Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
342 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2012

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PRIMARY CONCERN IS CHC FOR DEEP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE
DOMINATED BY LONGWAVE RIDGE IN THE WRN CONUS AND LONGWAVE TROUGH IN
THE EAST. SO FAR TODAY...CONVECTION HAS BEEN ISOLATED. HAVE DROPPED
NEAR TERM POPS BUT HAVE KEPT SLT CHC IN MOST PLACES. ANY CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 03Z EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY THE FAR SE COUNTIES. 12Z
MODELS SHOW SOME SORT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE LW TROUGH JUST TO OUR WEST THURSDAY...THOUGH THE GFS IS BY FAR
THE STRONGEST DEPICTING ITS INTENSITY. HPC QPF/POP GUIDANCE SEEMS TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SCT SHRA...
INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED FOR MUCH SVR CONVECTION. MAV TEMPS HAVE
DONE EXCEEDINGLY WELL THE LAST 30 DAYS. HAVE WEIGHTED HEAVILY TOWARD
PERSISTENCE AND BIAS-ADJUSTED MAV FOR TEMPS BUT TWEAKED TEMPS BASED
ON EXPECTED CLOUD/PRECIP COVERAGE.

SNELSON

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHNAGES EXPECTD TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING VICINITY OF GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON HOW
FAR SOUTH THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP...HOWEVER IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
DEEPENING EASTERN STATES TROUGH WILL PUSH THE SURFACE FRONT INTO
CENTRAL OR SOUTH GEORGIA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING IN AND ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...HAVE LEFT POPS
OUT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE RETURNING AGAIN BY MONDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW...SO MAINLY DIURNAL POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED. SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
TSRA COVERAGE SO FAR HAS BEEN NIL TO ISOLD TODAY. EXPECT MOST AREAS
TO REMAIN THIS WAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
STRATUS THAT FORMED THIS MORNING NOT LIKELY THURS MORNING. ONLY
PATCHY MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT AIRPORTS PRONE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING.
BETTER CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA THURS AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. HAVE ADDED PROB30 FOR TSRA TO ATL FOR 19-23Z BUT
COULD BE SOONER. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS. WINDS WILL KEEP A WEST
COMPONENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THURSDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  89  71  88 /  20  30  40  60
ATLANTA         74  88  72  85 /  20  40  40  60
BLAIRSVILLE     64  83  67  83 /  20  40  40  60
CARTERSVILLE    70  88  70  86 /  20  40  40  60
COLUMBUS        74  90  73  88 /  20  50  40  50
GAINESVILLE     71  87  70  86 /  20  30  40  60
MACON           73  89  72  89 /  20  40  30  50
ROME            71  89  70  87 /  20  30  40  60
PEACHTREE CITY  70  88  70  86 /  20  40  40  60
VIDALIA         75  90  74  88 /  30  30  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...SNELSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
440 AM EDT WED AUG 8 2012

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-090845-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
440 AM EDT WED AUG 8 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.
ALSO...WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HELP PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER THE
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HOWEVER SOME DRYING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEHIND A SURFACE FRONT. THIS
SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
418 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2012

GAZ016-082045-
418 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS
IN WHITE COUNTY UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 413 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5 MILES EAST OF SAUTEE TO LEAF...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS WHITE COUNTY THROUGH 445 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF
THESE STORMS INCLUDE WHITLEY GAP SHELTER...QUALATCHEE LAKE...
SMITHGALL WOODS CONSERVATION AREA...CAMP COLEMAN LAKE...UNICOI STATE
PARK...ANNA RUBY FALLS...ROBERTSTOWN...HELEN...SAUTEE...CLEVELAND...
LEAF AND MOSSY CREEK. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS.

THESE WIND GUSTS MAY PRODUCE MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOW
LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS AROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3476 8363 3465 8365 3454 8361 3450 8366
      3450 8377 3451 8378 3450 8384 3453 8383
      3456 8387 3468 8387 3472 8386 3473 8383
      3479 8381 3480 8369
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 315DEG 5KT 3466 8358 3458 8366

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
438 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2012

GAZ016-023-082115-
438 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND 50 MPH
WINDS IN WHITE AND NORTHERN HALL COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

AT 435 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LEAF...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE NICKEL SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
WHITE AND NORTHERN HALL COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS
IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE LEAF...CLEVELAND AND MOSSY CREEK.
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO...WEATHER.GOV OR OTHER MEDIA
OUTLETS FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THESE STORMS.

&&

LAT...LON 3463 8363 3458 8363 3456 8361 3454 8361
      3451 8365 3443 8361 3442 8362 3440 8375
      3463 8379 3466 8366
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 346DEG 4KT 3456 8366