Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2012

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Grand Forks, ND

July 2, 20124 counties in Minnesota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 2, 2012, 7:19 PM CDT for 4 counties in Minnesota. It was in force for 56 min. 6 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 2, 2012, 7:19 PM CDT (00:19 UTC)
Expired: Jul 2, 2012, 8:15 PM CDT
In force: 56 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 70.0 mph

Counties Becker County, MN, Beltrami County, MN, Clearwater County, MN, Hubbard County, MN

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 190 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:21 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 2, 7:20 PM CDT	TSTM WND GST 60	13 Ne Park Rapids, MN	NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN AROUND CAMP WILDERNESS NEAR EMMAVILLE...WIND ESTIMATE BETWEEN 50 AND 70 MPH
Jul 2, 7:20 PM CDT	NON-TSTM WND GST 60	13 Ne Emmaville, MN	NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN NEAR CAMP WILDERNESS...WIND ESTIMATE BETWEEN 50 AND 70 MPH
Jul 2, 7:20 PM CDT	NON-TSTM WND GST 60	13 Ne Park Rapids, MN	NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN AROUND CAMP WILDERNESS NEAR EMMAVILLE...WIND ESTIMATE BETWEEN 50 AND 70 MPH
Jul 2, 7:25 PM CDT	TSTM WND GST 80	1 S Benedict, MN	NUMEROUS LARGE TREES WERE FELLED ACROSS ROADS AND DRIVEWAYS IN THE LAKE BENEDICT AREA. DAMAGING WINDS OCCURRED FOR SEVERAL MINUTES DURING THE STORM.
Jul 2, 7:31 PM CDT	TSTM WND GST 58	Park Rapids, MN
Jul 2, 7:37 PM CDT	TSTM WND GST 58	Park Rapids, MN

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 4 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 1 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 2, 6:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 00:00Z, 0.3 hours before the alert went out and 188 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2647 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -104 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1147 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 36 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 134 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 221 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 12.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

721 
WUUS53 KFGF 030019
SVRFGF
MNC005-007-029-057-030115-
/O.NEW.KFGF.SV.W.0051.120703T0019Z-120703T0115Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
719 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN BECKER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...
  SOUTHEASTERN BELTRAMI COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
  SOUTHEASTERN CLEARWATER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...
  HUBBARD COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT

* AT 716 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
  HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THE STORMS WERE
  LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES EAST OF NEBISH TO 2
  MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHAMBERLAIN...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 25 MPH.
  NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES ARE REPORTED DOWN IN THE CITY OF 
  BEMIDJI.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  HINES AROUND 725 PM CDT.
  BLACKDUCK AROUND 735 PM CDT.
  PENNINGTON AROUND 740 PM CDT.
  FUNKLEY AROUND 745 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

THE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE ACROSS 
THE CITY OF BEMIDJI. THE STORM IS DANGEROUS. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE 
A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TORNADO LIKE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED. MOBILE HOMES AND HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE AND MAY BE OVERTURNED. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. THE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SERIOUS
INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PROPERTY.

&&

LAT...LON 4740 9466 4681 9465 4681 9516 4678 9517
      4678 9525 4784 9524 4787 9441 4741 9441
TIME...MOT...LOC 0017Z 269DEG 23KT 4776 9470 4688 9468
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 1.00IN

$$

HOPKINS

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 2, 1:49 PM CDT, 5 hours 30 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 2, 1:49 PM CDT, 5 hours 30 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
149 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF BOUNDARIES AND WILL USE BLEND FOR FORECAST.

SOMEWHAT ABBREVIATED DISCUSSION DUE TO LOOMING SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. SURFACE BOUNDARY ORIENTED FROM ROUGHLY LANGDON/DVL
SOUTHWARD TO SURFACE LOW OVER N CENTRAL SD. SHORTWAVE ALONG WYO/SD
BORDER AREA WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL SUPPORT TO INCREASE
INTENSITY/COVERAGE OF CURRENT CONVECTION FROM CENTRAL TO NE ND.
WITH HIGH CAPE/INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR EXPECTING SVR
STORMS ORGANIZING THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN MN THIS
EVENING. WITH CURRENT CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX LIKELY TO
EVOLVE INTO BIG WIND THREAT ACROSS N MN. WILL ALSO INITIALLY SEE
SOME TORNADO THREAT AS SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTH ALONG BOUNDARY. AS
STORMS PICK UP SPEED THIS EVENING FEEL MOST CONVECTION WILL BE
EAST OF FA BY MIDNIGHT. UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS BEHIND BOUNDARY IN THE
LOW-MID 60S WHICH WILL BRING SOME RELIEF TO CURRENT HIGH HUMIDITY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY. WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER COLUMN
AND DEWPOINTS HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WILL NEED TO MONITORED.

LOW PRESSURE REORGANIZES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT AS NEXT WAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ROCKIES. BOUNDARY REACHES
CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY SO WILL ORIENT POPS ACROSS
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FA. RESPECTABLE WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASED
MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WARM.

BOUNDARY CROSSES FA ON THE 4TH WHICH WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF ACTIVE WEATHER. 70+ DEWPOINTS LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF BOUNDARY
AND CLOUD COVER WILL DETERMINE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AND
CORRESPONDING HEAT INDEX ADVISORY POTENTIAL.

BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND BY THURSDAY
AM PCPN SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHERN FA.

MODELS IN MORE AGREEMENT ON THURSDAY ON STALLING FRONT OUT ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL SD/S MN WHICH WOULD LIMIT PCPN POTENTIAL TO FAR
SOUTHERN FA. FARTHER NORTH HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LIMIT ANY RAIN
POTENTIAL AND STARTED PULLING POPS WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.

.LONG TERM (THU NIGHT-MON)...
MOST OF THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY RIDGING WITH THE
MAIN QUESTION BEING CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND TEMPS. MODELS ESSENTIALLY
AGREE WITH THE RIDGING BREAKING DOWN MORE INTO NORTHWEST FLOW BY SUN
INTO MON. CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A RIDGE RIDER SCENARIO WITH
PERIODIC CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND MODELS SHOWING THESE TO BE BETTER
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH/NE THIS IS POSSIBLE BUT HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT ANY AREA
THIS FAR OUT. AS NORTHWEST FLOW BUILDS IN SUN INTO MON PCPN CHANCES
START TO DWINDLE. TEMPS SHOULD STAY ABOUT NORMAL FOR JULY.

&&

.AVIATION...
TSTMS REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE 18Z SET OF TAFS. SEEING SOME
STORMS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY ATTM BUT MORE ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THRU THE AFTERNOON. THINK THE MAIN ACTION SHOULD
BE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING AND TAFS
REFLECT THIS THINKING. WIND SPEEDS OUTSIDE OF TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE PRETTY LIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ008-016-027-029-
     030-038-039-049-052-053.

MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>005-007-008-
     013>016-022-023-027>031-040.

&&

VOELKER/GODON

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 2, 6:56 AM CDT, 12 hours 23 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
656 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-031200-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-
GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
WESTERN WALSH-
656 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1PM TO 7PM TODAY ACROSS THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AND MN LAKES COUNTRY. HOT TEMPERATURES AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDICES OF 98 TO 105 DEGREES TODAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR DVL IN
MID AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE GFK AND FAR AREAS IN THE 5 TO 7PM
TIME FRAME. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING HAIL
AND WIND ALONG WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING HAIL AND WINDS. THE THREAT AREA
INCLUDES AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS A COLD
FRONT AND HUMID AIRMASS COMBINE TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND THE COLD FRONT
STALLS ACROSS THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

JK

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 2, 6:18 PM CDT, 1 hour 1 minute before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
618 PM CDT MON JUL 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     HAIL             5 E BEJOU               47.44N 95.86W
07/02/2012  E1.00 INCH       MAHNOMEN           MN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PUBLIC REPORT POSTED ON KVLY FACEBOOK SITE

&&

SPEICHER

Local storm report, Jul 2, 6:40 PM CDT, 39 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
640 PM CDT MON JUL 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             1 S DEBS                47.72N 95.13W
07/02/2012  E0.75 INCH       BELTRAMI           MN   AMATEUR RADIO

0635 PM     HAIL             1 W SHOREHAM            46.76N 95.92W
07/02/2012  E0.50 INCH       BECKER             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WINDS EST 50 TO 55 MPH

&&

MEWENS

Local storm report, Jul 2, 7:00 PM CDT, 19 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
700 PM CDT MON JUL 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0641 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 S BAGLEY             47.38N 95.40W
07/02/2012                   CLEARWATER         MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE 5 TO 6 INCH TREES DOWN ACROSS HIGH 92 TWO MILES
            SOUTHWEST OF LAKE MINERVA. RECORDED WIND GUSTS 45 MPH.

&&

MEWENS

Local storm report, Jul 2, 7:06 PM CDT, 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
706 PM CDT MON JUL 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BEMIDJI                 47.48N 94.88W
07/02/2012                   BELTRAMI           MN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SHINGLES BLOWN OFF OF A HOUSE IN BEMIDJI ... POSTED BY
            GENERAL PUBLIC ON THE KVLY FACEBOOK PAGE

&&

SPEICHER

Local storm report, Jul 2, 7:10 PM CDT, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
710 PM CDT MON JUL 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BEMIDJI                 47.48N 94.88W
07/02/2012                   BELTRAMI           MN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PUBLIC REPORT OF A 60 FT SPRUCE TREE BROKEN OFF ABOUT
            HALFWAY UP THE TREE WITH OTHER LIMBS DOWN IN THE AREA ...
            POSTED ON KVLY FACEBOOK SITE

&&

SPEICHER

Local storm report, Jul 2, 7:15 PM CDT, 4 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
715 PM CDT MON JUL 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0708 PM     HAIL             6 SW SNELLMAN           46.83N 95.50W
07/02/2012  E1.00 INCH       BECKER             MN   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

MEWENS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 2, 7:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Becker, Hubbard, Otter Tail, Wadena	63 min
Jul 2, 10:42 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Becker, Clay, Otter Tail, Wilkin	48 min
Jul 2, 11:06 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Otter Tail, Wadena	39 min
Jul 2, 11:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Otter Tail	49 min
Jul 3, 12:02 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Otter Tail, Wadena	58 min
Jul 3, 4:17 AM CDT	Heat Advisory	FGF	Grant, Otter Tail, Wadena, Wilkin	15 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Minnesota, 2012 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.