Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
337 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CONVECTION STARTING TO DEVELOP WITH INFLUENCE OF AFTERNOON HEATING
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. ALSO...LEE SIDE TROUGH ACROSS THE CWA AND
WE ALSO MAY BE SEEING SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE SOUTHERN END OF A
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH KY AND TN. AS A RESULT...HAVE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND TAPERING OFF TO
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER 06Z. AXIS OF UPPER RIDGE REMAINS TO OUR WEST ON
TUESDAY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. THIS KEEPS
THE CWA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND MODELS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY
OF MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS. AT
THIS POINT...CHANCE POPS LOOK OKAY FOR TUESDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
AFTER 00Z. NO BIG CHANGES FOR TEMPERATURES AS A BLEND OF MAV/MET
LOOKS REASONABLE. MID 90S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA TUESDAY.

41

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO THE LONG TERM.
BDL

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE LONG TERM. A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
REMAINS OVER THE AREA AS THE RIDGE KEEPS THE STATE IN MOIST W TO SW
FLOW INTO MONDAY. ALL IN ALL WILL CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE AREA SAT PULLING IN DRIER AIR BEHIND IT FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
IS THE FIRST RUN THIS IS SHOWING UP IN SO NOT VERY CONFIDENT IN THIS
HAPPENING RIGHT NOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH PERSISTENCE BUT DEFINITELY
KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS PROGRESSES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL SHOWING NEAR 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH SO
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL STILL BE A CONCERN...AT
LEAST THROUGH WED/THU.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE. EXPECT
SCT CUMULUS AROUND 040 TO 050 DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION STILL EXPECTED DURING
AFTERNOON HEATING. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST LESS
THAN 10KT THIS AFTERNOON BUT COULD VARY IN DIRECTION DUE TO
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND IMPACT ON TAF SITES.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  96  73  99 /  30  30  20  30
ATLANTA         74  94  76  96 /  30  30  20  30
BLAIRSVILLE     69  91  70  90 /  30  30  20  30
CARTERSVILLE    69  95  70  98 /  30  30  20  30
COLUMBUS        75  95  75  97 /  30  30  20  30
GAINESVILLE     73  95  74  96 /  30  30  20  30
MACON           72  95  73  99 /  30  30  20  30
ROME            71  95  71  99 /  30  30  20  30
PEACHTREE CITY  70  94  71  96 /  30  30  20  30
VIDALIA         75  96  76  98 /  30  30  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
945 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-241000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
945 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DISCUSSION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
TODAY UNDER THE BROAD RIDGE ALOFT. CAPES WILL INCREASE TO 2000 TO
2500. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE
HIGH WILL AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ALLOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
344 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

GAZ072-082-232015-
344 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 35 MPH WINDS
IN JONES AND BIBB COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 341 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CROSS KEYS...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
JONES AND BIBB COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CROSS KEYS...MACON...MOUNTAIN SPRINGS...
POSTELL...GRISWOLDVILLE...PAYNE CITY...CLINTON...WESLEYAN...ARKWRIGHT
AND JARRELL PLANTATION. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3288 8384 3296 8370 3298 8372 3300 8372
      3301 8373 3303 8372 3305 8374 3311 8366
      3291 8344 3275 8362
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 132DEG 8KT 3291 8359