT
WILL PERSIST NEAR WILDFIRES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FOR TODAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ALONG THE ARIZONA UTAH BORDER. VERY LOW HUMIDITIES WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. THE FASTEST WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALVES OF APACHE AND NAVAJO COUNTIES
AND APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. ON THURSDAY...A STRONGER LOW WILL
APPROACH ARIZONA. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS TO WESTERN COCONINO COUNTY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM HAPPY JACK TO THE KAIBAB PLATEAU...WITH POOR
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ON FRIDAY...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. FOR THE WEEKEND...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FRIDAY 11 AM MST UNTIL 8 PM MST FOR
AZZ106>118-139-140.

&&

PUBLIC.........DJO/MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......RB
FIRE WEATHER...DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
Hazardous weather outlook, May 16, 3:28 AM MST, 11 hours 48 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
328 AM MST WED MAY 16 2012

AZZ004>018-037>040-170715-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
328 AM MST WED MAY 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ARIZONA...NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EXPECT AREAS OF GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF ARIZONA APPROACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ONGOING FIRES IN CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
AREAS OF DENSE SMOKE IN OR NEAR CROWN KING (GLADIATOR FIRE)
AND RYE (SUNFLOWER FIRE) TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY AS DRY CONDITIONS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20
TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 40 MPH RANGE ARE ANTICIPATED.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 16, 3:25 AM MSTFire Weather WatchFGZApache, Coconino, Gila, Navajo, Yavapai12 hr
May 16, 3:16 PM MSTRed Flag WarningFGZApache, Coconino, Gila, Navajo, Yavapai52 hr

Nearby

Red Flag Warnings in Arizona, 2012Every red flag warning in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.