Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
240 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS AFTERNOON CONVECTION POPPING UP ACROSS THE
AREA AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA IS ACTING AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG. THIS BOUNDARY IS
CURRENTLY SOMEWHERE BETWEEN ATL AND MCN...AND SHOULD STALL JUST
SOUTH OF MCN TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT
AND INSTABILITY TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING PAST MIDNIGHT TONIGHT SO
WILL KEEP POPS IN THROUGH 06Z. THE LOCAL WRF MODEL ALSO SHOWS
CONVECTION CALMING DOWN CONSIDERABLY BETWEEN 04-06Z. THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR MORE CONVECTION ON TUESDAY... BUT
THE CONVECTION MAY INITIALLY BE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH... MORE ALONG
A CSG-MCN LINE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS.

01

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED ARE NECESSARY AS GFS AND ECMWF
REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. BOTH MODELS SHOW A WEAK UPPER
LOW/TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTING
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO NOTED
SAGGING INTO NORTH GA ON SATURDAY...AND LIKELY PROVIDING A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

39

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2012/
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE BACKING OFF SLIGHTLY...NOSING JUST INTO THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC BIGHT...AND ALLOWING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES OVER
GEORGIA INTO THURSDAY AND APPROACHES SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OUT
OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL
KEEP PRECIP CHANCES IN THE GOOD CHANCE CATEGORY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT. POSITIONING OF
THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS...CHANCE
CATEGORY...ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA OVERNIGHT EACH NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...AND THEN OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA SATURDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS DIFFER ON DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH ECMWF DEEPENING CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW BY MONDAY...LIFTING IT TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY
AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GFS INDICATING MORE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOLUTION...BUT LITTLE ELSE OF THE ECMWF
PROGNOSIS. AS OF NOW...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

CONVECTION THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE LARGELY COUPLED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON
AND LASTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MOIST ATMOSPHERE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEEK...AS EVIDENCED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AND
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONSISTENT THREAT THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
CONVECTION. HIGHS IN THE 90S EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S. WILL POTENTIAL AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD... COULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER
80S. 31

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT IN AND
AROUND TSRA DEVELOPMENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POPPING UP
ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 02-04Z. EXPECTING MORE
SHRA/TSRA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE SCT TO BKN IN THE
4000-5000FT RANGE AND SHOULD STAY THAT WAY. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF
PERIODS OF 2500-3000FT CEILINGS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY OUT OF THE W TO NW IN THE 5-10KT
RANGE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ON TIMING OF CONVECTION AT TAF SITES.
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  96  71  94 /  30  40  20  40
ATLANTA         72  93  72  92 /  30  40  20  40
BLAIRSVILLE     67  86  67  87 /  20  40  20  40
CARTERSVILLE    68  95  68  92 /  20  40  20  40
COLUMBUS        75  95  74  92 /  30  50  30  40
GAINESVILLE     72  93  72  91 /  20  40  20  40
MACON           73  95  72  93 /  30  50  30  40
ROME            69  95  69  93 /  20  40  20  40
PEACHTREE CITY  68  93  70  92 /  30  40  20  40
VIDALIA         72  95  74  95 /  30  50  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
454 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-170900-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
454 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION...PROMOTING AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS BETWEEN NOON AND 10 PM.

.DISCUSSION...
A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION...AND WITH
THE COMBINATION OF IT AND THE DAYTIME HEATING...THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CAPE
VALUES WILL PEAK IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE...AND WILL SUPPORT
SOME STRONG STORMS. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.8 INCHES AND K-INDEX VALUES IN THE MID
30S INDICATE THAT HEAVY RAIN REMAINS A THREAT IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND RISES OF SMALL CREEKS
AND STREAMS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVY DOWNPOURS RESULT FROM SLOW
MOVING STORMS. DAMAGING WIND IS ALSO A THREAT IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AS THIS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT PERSISTS
THROUGH THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
633 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

GAZ079-080-162300-
633 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 45 MPH WINDS IN TALBOT AND TAYLOR
COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 630 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PRATTSBURG...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
TALBOT AND TAYLOR COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BIG LAZER CREEK WMA...CARSONVILLE...
PRATTSBURG...WESLEY CHURCH...HOWARD...BALDWINVILLE AND JUNCTION CITY.
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

THESE WIND GUSTS MAY PRODUCE MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOW
LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS AROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3258 8447 3284 8443 3284 8442 3278 8438
      3277 8436 3279 8435 3276 8433 3276 8430
      3273 8425 3274 8424 3272 8422 3257 8421
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 004DEG 7KT 3275 8433

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
634 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

GAZ059-162300-
634 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 45 MPH WINDS IN JASPER COUNTY
UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 630 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MCELHENEYS CROSSROADS...MOVING SOUTH AT 5
MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
JASPER COUNTY THROUGH 700 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM INCLUDE MONTICELLO...MCELHENEYS CROSSROADS...HILLSBORO AND
ADGATEVILLE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

THESE WIND GUSTS MAY PRODUCE MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOW
LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS AROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3316 8361 3314 8382 3315 8381 3316 8383
      3318 8383 3319 8381 3321 8383 3325 8381
      3328 8383 3336 8381 3333 8360
TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 009DEG 3KT 3326 8372

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
638 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     LIGHTNING        S BLOUNT                33.18N 83.96W
07/16/2012                   MONROE             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BARN DESTROYED BY LIGHTNING.

&&

TDP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
644 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

GAZ003-004-162315-
644 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN WHITFIELD AND CATOOSA COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

AT 642 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR VARNELL...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
WHITFIELD AND CATOOSA COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE SALEM...COHUTTA...BLUE SPRING...
RINGGOLD...BOYNTON...INDIAN SPRINGS...GRAYSVILLE...FORT OGLETHORPE...
LAKEVIEW...BEAUMONT...VARNELL...TILTON...MILL CREEK...DALTON AND
ROCKY FACE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

THESE WIND GUSTS MAY PRODUCE MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOW
LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS AROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3498 8482 3493 8484 3487 8482 3478 8486
      3479 8487 3472 8485 3471 8494 3468 8489
      3468 8494 3464 8491 3462 8493 3462 8505
      3472 8505 3472 8517 3477 8514 3478 8520
      3485 8520 3486 8526 3498 8526
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 338DEG 4KT 3491 8502

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
647 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

GAZ062-075-162315-
647 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN WARREN AND GLASCOCK COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

AT 642 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SHOALS...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
WARREN AND GLASCOCK COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE FIVE POINTS...BEALL SPRINGS...
JEWELL...SHOALS...AGRICOLA...MITCHELL...EDGEHILL AND GIBSON. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

THESE WIND GUSTS MAY PRODUCE MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOW
LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS AROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3317 8259 3314 8258 3313 8266 3318 8274
      3325 8275 3327 8278 3331 8278 3331 8280
      3335 8280 3338 8264 3318 8257
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 347DEG 5KT 3327 8272

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
702 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

GAZ080-091-092-162330-
702 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 35 MPH WINDS
IN SCHLEY...MARION AND TAYLOR COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

AT 659 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM MAUK TO RUPERT...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS SCHLEY...MARION AND TAYLOR COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE RUPERT...MAUK...
CHARING...FIVE POINTS...CEDAR CREEK...CONCORD...WALLS CROSSING...
MURRAYS CROSSROADS...ELLAVILLE...PUTNAM...DOYLE...BRANTLEY...TAZEWELL
AND BUENA VISTA. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS.

THESE WIND GUSTS MAY PRODUCE MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOW
LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS AROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3218 8430 3236 8461 3256 8446 3257 8441
      3244 8417 3240 8420 3240 8425 3230 8425
      3229 8422
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 031DEG 5KT 3247 8441 3239 8428