Alert archive / Minnesota / Special Weather Statements in 2012

Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Forks, ND

June 19, 2012Hubbard County, Minnesota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this special weather statement at Jun 19, 2012, 3:26 PM CDT for Hubbard County, Minnesota. It was in force for 49 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 19, 2012, 3:26 PM CDT (20:26 UTC)
Expired: Jun 19, 2012, 4:15 PM CDT
In force: 49 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND

County Hubbard County, MN

The radar

The Duluth radar (KDLH), 191 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 12:00Z, 8.4 hours before the alert went out and 166 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 748 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 72 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 64 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 76 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jun 19, 3:07 PM CDT, 19 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 19, 3:07 PM CDT, 19 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
307 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. 700MB-850MB WARM FRONTS HAVE BEEN BASICALLY
STATIONARY MOST OF THE DAY...AND SFC WARM FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WILL NEED TO SHIFT PREVIOUS THINKING A BIT
SOUTH. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA
ALONG THE 700MB WARM FRONT. MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE HERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS GIVEN STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. 12Z ECMWF HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION BEST AND WILL
FOLLOW FOR DETAILS. 15Z RAP/HRRR RAISE CONFIDENCE IN ECMWF
SOLUTION. LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. TAKING ALL OF THE ABOVE IN
ACCOUNT...THINKING SFC WARM FRONT MAY LIFT A BIT MORE NORTH...BUT
NOT MUCH. THUNDER DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED JUST SOUTH OF THE FA BY
LATE AFTERNOON (ALONG WARM FRONT)...ALONG WITH GREATEST SEVERE
THREAT. ADDITIONAL SEVERE DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LIKELY INTO THE COOL
SECTOR AS 850MB WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASE. THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD AFFECT MAINLY GRANT...OTTERTAIL...AND WADENA
COUNTIES. THIS SCENARIO SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED ON FATHERS DAY.
850MB LOW WILL THEN TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY TO
KPKD FROM 00Z TO 06Z...WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING
POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE. HEAVY RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE
GIVEN POSSIBLE TRAINING AND PWATS AROUND 1.75 INCHES. TO THE
NORTH...SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS 700MB WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NW
FA. TRENDED POPS/WX ACCORDINGLY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE FA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY
DRY WX ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
VALUES.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...GFS/ECMWF IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT...BOTH SHOWING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMING HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS A NORTHERN ROCKIES SURFACE LOW SLIDES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS
ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER...TAPERING OFF TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT
NORTH OF HWY 2. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...DIFFICULT TAF FORECAST THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FIRST DEVELOPS NEAR THE ND/SD/MN BORDER
AREA AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD KBJI AND THE SECOND PROPAGATES
ACROSS NORTHERN ND. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL BE AT
KDVL/KBJI/KFAR AND HIGHLIGHTED THIS THREAT WITH TEMPO GROUPS.
REMOVED MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS STILL SUGGEST
LOWER CLOUD HEIGHTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...SO FUTURE AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY. LIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST WIND
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

TG/ROGERS

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 19, 5:41 AM CDT, 9 hours 45 minutes before

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In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jun 19, 12:26 PM CDT, 3 hours before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1226 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

MNZ024-028-031-032-191815-
EAST BECKER MN-EAST OTTER TAIL MN-HUBBARD MN-WADENA MN-
1226 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN BECKER...
NORTHEASTERN OTTER TAIL...NORTHERN WADENA AND SOUTHERN HUBBARD
COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM CDT...

AT 1220 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES WEST OF MENAHGA...OR 27 MILES EAST OF DETROIT
LAKES...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE STORM...ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

THE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
PARK RAPIDS AND HUBBARD AROUND 1235 PM CDT.
HUNTERSVILLE AROUND 1240 PM CDT.
EMMAVILLE AND DORSET AROUND 1245 PM CDT.
NEVIS AND BADOURA AROUND 1250 PM CDT.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IF THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND BECOME
SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4680 9466 4680 9477 4671 9478 4654 9524
      4690 9544 4720 9466 4705 9465
TIME...MOT...LOC 1726Z 244DEG 47KT 4675 9518

HOPKINS

Special weather statement, Jun 19, 2:28 PM CDT, 58 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
228 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

MNZ002-003-022-023-027-028-192030-
CLAY MN-EAST BECKER MN-MAHNOMEN MN-NORMAN MN-SOUTH CLEARWATER MN-WEST
BECKER MN-
228 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN CLEARWATER...BECKER...
NORTHEASTERN CLAY...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NORMAN AND SOUTHERN MAHNOMEN
COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

AT 225 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES WEST OF LAKE PARK...OR 19 MILES WEST OF DETROIT
LAKES...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE STORM...ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

THE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
AUDUBON AROUND 235 PM CDT.
DETROIT LAKES AND WESTBURY AROUND 240 PM CDT.
RICHWOOD...OGEMA AND CALLAWAY AROUND 245 PM CDT.
WHITE EARTH...WAUBUN AND ROCHERT AROUND 250 PM CDT.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IF THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND BECOME
SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4750 9521 4691 9520 4674 9626 4709 9632
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 244DEG 47KT 4690 9618

HOPKINS

Local storm report, Jun 19, 3:21 PM CDT, 5 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Jun 19, 3:26 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 19, 12:26 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	FGF	Hubbard	49 min
Jun 19, 2:28 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	FGF	Becker	62 min
Jun 19, 3:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Becker, Otter Tail	59 min
Jun 19, 3:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Becker, Clearwater, Hubbard	27 min
Jun 19, 5:41 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	FGF	Clay	64 min
Jun 19, 5:46 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	FGF	Hubbard	44 min
Jun 19, 6:23 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	FGF	Grant	52 min
Jun 19, 6:30 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	FGF	Becker	60 min
Jun 19, 4:48 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	FGF	Richland	57 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Minnesota, 2012 Every special weather statement in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.