Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
812 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE POP AND WX GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS
..ESP MCS OVER ERN TN. LAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON BRINGING MCS DOWN INTO NRN COUNTIES AROUND 00-01Z AND
INTO ATL METRO AROUND 02-03Z. SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTH BUT
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS THIS EVENING IN NORTH
GA. WILL UPDATE HWO AS WELL.

SNELSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 158 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
GEORGIA REMAINS UNDER THE EASTERN END OF THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE GFS/NAM
AND ECMWF TO BUILD EASTWARD SOME FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...IT SHOULD NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS SCATTERED...MAINLY DIURNAL...CONVECTION.
PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. ANY WEAK MID LEVEL CIRCULATIONS FROM MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THAT MAKE IT
AROUND THE EASTERN POINT OF THE RIDGE...LIKE THE PAIR MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...
MAY HELP TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS WELL ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
EACH AFTERNOON. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ARE IN PLACE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE PRESENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...COMBINED WITH WEAK
SHEAR AND A LACK OF A STRONG FOCUSING MECHANISM THIS SHOULD KEEP
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT ISOLATED.

WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S...AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REMAIN UNCOMFORTABLY
HIGH...BUT COMBINED WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S IN MOST AREAS WE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

20

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO CURRENT LONG TERM PLANNED. PREVIOUS LONG TERM
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/ISSUED 414 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012/
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS.  THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALLOWING WEAK
IMPULSES TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST...
PROVIDING FOCUS FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. MODELS
AGREE MAIN FOCUS TO BE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
REMAINS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA...EVENTUALLY
SAGGING SOUTH BY SUNDAY NIGHT...SPREADING THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...
PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS NEAR 2 INCHES...AND PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY...SURFACE CAPES GREATER THAN 1500 EACH AFTERNOON WITH
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. BELIEVE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE COOL SIDE AS MODELS
MAY BE OVERDOING CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
ANTICIPATE LESS CLOUDS UNTIL HEATING KICKS IN EACH DAY AND HAVE
GONE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST.

ATWELL/17

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
PRIMARY CONCERN IS TIMING AND LIKELIHOOD FOR TSRA. BROKEN LINE OF
STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF ATL AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH. COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF SE WINDS AT ATL FOR AN HOUR OR TWO FROM 00-01Z.
SCATTERED OVER NORTH STORMS SHOULD PUSH INTO ATL METRO AROUND 02Z.
COVERAGE A LITTLE LOWER THAN FIRST THOUGHT SO MAY HAVE TO PULL
TEMPO FROM FCST IF COVERAGE CONTINUES TO DROP. TSRA SHOULD
DECREASE AND DISSIPATE AFTER 06Z AT MOST AREAS. EXPECT VFR
CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING EXCEPT PATCHY MVFR FOG AT
AIRPORTS THAT SEE RAIN TONIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR TSRA LIKELIHOOD.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  98  72  99 /  60  40  40  30
ATLANTA         75  97  75  96 /  50  40  40  30
BLAIRSVILLE     67  94  67  91 /  70  40  40  40
CARTERSVILLE    68  98  69  98 /  60  40  40  40
COLUMBUS        74  96  75  94 /  50  40  40  30
GAINESVILLE     73  97  73  98 /  60  40  40  40
MACON           74  96  74  96 /  50  40  40  30
ROME            69  98  69  98 /  60  40  40  40
PEACHTREE CITY  68  96  69  95 /  50  40  40  30
VIDALIA         76  96  75  96 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...SNELSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
715 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-061015-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
715 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH
ABOUT 10 PM ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW A COMPLEX OF STORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA THIS EVENING. ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVER MIDDLE GEORGIA AROUND MID EVENING.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH
GEORGIA. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM 8 PM
TO MIDNIGHT. LARGE HAIL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE STORMS.

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED STORMS ALREADY ONGOING HAVE BEEN MOSTLY PULSE VARIETY
WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVER
PARTS OF MIDDLE GEORGIA THROUGH AT LEAST MID-EVENING. A LARGE
COMPLEX OF STORMS IN EASTERN TENNESSEE IS WEAKENING BUT APPEARS
IT MAY HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT NORTH GEORGIA. IF SO...
DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. CAPE OVER NORTH GEORGIA STILL AROUND
2000 J/KG SO THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.  THE
STORMS SHOULD SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE ATLANTA METRO AREA AND ATHENS
AREA BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER MIDNIGHT. STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOULD
MOVE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TOWARD WESTCENTRAL GEORGIA AND MAY APPROACH
OR EXCEED SEVERE LEVELS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
GENERALLY SCATTERED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND AS DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL PREVAIL. THE
STORMS WILL BECOMING FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF A SOUTHWARD
SAGGING SURFACE BOUNDARY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
852 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

GAZ070-081-060115-
852 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN LAMAR AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

AT 850 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER GOGGINS...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
LAMAR AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 915 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE LIBERTY HILL...JOHNSTONVILLE...CHAPPEL
MILL...GOGGINS...MILNER...ALDORA...BARNESVILLE...REDBONE AND
PIEDMONT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3285 8411 3285 8406 3293 8406 3294 8412
      3299 8413 3299 8427 3308 8424 3319 8425
      3318 8422 3317 8404 3295 8404 3290 8406
      3285 8405 3285 8402 3282 8403
TIME...MOT...LOC 0052Z 026DEG 11KT 3311 8412

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
854 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

GAZ068-060130-
854 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN PIKE COUNTY UNTIL 930 PM EDT...

AT 850 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER WILLIAMSON...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
PIKE COUNTY THROUGH 930 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM INCLUDE WILLIAMSON...HOLLONVILLE...HILLTOP...ZEBULON...
CONCORD...MEANSVILLE...LIFSEY SPRINGS AND MOLENA. HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3308 8452 3310 8453 3313 8451 3318 8451
      3321 8445 3321 8440 3319 8437 3319 8424
      3308 8424 3299 8427 3300 8430 3299 8430
      3299 8448 3297 8452 3304 8454
TIME...MOT...LOC 0055Z 009DEG 14KT 3317 8432

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
903 PM EDT THU JUL 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0848 PM     HAIL             GRIFFIN                 33.25N 84.26W
07/04/2012  E1.00 INCH       SPALDING           GA   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED ALONG WITH ONE TREE DOWN AND
            A 55 MPH GUST.

&&

AGIBBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
905 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

GAZ071-060130-
905 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN MONROE COUNTY UNTIL 930 PM EDT...

AT 904 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER BRENT...MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
MONROE COUNTY THROUGH 930 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM INCLUDE COLLIER...FORSYTH...BRENT...RUSSELLVILLE AND
BOLINGBROKE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3293 8409 3293 8406 3295 8404 3314 8404
      3317 8392 3293 8374 3285 8389 3285 8406
TIME...MOT...LOC 0105Z 341DEG 21KT 3301 8400

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
919 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

GAZ020-021-060145-
919 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 45 MPH WINDS IN BARTOW AND
CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM EDT...

AT 913 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER WHITE...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THESE STORMS MOVE ACROSS BARTOW
AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES THROUGH 945 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH
OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE LAKE ARROWHEAD...KINGSTON...CASSVILLE...
WHITE...PINE LOG...ADAIRSVILLE...SUTALLEE...KELLOGG CREEK...HOBGOOD
PARK...LITTLE RIVER LANDING...BRIDGEMILL...STILESBORO...EMERSON...
GEORGE WASHINGTON CARVER STATE PARK AND RED TOP MOUNTAIN STATE PARK.

&&

LAT...LON 3410 8452 3410 8500 3437 8498 3436 8458
TIME...MOT...LOC 0119Z 346DEG 4KT 3424 8472

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
945 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

GAZ086-060215-
945 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 45 MPH WINDS IN EMANUEL COUNTY
UNTIL 1015 PM EDT...

AT 940 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NORTHEAST OF GARFIELD AND CANOOCHEE... AND
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH IS LIKELY AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS MAINLY
EASTERN EMANUEL COUNTY THROUGH 1015 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE CANOOCHEE...GARFIELD...TWIN CITY...
MODOC...GEORGE L SMITH STATE PARK...LEXSY...STILLMORE...NUNEZ AND
SWAINSBORO.

&&

LAT...LON 3254 8203 3255 8208 3251 8215 3248 8217
      3243 8218 3239 8221 3255 8252 3281 8214
      3266 8208 3261 8200
TIME...MOT...LOC 0144Z 034DEG 15KT 3266 8208