Alert archive / North Dakota / Special Weather Statements in 2012

Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Forks, ND

July 22, 2012Ransom County, North Dakota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this special weather statement at Jul 22, 2012, 5:37 PM CDT for Ransom County, North Dakota. It was in force for 38 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 22, 2012, 5:37 PM CDT (22:37 UTC)
Expired: Jul 22, 2012, 6:15 PM CDT
In force: 38 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND

County Ransom County, ND

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 116 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 12:00Z, 10.6 hours before the alert went out and 190 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2180 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -207 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1248 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 5 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 33 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 22, 2:58 PM CDT, 2 hours 39 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 22, 2:58 PM CDT, 2 hours 39 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
258 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2012

.SHORT TERM...
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE SEVERE TSTM CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER THIS THE NEXT CHANCE LOOKS TO BE AGAIN
BY MID WEEK.

TONIGHT...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A CUMULUS LINE FORMING ALONG A
KROX TO KTVF TO VALLEY CITY LINE. THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY
DIFFUSE IN REGARD TO TEMPS/MOISTURE VALUES DROPPING OFF. SFC DEW
POINTS ACTUALLY APPEAR TO BE HIGHEST JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WHERE
SOME SITES HAVE BEEN REPORTING VALUES IN THE LOW 70S. THIS IS PRETTY
DECENT MOISTURE CONSIDERING HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN. SFC TEMPS HAVE
RISEN INTO THE LOW 90S ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. THESE VALUES ARE
GIVING MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3500 J/KG. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE HIGHER
CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN BORDER AND ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT 40-45 KTS
WHILE ALONG THE SD BORDER THEY COME DOWN MORE TO 30-35 KTS. 700MB
TEMPS ARE ALSO WARMER CLOSER TO THE SD BORDER AND COOLER NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH ABOUT 1.5 INCHES
RIGHT AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY SO ANY STORMS COULD DROP SOME HEAVY
RAIN. THERE HAVE ALREADY BEEN TWO FAIRLY DECENT TSTM CELLS THAT HAVE
RESULTED IN WARNINGS UP OVER THE LAKE OF THE WOODS. SPC HAS ISSUED
SWOMCD 1539 DISCUSSING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. THEY HAVE MENTIONED THAT A WATCH IS POSSIBLE IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COVERAGE IS STILL A QUESTION AS CONDITIONS DO
LOOK MORE FAVORABLE TO THE NORTH BUT STORMS COULD BUILD TO THE SOUTH
ALONG THE BOUNDARY TOO. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THERE IS REALLY NO LOW
LEVEL JET TONIGHT SO CONVECTION SHOULD END IN THE EARLY EVENING.
THEREFORE ONLY KEPT CHANCES FOR PCPN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 06Z
TONIGHT BUT IT COULD BE DONE IN THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME.

MON-WED...LOOKS LIKE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO MOST OF THE
REGION FOR MONDAY WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTH. MODELS
ARE SHOWING A SHORT WAVE RIDING UP OVER THE RIDGE AND BRUSHING THE
ND/SD REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR
NORTH PCPN WOULD FALL SO CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW. WILL THEREFORE
MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED CHANCES FOR PCPN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH THRU
THE DAY MONDAY. ELECTED TO GO DRY FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH 12Z
MODELS LOOKING MUCH DRIER. STILL LOOKING LIKE BETTER PCPN CHANCES
DEVELOP AGAIN BY TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS ANOTHER BOUNDARY COMES
THROUGH. FORECAST ALREADY HAD GOOD CHANCES FOR STORMS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME SO LEFT THEM AS IS.

.LONG TERM (WED NIGHT-SUN)...
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL VALLEY WILL BRING A THREE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WED NIGHT. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
LOCATION OF UPPER LOW...HOWEVER GFS PRODUCING MORE PRECIP. LIKELY
DUE TO ONGOING MOIST BIAS WITH GFS DEWPOINTS. FOR THURSDAY...GFS
TAKES A MORE SOUTHERLY ROUTE FOR DEPARTURE OF THE LOW...RESULTING IN
ALLBLEND SOLN KEEPING HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHEAST. WILL TRIM
BACK SLIGHTLY ON THOSE POPS..REDUCING CHANCES TO AROUND 40 PER CENT.
WITH SLOWER DEPARTURE...GFS HOLDS ON TO SOME LOW POPS OVER FAR EAST
WHERE MY CONFIDENCE IS LOW WE WILL SEE SHOWERY ACTIVITY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH ALLBLEND SOLN...HOWEVER...AS TRENDS ARE FOR DECREASING
POPS. FRI NIGHT INTO SAT SHOULD BE DRY...THEN ANOTHER WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER ON SUNDAY...BRINGING A RETURN CHANCE FOR
TSTMS ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS AFT SUNSET TONIGHT...HOWEVER THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR TSTMS ACTIVITY AT BJI AND FAR LATE THIS AFTN AS A SFC
BNDRY MOVES THROUGH. BNDRY MAY INITIATE CONVECTION BY 21Z. NORTH
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

GODON/SPEICHER

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 22, 5:56 AM CDT, 11 hours 41 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
556 AM CDT SUN JUL 22 2012

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-231100-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-
GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
WESTERN WALSH-
556 AM CDT SUN JUL 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE EAST
OF A PARK RAPIDS TO FLAG ISLAND LINE WITH WEAKER STORMS PRODUCING
MAINLY LIGHTNING AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST.  THE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE LAKE OF THE WOODS TO ITASCA STATE
PARK REGION COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME EXACTLY HOW STRONG STORMS WILL BECOME
IS UNCERTAIN...SO STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED EAST OF A PARK RAPIDS TO FLAG
ISLAND LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JR

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 22, 1:23 PM CDT, 4 hours 14 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
123 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2012

MNZ005-006-221930-
LAKE OF THE WOODS MN-ROSEAU MN-
123 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXTREME EASTERN ROSEAU AND
NORTHERN LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

AT 119 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF WARROAD...OR 31 MILES EAST OF
ROSEAU...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE STORM.

THE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
LONG POINT AROUND 135 PM CDT.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IF THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND BECOME
SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4883 9469 4881 9468 4877 9469 4883 9524
      4901 9521 4901 9516 4903 9517 4908 9516
      4906 9473 4888 9467
TIME...MOT...LOC 1823Z 278DEG 26KT 4898 9508

HOPPES

Local storm report, Jul 22, 2:27 PM CDT, 3 hours 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
227 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     HAIL             BAUDETTE                48.71N 94.59W
07/22/2012  E1.75 INCH       LAKE OF THE WOODS  MN   NWS EMPLOYEE

            HAIL FELL AT THE LAKE OF THE WOODS CAMPGROUND.

&&

FGF

Local storm report, Jul 22, 2:31 PM CDT, 3 hours 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
231 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     HAIL             8 N PITT                48.83N 94.74W
07/22/2012  E1.00 INCH       LAKE OF THE WOODS  MN   PUBLIC

            THE HAIL FELL AT THE SPORTSMANS LODGE.

&&

FGF

Special weather statement, Jul 22, 5:37 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
537 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2012

NDZ038-049-053-222315-
BARNES ND-RANSOM ND-RICHLAND ND-
537 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN RICHLAND...RANSOM
AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN BARNES COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 534 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF LISBON...OR 29 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
VALLEY CITY...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS EXPECTED WITH THE STORM.

THE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
LISBON AROUND 545 PM CDT.
SHELDON AROUND 600 PM CDT.
ANSELM AROUND 605 PM CDT.
VENLO AROUND 610 PM CDT.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IF THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND BECOME
SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4658 9713 4634 9719 4635 9803 4652 9802
      4663 9783
TIME...MOT...LOC 2237Z 280DEG 22KT 4653 9773

VG

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 22, 12:19 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Lake of the Woods	41 min
Jul 22, 1:23 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	FGF	Lake of the Woods	67 min
Jul 22, 1:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Lake of the Woods	46 min
Jul 22, 2:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Lake of the Woods	36 min
Jul 22, 6:42 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Clay, Wilkin	34 min
Jul 22, 5:48 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Ransom, Richland	42 min
Jul 22, 6:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Ransom, Sargent	61 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in North Dakota, 2012 Every special weather statement in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.