Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
251 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO
TUESDAY...SUPPLYING AMPLE MOISTURE TO THE REGION AS STATIONARY
BOUNDARY STRETCHES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY
SINK SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...KEEPING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. MODELS
NOT ENTIRELY IN AGREEMENT WITH LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD...AND SO HAVE TRIED TO GO WITH A
BLEND OF THE MODELS...SIDING SLIGHTLY WITH THE WETTER GFS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM. HAVE GONE WITH GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
NORTH OF THE ATL METRO AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND AT LEAST LOW
END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE METRO AREA SOUTHWARD INTO THE CSG AND
MCN AREAS. BEST THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE EACH AFTERNOON...WHERE
DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY.
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE LITTLE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION INTO THE LONG TERM...WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME DECENT
1.5-2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY. OVERALL...EXPECTING
MOST STORMS TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED STRONG STORMS AND A FEW SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH LIMITED
SHEAR AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND
HEAVY RAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL PRECIP
ACTIVITY SHOULD KEEP MORNING LOWS FROM DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY...SO
HAVE GONE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN MAV/MET BLEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S INTO THE
LATE SHORT TERM INTO THE EXTENDED WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
CONTINUING.

31

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

/ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012/
MODELS AGREE ON KEEPING A TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH
SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER IT IS
UNCERTAIN HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL ACTUALLY GET. OVERALL
THE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE THERE SHOULD BE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY THROUGH THE LONG TERM...FAVORING THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE STATE WITH HIGHER POPS. BY THE END OF THE WEEK THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK TO THE WEST SOMEWHAT SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND.

41/17

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTION SHOULD BE
CONCENTRATED ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA TODAY...GRADUALLY SPREADING
SOUTH INTO THE METRO ATL AREA TONIGHT. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND
POSITION...BUT BELIEVE BEST CHANCES FOR ATL AREA WILL BE 20-00Z
TODAY. EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY SCT
CONDITIONS...WITH INCREASING COVER INTO TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES
SHOULD BE ON THE RISE TUESDAY...AND HAVE INDICATED PROB30 FOR
AFTER 17-18Z. RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...JUST BEYOND THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD
VARY BETWEEN WSW AND W...AT 8-11KTS TODAY...3-5KTS OVERNIGHT...AND
THEN 7-10KTS AGAIN ON TUESDAY. SOME LOW END GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT FOR MODERATE ON TIMING
OF TSRA.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  93  71  89 /  40  50  60  50
ATLANTA         74  92  73  88 /  30  40  50  60
BLAIRSVILLE     69  83  68  81 /  60  70  70  70
CARTERSVILLE    70  91  69  88 /  50  60  60  60
COLUMBUS        74  94  73  92 /  20  30  40  40
GAINESVILLE     73  90  71  86 /  50  60  70  60
MACON           73  96  72  93 /  20  30  30  40
ROME            71  92  71  90 /  60  60  60  60
PEACHTREE CITY  71  92  69  89 /  20  40  40  50
VIDALIA         77  96  74  94 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
444 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-100845-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
444 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS A SURFACE
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE STATE.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SMALL HAIL...
BRIEF WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE BEST TIME FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING
HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A THUNDERSTORM AT MOST ANY TIME.

.DISCUSSION...
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK...HOWEVER CAPE VALUES SHOULD
INCREASE TO AROUND 2000 THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING NORTH GEORGIA FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
637 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

GAZ097-092315-
637 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS
IN LAURENS COUNTY UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

AT 635 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER HARLOW...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
LAURENS COUNTY THROUGH 715 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM INCLUDE DUDLEY...DEXTER...HARLOW...RENTZ...EAST DUBLIN AND
DUBLIN. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3257 8276 3233 8283 3242 8313 3260 8308
TIME...MOT...LOC 2238Z 283DEG 4KT 3249 8300

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
641 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

GAZ106-092315-
641 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS
IN CRISP COUNTY UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

AT 639 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER RAINES...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
CRISP COUNTY THROUGH 715 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM INCLUDE RAINES...WENONA...ARABI AND CORDELE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3190 8394 3191 8393 3192 8392 3194 8393
      3203 8376 3203 8371 3181 8363 3180 8382
      3181 8383
TIME...MOT...LOC 2241Z 251DEG 5KT 3190 8385

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
642 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

GAZ103-104-092315-
642 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS
IN WEBSTER AND SUMTER COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

AT 639 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CROXTON CROSSROADS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5
MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
WEBSTER AND SUMTER COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE SUMTER...MADDOX...HUNTINGTON...CROXTON
CROSSROADS...PLAINS AND AMERICUS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3195 8444 3191 8446 3191 8449 3201 8453
      3216 8426 3216 8418 3194 8392 3192 8392
      3191 8400 3191 8433 3188 8433 3187 8435
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 225DEG 4KT 3196 8440

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
702 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

GAZ025-027-036-092330-
702 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS IN MADISON...CLARKE
AND JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

AT 658 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CENTER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
MADISON...CLARKE AND JACKSON COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE SANFORD...CENTER...
NICHOLSON...WESTGATE PARK...OCONEE HEIGHTS...NEESE...JAMES HOLLAND
YOUTH SPORTS COMPLEX...SANDY CREEK RECREATION AREA...BARRETTS MILL...
ATHENS AND HULL. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3405 8326 3391 8330 3405 8355 3417 8339
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 320DEG 11KT 3404 8341

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
705 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

GAZ032-033-043-044-092330-
705 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS IN COBB...DOUGLAS
AND FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

AT 702 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SANDTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
COBB...DOUGLAS AND FULTON COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS
IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE SIX FLAGS OVER GEORGIA...
MABLETON...SANDTOWN...BANKHEAD AND CASCADE HEIGHTS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3377 8441 3362 8452 3368 8466 3382 8458
TIME...MOT...LOC 2305Z 288DEG 8KT 3371 8455

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
706 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

GAZ062-092330-
706 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS
IN WARREN COUNTY UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

AT 702 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER MESENA...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
WARREN COUNTY THROUGH 730 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM INCLUDE NORWOOD...CAMAK...WARRENTON...MESENA AND REESE. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. THE WARNING OVER
THE WESTERN PORTION OF WARREN COUNTY CONTINUES THROUGH 715 PM EDT.

&&

LAT...LON 3332 8269 3350 8274 3354 8261 3341 8254
      3336 8254 3334 8251
TIME...MOT...LOC 2306Z 263DEG 2KT 3343 8261