Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
754 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH MAIN AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE CWA. STATIONARY FRONT STILL REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN
TN/NC...JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. FRONT WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY AND FAR NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...DAYTIME HEATING...MUCAPE VALUES
AROUND 2000 TO 2500 J/KG...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WITH THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY MEANDERING AROUND SOUTHERN TN/FAR NORTH
GA...EXPECT ENHANCED COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA AND THUS HAVE SHOWN
LIKELY POPS EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS THAT AREA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
ALSO HELP CONVECTION LAST LONGER THAN TYPICALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE STORMS TO LAST ALL NIGHT.

ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS NEAR ZERO...WITH HIGH CAPE...SIMILAR 500MB TEMPS
TO TODAY AND RECENT TRENDS...ISOLATED SEVERE WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY IN THE SHORT TERM. HPC SHOWS TWO DAY RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE TO
TWO INCHES ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA AND TAPERS DOWN TO ABOUT A
QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. ONE HOUR FFG VALUES ARE
ABOUT ONE AND A QUARTER TO TWO INCHES ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. AT THIS
POINT...WOULDNT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FLOODING WITH PREVIOUSLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND OVERALL MOVEMENT OF STORMS...BUT WITH TRAINING...CANT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING EVENT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

TEMPS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV ON WEDNESDAY WHEREAS OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE CLOSE TO A MAV/MET BLEND.

11

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE TRYING TO LIFT THE BOUNDARY NORTHWARD
THURSDAY...WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL GA.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT ON MAX TEMPS
IN THE 80S/LOW 90S. FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM...NO CHANGES
PLANNED AND PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/ISSUED 505 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012/
NO BIG CHANGES TO LONG TERM PATTERN. SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS
STALLED ACROSS GEORGIA FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WHILE A TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GULF.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD AID CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEK
MAINLY FAVORING THE NORTHERN SECTIONS. BY THE WEEKEND THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS WITH
THE ECMWF SHOWING A STRONGER RIDGE HOLDING THROUGH MONDAY. SO HAVE
LOWERED POPS A BIT FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

41/17

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD TSRA CONTINUES THIS EVENING...EVERYWHERE EXCEPT MCN FOR
NOW BUT MCN MAY GET INTO THE ACT IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT A
DECREASING TREND OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS LIFTING. WESTERLY WINDS
/GUSTING IN TSRA/ WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS WELL TO VRB...WITH A
WIND SHIFT EXPECTED SOMETIME WEDNESDAY MORNING...CURRENT TIMING IS
ABOUT 15Z. EXPECT MORE TSRA AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY AFTER
18Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH ON WIND SPEEDS...CIGS...AND VSBY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOW ON TIMING OF WIND SHIFT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  86  70  89 /  70  60  60  60
ATLANTA         72  87  70  88 /  60  60  40  60
BLAIRSVILLE     68  79  66  81 /  60  70  60  70
CARTERSVILLE    68  86  68  88 /  70  70  60  70
COLUMBUS        72  92  72  91 /  70  40  40  60
GAINESVILLE     71  84  69  86 /  70  70  60  70
MACON           72  92  71  92 /  30  50  40  50
ROME            71  88  70  89 /  70  70  60  70
PEACHTREE CITY  69  88  69  89 /  50  60  40  60
VIDALIA         75  95  74  93 /  40  40  40  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1032 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-111445-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1032 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH
TONIGHT WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE QUARTER SIZED HAIL...
60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. THE BEST TIME FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE UPPER LOW WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. WITH
CAPES INCREASING TO 2500 TO 3000...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. PEA TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT MAINLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. DUE TO A PERSISTENT
SURFACE BOUNDARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THERE REMAINS THE THREAT OF
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
824 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 PM     TSTM WND DMG     REDAN                   33.74N 84.13W
07/10/2012                   DEKALB             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            DEKALB 911 RELAYED A REPORT OF MULTIPLE POWERLINES DOWN
            IN THE REDAN AREA. TIME IS BASED ON RADAR.

&&

AGIBBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
824 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

GAZ067>070-078-110115-
824 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS IN PIKE...
MERIWETHER...LAMAR...UPSON AND HARRIS COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

AT 822 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER MANCHESTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
PIKE...MERIWETHER...LAMAR...UPSON AND HARRIS COUNTIES THROUGH 915 PM
EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE SHILOH...WARM
SPRINGS...MANCHESTER...HARRIS CITY...SPREWELL BLUFF STATE PARK...
RALEIGH...ROWLAND...CREST...SUNNYSIDE...WOODBURY...IMLAC...MOLENA...
HANNAHS MILL...ATWATER AND WOOSTER. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3322 8464 3306 8410 3282 8444 3286 8449
      3287 8447 3288 8450 3285 8456 3285 8470
      3277 8470 3281 8477
TIME...MOT...LOC 0024Z 215DEG 26KT 3284 8462

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
832 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

GAZ069-080-081-110115-
832 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS IN UPSON...TAYLOR
AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

AT 829 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER FICKLING MILL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
UPSON...TAYLOR AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 915 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE FICKLING MILL...HORNS...
ROBERTA...KNOXVILLE AND MUSELLA. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3285 8405 3269 8389 3256 8419 3270 8426
TIME...MOT...LOC 0032Z 236DEG 13KT 3269 8416

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
836 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

GAZ055-057-110115-
836 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS IN HENRY AND CLAYTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

AT 834 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER LAKE SPIVEY...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
HENRY AND CLAYTON COUNTIES THROUGH 915 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE MORROW...BONANZA...IRONDALE...JONESBORO...
LAKE SPIVEY...EAGLES LANDING AND STOCKBRIDGE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3361 8429 3350 8419 3342 8438 3345 8439
      3347 8438 3349 8440 3358 8442
TIME...MOT...LOC 0036Z 251DEG 3KT 3352 8431

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
838 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

GAZ036>038-050-110115-
838 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN OGLETHORPE...OCONEE...CLARKE AND GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM
EDT...

AT 834 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SALEM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS
OGLETHORPE...OCONEE...CLARKE AND GREENE COUNTIES THROUGH 915 PM EDT.
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE SALEM...WRAYSWOOD...
CAREY...PENFIELD...GRESHAMVILLE...GREENSBORO...FARMINGTON...NORTH
HIGH SHOALS...WOODVILLE...BISHOP...ROSE HILL...EASTVILLE...MAXEYS...
WATKINSVILLE AND BARNETT SHOALS.

&&

LAT...LON 3392 8288 3378 8299 3373 8295 3370 8300
      3367 8295 3359 8301 3349 8298 3336 8316
      3340 8324 3354 8327 3360 8335 3380 8349
      3390 8364 3400 8350 3404 8339 3400 8322
      3405 8313 3401 8305 3404 8297 3397 8278
TIME...MOT...LOC 0038Z 209DEG 12KT 3375 8335

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
839 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

GAZ024-110115-
839 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN BANKS COUNTY UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

AT 834 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HOMER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
BANKS COUNTY THROUGH 915 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM INCLUDE FIVE POINTS...BANKS CROSSING...HOMER...HOLLINGSWORTH
AND PINEFIELD CROSSROADS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3448 8343 3444 8338 3432 8339 3426 8334
      3420 8338 3420 8341 3426 8348 3425 8357
      3432 8365 3434 8365 3436 8367 3439 8366
      3449 8353
TIME...MOT...LOC 0039Z 234DEG 19KT 3438 8349