Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
317 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH MAIN AXIS JUST
WEST OF THE CWA. STATIONARY FRONT STILL REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN
TN/NC...JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. FRONT WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY AND FAR NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...DAYTIME HEATING...MUCAPE VALUES
AROUND 2000 TO 2500 J/KG...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WITH THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY MEANDERING AROUND SOUTHERN TN/FAR NORTH
GA...EXPECT ENHANCED COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA AND THUS HAVE SHOWN
LIKELY POPS EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS THAT AREA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
ALSO HELP CONVECTION LAST LONGER THAN TYPICALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE STORMS TO LAST ALL NIGHT.

ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS NEAR ZERO...WITH HIGH CAPE...SIMILAR 500MB TEMPS
TO TODAY AND RECENT TRENDS...ISOLATED SEVERE WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY IN THE SHORT TERM. HPC SHOWS TWO DAY RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE TO
TWO INCHES ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA AND TAPERS DOWN TO ABOUT A
QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. ONE HOUR FFG VALUES ARE
ABOUT ONE AND A QUARTER TO TWO INCHES ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. AT THIS
POINT...WOULDNT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FLOODING WITH PREVIOUSLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND OVERALL MOVEMENT OF STORMS...BUT WITH TRAINING...CANT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING EVENT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

TEMPS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV ON WEDNESDAY WHEREAS OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE CLOSE TO A MAV/MET BLEND.

11

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE TRYING TO LIFT THE BOUNDARY NORTHWARD
THURSDAY...WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL GA.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT ON MAX TEMPS
IN THE 80S/LOW 90S. FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM...NO CHANGES
PLANNED AND PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/ISSUED 505 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012/
NO BIG CHANGES TO LONG TERM PATTERN. SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS
STALLED ACROSS GEORGIA FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WHILE A TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GULF.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD AID CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEK
MAINLY FAVORING THE NORTHERN SECTIONS. BY THE WEEKEND THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS WITH
THE ECMWF SHOWING A STRONGER RIDGE HOLDING THROUGH MONDAY. SO HAVE
LOWERED POPS A BIT FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

41/17

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS ALREADY STARTED ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND CHANCE OF
TSRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 05-06Z...ALTHOUGH CHANCE IS LOWER FOR
MCN AND CSG THEN FOR THE NORTHERN SITES. ALTHOUGH HAVE SHOWN TEMPO
INCREASING TO PREDOMINANT TSRA AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES...CHANCES
ARE FAIRLY EQUAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD SEE ON AND OFF
THUNDERSTORMS RATHER THAN CONSISTENT TSRA. EXPECT VRB AND GUSTY
WINDS WITH TSRA. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW
MORNING AT ATL BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO TSRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE
ON WIND EXCEPT LOW CONFIDENCE NEAR TSRA AND IN THE MORNING. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  86  70  89 /  50  60  60  60
ATLANTA         72  87  70  88 /  50  60  40  60
BLAIRSVILLE     68  79  66  81 /  60  70  60  70
CARTERSVILLE    68  86  68  88 /  60  70  60  70
COLUMBUS        72  92  72  91 /  30  40  40  60
GAINESVILLE     71  84  69  86 /  60  70  60  70
MACON           72  92  71  92 /  30  50  40  50
ROME            71  88  70  89 /  60  70  60  70
PEACHTREE CITY  69  88  69  89 /  40  60  40  60
VIDALIA         75  95  74  93 /  30  40  40  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1032 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-111445-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1032 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH
TONIGHT WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE QUARTER SIZED HAIL...
60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. THE BEST TIME FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE UPPER LOW WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. WITH
CAPES INCREASING TO 2500 TO 3000...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. PEA TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT MAINLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. DUE TO A PERSISTENT
SURFACE BOUNDARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THERE REMAINS THE THREAT OF
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
647 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

GAZ045-102315-
647 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND 50 MPH
WINDS IN DEKALB COUNTY UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

AT 642 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BELMONT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE NICKEL SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
DEKALB COUNTY THROUGH 715 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM INCLUDE KLONDIKE...SNAPFINGER...ARABIA MOUNTAIN...BELMONT...
PANTHERSVILLE...AVONDALE ESTATES...LITHONIA...PINE LAKE...REDAN AND
STONE MOUNTAIN. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO...WEATHER.GOV OR OTHER MEDIA
OUTLETS FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THESE STORMS.

&&

LAT...LON 3386 8417 3377 8406 3375 8402 3372 8406
      3363 8411 3362 8412 3364 8416 3365 8421
      3373 8431
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 226DEG 11KT 3373 8415

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
656 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

GAZ055-102330-
656 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN CLAYTON COUNTY UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

AT 652 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER FOREST PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
CLAYTON COUNTY THROUGH 730 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM INCLUDE MORROW...JONESBORO...RIVERDALE...FOREST PARK...
HARTSFIELD-JACKSON AIRPORT...LAKE CITY...FORT GILLEM...CONLEY...
ELLENWOOD AND REX. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3365 8429 3363 8426 3360 8425 3359 8424
      3349 8437 3360 8446 3364 8446
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 228DEG 13KT 3362 8436

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
705 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W FELTON              33.89N 85.26W
07/10/2012                   HARALSON           GA   911 CALL CENTER

            HARALSON COUNTY 911 RELAYED A REPORT OF NUMEROUS TREES
            DOWN ACROSS WESTERN HARALSON COUNTY.

&&

AGIBBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
708 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

GAZ027-036>038-047-049-102345-
708 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN WALTON...OGLETHORPE...OCONEE...MORGAN...MADISON AND CLARKE
COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

AT 705 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM HARRISON TO SOCIAL CIRCLE...MOVING EAST AT
5 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS WALTON...OGLETHORPE...OCONEE...MORGAN...MADISON AND CLARKE
COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE
STORMS INCLUDE HARRISON...BEECHWOOD HILLS...STATE BOTANICAL GARDEN OF
GEORGIA...WINTERVILLE...WHITEHALL...BARRETTS MILL...ATHENS...
EASTVILLE...NORTH HIGH SHOALS...BISHOP...WATKINSVILLE...
HERNDONVILLE...EBENEZER...SOCIAL CIRCLE AND PANNELL. HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

THESE WIND GUSTS MAY PRODUCE MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOW
LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS AROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3423 8307 3417 8309 3415 8305 3407 8300
      3386 8313 3370 8339 3369 8340 3358 8355
      3363 8371 3370 8385 3397 8341 3425 8321
      3425 8316 3427 8311
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 283DEG 5KT 3421 8312 3390 8331
          3366 8367

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
711 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

GAZ039-102345-
711 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN WILKES COUNTY UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

AT 709 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TIGNALL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS WILKES COUNTY THROUGH 745 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH
OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE CELESTE...JACKSONS CROSSROADS...NEWTOWN...
WASHINGTON...MALLORYSVILLE...TIGNALL...FLORAL HILL...DANBURG...NORMAN
AND DELHI. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3369 8272 3381 8293 3395 8282 3395 8279
      3398 8278 3399 8265 3398 8264 3388 8260
      3388 8257 3387 8257
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 217DEG 11KT 3384 8276

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
711 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

GAZ104-102345-
711 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN SUMTER COUNTY UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

AT 707 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CROXTON CROSSROADS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
SUMTER COUNTY THROUGH 745 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM INCLUDE CROXTON CROSSROADS...PLAINS...SUMTER...MADDOX...
AMERICUS...HUNTINGTON AND NEW ERA. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3199 8445 3205 8443 3217 8426 3216 8426
      3216 8419 3220 8418 3203 8404 3190 8429
      3191 8433 3188 8433 3187 8435
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 235DEG 13KT 3200 8433