Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Grand Forks, ND

797 
WWUS53 KFGF 152129
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
429 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2012

MNC167-NDC077-152200-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0119.000000T0000Z-120815T2200Z/
RICHLAND ND-WILKIN MN-
429 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL WILKIN
COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND EAST CENTRAL RICHLAND COUNTY
IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

AT 423 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  THE
STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF EVERDELL...OR 6 MILES EAST OF 
WAHPETON...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 40 MPH.  THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY 
OF ONE INCH HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS.  

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  FOXHOME AROUND 435 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

&&

LAT...LON 4647 9630 4619 9629 4612 9686 4638 9686
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 255DEG 33KT 4630 9642
WIND...HAIL <50MPH 1.00IN

$$

DTR

737 
WWUS53 KFGF 152159
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
459 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2012

MNC167-NDC077-152209-
/O.EXP.KFGF.SV.W.0119.000000T0000Z-120815T2200Z/
RICHLAND ND-WILKIN MN-
459 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL WILKIN COUNTY IN WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND EAST CENTRAL RICHLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA WILL EXPIRE AT 500 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS !MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 4647 9630 4619 9629 4612 9686 4638 9686
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 255DEG 33KT 4637 9603

$$

DTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
230 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2012

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORM POTENTIAL...THEN TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL USE BLEND FOR FORECAST.

COLD FRONT BECOMING NEARLY N-S ORIENTED ENTERING WESTERN VALLEY
REGION ATTM. CAPE AND INSTABILITY INCREASING AHEAD OF FRONT AND
SHORT WAVE INTO WESTERN ND WILL PROVIDE UPPER SUPPORT AND AID IN
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. SOME MODEST TSRA CONFINED TO INL BORDER AREA
OVER FAR NE FA. CIN WEAKENING SO BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON COULD SEE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD.  CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
VALLEY REGION WILL BE ON WESTERN FRINGE OF STRONGER STORM POTENTIAL
WITH MORE FAVORED AREA ACROSS MN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA JUST EAST
OF VALLEY. WILL MENTION SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AREA. BY 00Z STORMS
LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN FA AND SHOULD CLEAR FA BY
MID EVENING. WILL MAKE SOME SLIGHT POP ADJUSTMENTS. FARTHER WEST
BEHIND BOUNDARY CONFIDENCE LOW ON ANY PCPN HOLDING TOGETHER INTO THE
EVENING. STRONG PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION HOWEVER SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND LACK OF ANY STRONG LOW LEVEL DRYING WILL LIMIT
TEMPERATURE DROP.

OTHER THAN AN ISOLD SHRA OVER LAKE OF WOODS AREA IN WRAP AROUND/COLD
POOL FROM DEPARTING LOW FA WILL BE DRY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. SOLAR ACROSS WEST HALF OF FA SHOULD OFFSET COOL COLUMN
BUT EVEN SO TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE WELL BLO AVERAGE. CU FIELD WITH
LOWER CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD PRIMARILY BE EAST OF VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER FA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH
SKC AND DIMINISHING WIND COULD GET PRETTY FRESH FRIDAY AM. WELL BLO
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE IN SPITE OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND
SURFACE WESTERLY FLOW.

WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH SATURDAY TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES BLO AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED)...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AS THE RIDGE
PROGRESSES EAST...THICKNESS VALUES WILL INCREASE RESULTING IN A SLOW
WARM UP THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT PASSING THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER
BRIEFLY TO MVFR CONDITIONS INVOF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH
RANGE CAN BE ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND SLOWLY
DIMINISHING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AFT 09Z.
&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

VOELKER/HOPKINS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
628 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2012

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-161130-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-
GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
WESTERN WALSH-
628 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN THIS MORNING AND SPREAD SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE ACTIVITY EARLY
IN THE DAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...BUT LIGHTNING WILL BE A
THREAT.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE BY THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF A FORMAN NORTH DAKOTA TO ROSEAU
MINNESOTA LINE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD...WITH A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT. THE LINE OF STORMS COULD PRODUCE
HAIL IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. THE LINE OF STORMS WILL PUSH EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE
AREA BY LATE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.