Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
758 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE ATL AREA BUT JUST
NORTH OF THE CSG TO MCN AREA...GENERALLY AROUND LAGRANGE TO
MILLEDGEVILLE. SO FAR ALL OF THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN
SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE NORTH. WITH DCAPES AROUND 1000
J/KG...SVR POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. MODELS BRING SHORTWAVE INTO
NORTH GEORGIA TONIGHT AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
AND THUS MAY SEE ISOLATED TSRA OVERNIGHT. AS THE SHORTWAVE TONIGHT
SHIFTS OUT OF NORTH GEORGIA...ISOLATED TSRA CHANCES WILL DECREASE
AND THUS LIMITED POPS TO ONLY 10 PERCENT.

FOR MONDAY GREATEST MOISTURE STILL REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA AND WITH ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND DAYTIME
HEATING EXPECT THE AFTERNOON TSRA AGAIN. GFS SHOWS BEST INSTABILITY
REMAINING SOUTH OF THE CWA. SREF HOWEVER...KEEPS AN AREA OF DECENT
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND EVEN
DEPICTS DCAPES OF 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TOMORROW.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON JUST WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF TSRA WILL SET
UP...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA...OR JUST SOUTH OF IT. BY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THE ECMWF AND NAM BRING A SHORTWAVE INTO NORTH
GEORGIA...HOWEVER THE GFS IS A LITTLE SLOWER ON THIS. ALTHOUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...AFTERNOON TSRA MAY BE WINDING DOWN...MAY
SEE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH POTENTIAL
SHORTWAVE.

BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MET FOR MIN
TEMPS...ALTHOUGH STILL SOMEWHAT OF A BLEND. FOR THE MAX TEMPS THOUGH
LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV.

11

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE MADE ONLY A COUPLE OF TWEAKS TO POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING A BIT DRIER ACROSS THE NORTH
DURING THAT TIME...IN WAKE OF TUESDAY SHORT WAVE. ONLY LOWERED
POPS A BIT...DID NOT REMOVE THEM ALTOGETHER. OTHERWISE EXTENDED
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH EARLY MORNING FORECAST AND HAVE MADE NO
CHANGES.

41

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION/ISSUED 350 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012/

DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA TO
START THE LONG TERM WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. MODELS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORT WAVES IN THE
NW FLOW ALOFT TO AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ALLOWING
FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS POTENTIAL FOR
SHORT WAVES TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
AND LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THE REST OF THE LONG TERM.
THIS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A HIGHLY DIURNAL NATURE TO ANY CONVECTION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SOME FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 90S ON THE HIGH SIDE
AND THEN WARM TO THE UPPER HALF OF THE 90S TO NEAR 100 AT WEEKS END.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR FOG AROUND
SUNRISE AT THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS...MAINLY AHN AND MCN. EXPECT
MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WITH CU DEVELOPING ON MONDAY LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON 5-6KFT. EXPECT WINDS TO STAY ON THE
WEST SIDE EXCEPT FOR AHN...THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE DOES BRING NE
WINDS TO THE METRO TAFS. SPEEDS DIMINISHING GENERALLY BELOW 5KT
TONIGHT AND BACK ABOVE 5KT MONDAY. CHANCE OF THUNDER NOT GREAT
ENOUGH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON CIGS...VSBY...WIND SPEED...CONVECTION.
MEDIUM-HIGH ON WIND DIRECTION.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  96  71  92 /  10  20  20  40
ATLANTA         73  94  73  93 /  10  20  20  40
BLAIRSVILLE     64  89  68  87 /  10  20  20  50
CARTERSVILLE    64  95  70  92 /  10  20  20  40
COLUMBUS        74  96  73  94 /  10  30  30  40
GAINESVILLE     70  93  72  90 /  10  20  20  50
MACON           71  96  72  93 /  10  30  30  40
ROME            65  95  71  93 /  10  20  20  40
PEACHTREE CITY  65  93  71  93 /  10  20  20  40
VIDALIA         74  94  74  95 /  30  40  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
530 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-301000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
530 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS
EVENING.

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
TONIGHT.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LIGHTNING. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
FROM NEAR HAWKINSVILLE TO SWAINSBORO AND SOUTH...THIS EVENING.

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTH OF THE FRONT CAPES WILL INCREASE 1500 TO 3000 THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT WILL GIVE THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

16

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
326 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012

GAZ096-107-109-292000-
326 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING...PEA SIZED
HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS IN PULASKI...BLECKLEY AND DODGE COUNTIES UNTIL
400 PM EDT...

AT 324 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BAILEYS PARK OR 6 MILES EAST OF
HAWKINSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. ANOTHER STRONG STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR HAWKINSVILLE.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
PULASKI...BLECKLEY AND DODGE COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE MOBLEY CROSSING...
HARTFORD...HAWKINSVILLE...BAILEYS PARK...DUBOIS AND GRESSTON. MOVE
INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES AND YOU CAN NO LONGER HEAR THUNDER.
MANY LIGHTNING DEATHS OCCUR AFTER THE RAIN HAS ENDED.

&&

LAT...LON 3230 8320 3215 8339 3226 8353 3235 8338
TIME...MOT...LOC 1926Z 292DEG 11KT 3231 8337

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
343 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012

GAZ113-292015-
343 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING...PEA SIZED
HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS IN SOUTHERN TOOMBS COUNTY UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 342 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ENGLISH EDDY AND JUST NORTHEAST OF PLANT
HATCH...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
TOOMBS COUNTY THROUGH 415 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM INCLUDE TOOMBS CENTRAL...GRAYS LANDING...ENGLISH EDDY AND CEDAR
CROSSING. MOVE INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES AND YOU CAN NO LONGER
HEAR THUNDER. MANY LIGHTNING DEATHS OCCUR AFTER THE RAIN HAS ENDED.

&&

LAT...LON 3193 8228 3193 8237 3195 8239 3195 8240
      3196 8244 3208 8238 3201 8221 3191 8222
      3191 8225
TIME...MOT...LOC 1943Z 290DEG 14KT 3197 8228

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
447 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012

GAZ110-111-292115-
447 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN WHEELER AND TELFAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

AT 441 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED JUST WEST OF MCRAE...MOVING EAST AT 10
MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
WHEELER AND TELFAIR COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE HELENA...MCRAE...SCOTLAND AND TOWNS.
MOVE INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES AND YOU CAN NO LONGER HEAR
THUNDER. MANY LIGHTNING DEATHS OCCUR AFTER THE RAIN HAS ENDED.

&&

LAT...LON 3205 8270 3192 8283 3202 8299 3209 8290
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 286DEG 10KT 3205 8291

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
517 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012

GAZ102-292130-
517 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING...DIME SIZED
HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS IN SOUTHWEST STEWART COUNTY UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 513 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED ABOUT 6 MILES WEST OF SANFORD...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHWEST STEWART COUNTY THROUGH 545 PM EDT. MOVE INDOORS
UNTIL THE STORM PASSES AND YOU CAN NO LONGER HEAR THUNDER. MANY
LIGHTNING DEATHS OCCUR AFTER THE RAIN HAS ENDED.

&&

LAT...LON 3195 8497 3197 8497 3197 8504 3198 8506
      3200 8507 3201 8506 3207 8506 3209 8501
      3193 8487 3192 8492
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 333DEG 14KT 3201 8503

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
910 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012

GAZ111-112-300145-
910 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN WHEELER AND
MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM EDT...

AT 909 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER JORDAN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
WHEELER AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES THROUGH 945 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE GLENWOOD...ALAMO...SPRING HILL...
JORDAN...CHARLOTTEVILLE...UVALDA AND ALSTON. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3198 8271 3201 8273 3200 8276 3202 8279
      3205 8281 3206 8284 3221 8274 3210 8246
      3200 8248 3194 8251 3195 8256 3193 8261
TIME...MOT...LOC 0110Z 299DEG 12KT 3209 8270