Alert archive / North Dakota / Special Weather Statements in 2012

Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Forks, ND

June 14, 2012Wilkin County, Minnesota; Ransom County, Richland County, Sargent County, North Dakota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this special weather statement at Jun 14, 2012, 3:41 AM CDT for Wilkin County, Minnesota; Ransom County, Richland County, Sargent County, North Dakota. It was in force for 64 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 14, 2012, 3:41 AM CDT (08:41 UTC)
Expired: Jun 14, 2012, 4:45 AM CDT
In force: 64 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND

Counties Wilkin County, MN, Ransom County, ND, Richland County, ND, Sargent County, ND

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 145 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 00:00Z, 8.7 hours before the alert went out and 192 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1191 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -45 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1769 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 39 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 29 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 157 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.1
Supercell composite: 2.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jun 14, 2:21 AM CDT, 1 hour 20 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 14, 2:21 AM CDT, 1 hour 20 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
221 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

.SHORT TERM...

THE MAIN INITIAL CONCERN IS CURRENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH...AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH
THE FORECAST. MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH TIMING
DIFFERENCES FRI NIGHT WITH THE NAM THE FASTEST MODEL. THIS MAKES
SENSE GIVEN VERY PROGRESSIVE FLOW...SO WILL TREND THINGS A BIT
QUICKER WITH FRI NIGHT SYSTEM.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT AN MCS TO BE ONGOING DURING THE MORNING HOURS
LIKELY CROSSING INTO MN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE
STORMS THIS MORNING...THEN AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR EAST.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL BE INTO THE EASTERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH SHEAR AND DECENT CAPE...SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD
GET TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS MAINLY IN THE DVL BASIN...BUT NO
HEADLINES ATTM.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO MOVE OUT OF THE EAST SHORTLY
AFTER 03Z. PWATS WILL DECREASE AND EXPECT CLEARING FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN BY 12Z FRI.

ON FRI...THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING WESTERN ND LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM ABOVE NORMAL WITH PLENTY OF INSOLATION AND JUST SOME
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FOR FRI NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WITH AN INCREASING LLJ. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
TONIGHTS CONVECTION...SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN FOR
SOME SEVERE STORMS.

ON SAT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE
THREAT FOR THUNDER CONTINUING...WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLY SEVERE
MAINLY IN THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

GFS/ECMWF/GEM/DGEX NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
GENERAL IDEA IS FOR CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A
SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVES. TIMING AND LOCATION UNCERTAINTIES
ABOUND AND WILL MAINTAIN ALLBLEND CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S/LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S WILL BE
THE GENERAL RULE.

&&

.AVIATION...

CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH WINDS GUSTING TO
40KT PERHAPS NEAR STRONGER STORMS THIS MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30KT POSSIBLE IN THE WEST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

DK/ROGERS

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 14, 3:37 AM CDT, 4 minutes before

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In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jun 14, 1:20 AM CDT, 2 hours 21 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
120 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

NDZ038-039-049-052-140715-
BARNES ND-CASS ND-RANSOM ND-SARGENT ND-
120 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SARGENT...RANSOM...WESTERN CASS
AND BARNES COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL 215 AM CDT...

AT 115 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR COOPERSTOWN TO
JAMESTOWN TO NEAR OAKES...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS.

THE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
VALLEY CITY NEAR 145 AM CDT.
LISBON AND FORMAN NEAR 215 AM.

FOR MOTORISTS ON INTERSTATE 94...THE STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN NORTH
DAKOTA MILE MARKER 280 AND NORTH DAKOTA MILE MARKER 325...

THE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...ALSO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4627 9802 4628 9804 4662 9804 4663 9839
      4722 9847 4720 9735 4595 9726 4593 9801
TIME...MOT...LOC 0619Z 258DEG 39KT 4721 9832 4602 9817

DTR

Special weather statement, Jun 14, 2:08 AM CDT, 1 hour 33 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
208 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

NDZ027-029-030-038-039-049-052-053-140745-
BARNES ND-CASS ND-GRAND FORKS ND-RANSOM ND-RICHLAND ND-SARGENT
ND-STEELE ND-TRAILL ND-
208 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN GRAND FORKS COUNTY IN
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...AND RICHLAND...TRAILL...EASTERN STEELE...
EASTERN SARGENT...EASTERN RANSOM...CASS AND EASTERN BARNES COUNTIES
IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL 245 AM CDT...

AT 201 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF FINLEY
TO 16 MILES WEST OF CASSELTON TO LISBON...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 45
MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.

THE STORMS WILL EXTEND FROM...
NORTHWOOD TO MAYVILLE TO NEAR FARGO TO WEST OF WAHPETON AROUND 240
AM CDT.

FOR MOTORISTS ON INTERSTATE 29...THE STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN...MILE
MARKERS 10 AND 128...
FOR MOTORISTS ON INTERSTATE 94...THE STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN NORTH
DAKOTA MILE MARKER 319 AND NORTH DAKOTA MILE MARKER 348...

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IF THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND BECOME
SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4776 9703 4753 9692 4692 9688 4608 9663
      4600 9760 4679 9772 4740 9777 4773 9787
TIME...MOT...LOC 0705Z 257DEG 41KT 4759 9790 4744 9773
          4686 9747 4638 9751

DTR

Special weather statement, Jun 14, 3:41 AM CDT, 0 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 14, 4:24 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	FGF	Grant	36 min
Jun 14, 4:57 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	FGF	Lake of the Woods	63 min
Jun 14, 1:20 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	FGF	Barnes, Ransom, Sargent	55 min
Jun 14, 2:08 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	FGF	Cass, Ransom, Richland, Steele, Traill	37 min
Jun 14, 2:44 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Richland, Sargent	46 min
Jun 14, 4:53 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Barnes, Cass, Ransom, Richland	48 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in North Dakota, 2012 Special Weather Statements in Minnesota, 2012 Every special weather statement in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.