Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
254 AM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT WORKING ITS WAY INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SHIFT
INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA ZONES BY MIDDAY...BUT SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR
IS LAGGING BACK ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND I HAVE KEPT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY. INSTABILITY
IS MARGINAL ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA TODAY AND MODERATE ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA. WITH THE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND
LIMITED HEATING ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...
I DO NOT EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. IF CLOUDS BREAK AND CENTRAL GEORGIA HEATS UP A
LITTLE BETTER THAN EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WEAK NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND MUCH
DRIER AIR POINT TO A DRY AND PLEASANT END TO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NOTICEABLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS SUNDAY
MORNING BUT SHOULD CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER WITH THE DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE EVEN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD PROVE TO BE VERY COMFORTABLE FOR MID-AUGUST.

20

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM WITH
THE WESTERLIES DIPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A SERIES
OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. EACH SHORT WAVE WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO THE CWA. TIMING OF THESE WILL
BE DIFFICULT...ALTHOUGH IN THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT ON TIMING...JUST DIFFER ON STRENGTH.
THE OTHER PROBLEM ARE THE GUIDANCE TEMPS WHICH APPEAR TO BE TOO
COLD ON THE MIN TEMPS AND HAVE THEREFORE RAISED THEM BY A FEW
DEGREES.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME...AND
I EXPECT THE TREND TO CONTINUE. MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD BE
MVFR...WITH LOCAL TO SCATTERED AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS...BY 10Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MOSTLY VFR BY 16Z. OF COURSE EXPECT
LOWER CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF SCATTERED CONVECTION. BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH 12Z...SHIFTING SOUTH
AND EAST INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA 12Z THROUGH 00Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN
PREDOMINATELY SOUTHWEST TO WEST 4-8KT THROUGH 14Z...INCREASING TO
7-12KT AND GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH 22Z
BEFORE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          86  63  89  64 /  50  20   0   0
ATLANTA         85  65  87  69 /  30  10   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     81  60  85  55 /  40  10   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    85  61  86  58 /  30  10   5  10
COLUMBUS        86  68  89  70 /  60  20   0   0
GAINESVILLE     83  63  86  65 /  40  20   5  10
MACON           86  68  89  67 /  60  20   0   0
ROME            85  62  87  58 /  30  10   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  85  62  87  61 /  40  10   0   0
VIDALIA         88  73  90  73 /  60  30   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
547 AM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-121000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
547 AM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
TODAY.

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...ALONG WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP WILL BE NOON TO
10 PM...AND MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HAMILTON...TO JACKSON...TO
WASHINGTON.

.DISCUSSION...
THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WILL SLOWLY STABILIZE TODAY WHICH
WILL ALSO DIMINISH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS THOUGHOUT THE DAY.
HOWEVER ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CAPES WILL INCREASE TO 1000 TO
1500 THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND
THEN AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
152 AM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

GAZ014-021-022-032>034-110630-
152 AM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 35 MPH WINDS
IN CHEROKEE...COBB...DAWSON...FORSYTH...GWINNETT AND FULTON COUNTIES
UNTIL 230 AM EDT...

AT 149 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM BUFFINGTON TO SANDY PLAINS...MOVING EAST AT
25 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS CHEROKEE...COBB...DAWSON...FORSYTH...GWINNETT AND FULTON
COUNTIES THROUGH 230 AM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE
STORMS INCLUDE SWEAT MOUNTAIN...SANDY PLAINS...BUFFINGTON...UNION
HILL...HICKORY FLAT...MOUNTAIN PARK...BIRMINGHAM...FREE HOME...
LATHEMTOWN...ROSWELL...MILTON...HOLBROOK...DREW...DUCKTOWN AND
ALPHARETTA. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3441 8397 3439 8398 3435 8398 3428 8393
      3419 8399 3420 8403 3418 8406 3416 8406
      3412 8394 3393 8400 3399 8454 3413 8445
      3426 8445 3442 8399
TIME...MOT...LOC 0552Z 253DEG 21KT 3425 8436 3416 8435
          3403 8446

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
253 AM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

GAZ023-025-034-035-110730-
253 AM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 35 MPH WINDS
IN BARROW...GWINNETT...HALL AND JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 330 AM EDT...

AT 249 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM BUFORD DAM-LAKE LANIER PARKS TO HARBIN...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS BARROW...GWINNETT...HALL AND JACKSON COUNTIES THROUGH 330 AM
EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE BUFORD
DAM-LAKE LANIER PARKS...HARBIN...HOG MOUNTAIN...SUWANEE...SUGAR
HILL...LAWRENCEVILLE...GRAYSON...DACULA...BUFORD...REST HAVEN...LAKE
LANIER ISLANDS...AUBURN...CARL...CHATEAU ELAN AND AQUALAND PARK.
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED FOR WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...
HAIL LESS THAN THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3421 8376 3411 8364 3400 8359 3391 8377
      3393 8380 3383 8393 3399 8413 3405 8410
      3409 8411 3418 8406 3419 8399 3422 8396
      3428 8393
TIME...MOT...LOC 0652Z 239DEG 15KT 3416 8405 3405 8389
          3396 8386

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
255 AM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

GAZ006-008-009-110745-
255 AM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 35 MPH WINDS
IN UNION...TOWNS AND FANNIN COUNTIES UNTIL 345 AM EDT...

AT 253 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM MINERAL BLUFF TO JONES CREEK...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS UNION...TOWNS AND FANNIN COUNTIES THROUGH 345 AM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE JONES CREEK...HEMP...
HURST...MORGANTON...MINERAL BLUFF...EPWORTH...HIGDON...LOVING...
BLAIRSVILLE...NOTTELY DAM...IVY LOG...TRACK ROCK...GUMLOG...YOUNG
HARRIS AND ALEXANDERS MILL. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED FOR WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...
HAIL LESS THAN THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3499 8363 3476 8404 3485 8424 3490 8449
      3500 8431
TIME...MOT...LOC 0655Z 236DEG 23KT 3493 8428 3491 8415
          3486 8404

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
503 AM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

GAZ089>091-110945-
503 AM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 35 MPH WINDS
IN MUSCOGEE...MARION AND CHATTAHOOCHEE COUNTIES UNTIL 545 AM EDT...

AT 502 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER BATTLE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS MUSCOGEE...MARION AND CHATTAHOOCHEE COUNTIES THROUGH 545 AM
EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE FORT
BENNING/LAWSON ARMY AIR FIELD...AVONDALE...SAINT MARYS HILLS...
BENNING PARK...BENNING HILLS...CARTER ACRES...BATTLE PARK...CUSTER
ROAD TERRACE...SAND HILL...JAMESTOWN/SOUTH FORT BENNING...VISTA
TERRACE...CUSSETA...NORTH FORT BENNING...CHRISTOPHER AND EELBECK/WEST
FORT BENNING. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3224 8492 3227 8490 3232 8501 3242 8497
      3246 8500 3254 8468 3252 8469 3253 8465
      3252 8457 3255 8456 3254 8451 3256 8449
      3256 8445 3249 8443 3223 8442 3222 8443
TIME...MOT...LOC 0904Z 265DEG 26KT 3238 8495

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