Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
757 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012/

SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CONCERNS ARE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND HEAT
AGAIN ON MONDAY. CONVECTION HAS BEEN RAPIDLY DEVELOPING DUE TO LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE SFC TROUGH. HRRR FAILED TO CAPTURE THIS
EARLIER DURING THE DAY WHILE THE WRF AND NAM SUGGESTED DEVELOPMENT.
HAVE INCREASED TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL GEORGIA. WITH MUCAPE UP TO 4000 J/KG AND WEAK SHEAR WITH
DRY LOW LEVELS... STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT. IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST MUCH
LONGER AFTER WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING... BUT ANY GENERATED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTO THE
EVENING. THERE MAY BE A SIMILAR SITUATION MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY IN PLACE AGAIN. WHILE SPC HAD MUCH OF
THE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK TODAY... ONLY THE FAR EAST CENTRAL PART
OF THE AREA IS SLIGHTED MONDAY... HOWEVER WE MAY HAVE STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR TEMPS... WHILE TEMPS TODAY HAVE BEEN A BIT HIGHER THAN
EXPECTED... GUIDANCE STILL HAS SLIGHT DECREASE IN MAX TEMPS FOR
MONDAY. USED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET WITH MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS
TRENDS. MONDAY SHOULD STILL HAVE THE SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP OF THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS STAYING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TRACKING ALONG NW FLOW ALOFT NEAR THE
CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH PROGGED 850MB TEMPS LOOK TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
LOWER THAN TODAY... DEWPOINTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND HEAT
INDICES OF 105-110 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS WILL STILL WARRANT AT
LEAST THE HEAT ADVISORY. AREAS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST MAY REACH HEAT
INDICES OF 110-113 DEGREES THEREFORE A POSSIBLE EXTENSION OF THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE UPDATES.

BAKER

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME RELIEF HERE AS THE UPPER HIGH THAT WAS CENTERED OVER THE STATE
WILL BREAK DOWN THE REST OF THE WEEK AS LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEAST.
WILL NOT QUITE GET INTO THE STRONGER NORTHWESTERLIES WHILE IN THIS
PATTERN BUT WILL SEE A WEAK FRONT MEANDER THROUGH THE AREA ON THURS.
EVEN WITHOUT FRONT...ISOLD DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ESP AS MEAN RH INCREASES ON THURS.
PREV FCST NO TOO FAR OFF. DID INCREASE MAX TEMPS A LITTLE ON TUES
AND WED AS CLIMATOLOGY MAY BE PULLING DOWN GUIDANCE TEMPS A LITTLE
TOO MUCH. HEAT INDICES MAY ALSO REMAIN A PROBLEM ON TUES IF DEW
POINTS DONT MIX OUT. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS AS AN ADVISORY MAY NEED
TO BE CONTINUED. HAVENT FORGOTTEN ABOUT THE TROPICS EITHER. ATLANTIC
BASIN LOOKS QUIET PER THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS...SOME ACTION LIKELY
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BUT WILL HAVE NO EFFECT HERE.

SNELSON

FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING FOR NORTH
AND MOST OF CENTRAL GEORGIA DUE TO LOW RH VALUES. THE LOWEST RH
VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN CLOSER TO 30 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WINDS SHOULD STAY 10 MPH OR LESS...THEREFORE NO HAZARDOUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ATTM. ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS OR
DEWPOINTS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR MONDAY.

BAKER

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 07-01

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1927     72 2003     76 1990     58 1937
                                        1936
   KATL      99 1954     73 2003     78 1947     59 1938
                                                    1937
   KCSG      99 2007     78 1966     78 1998     59 1958
                1998                                1950
                1990
   KMCN     103 1954     74 1924     78 1931     59 1923
                                        1897

RECORDS FOR 07-02

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1925     65 1943     76 1931     56 1937
   KATL      99 1954     68 1943     79 1996     58 1937
   KCSG     101 1990     72 1981     78 1996     59 1950
                1970
   KMCN     103 1954     77 1943     79 1931     58 2008
                                                    1937

RECORDS FOR 07-03

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1925     70 1943     77 1978     58 1932
   KATL     101 1925     74 1943     77 1931     60 1881
   KCSG     101 1970     75 1988     77 1997     64 1950
                                        1996
   KMCN     104 1970     78 1944     77 1931     63 2010
                                                    1919
                                                    1918

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL GA SHOULD STAY
SOUTH OF THE ATL AREA TAF SITES. THERE ARE SOME OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES THAT WILL AFFECT ATL BUT SHOULD ONLY SEE GUSTY WINDS.
ALL IN ALL THESE STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH 03Z VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST AFTER THAT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA MONDAY AFTER 20Z. THERE IS STILL ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING SO HAVE ONLY PUT IN A PROB30
BETWEEN 20Z-24Z MON. WINDS SHOULD STAY MAINLY NW BUT COULD GO VRB
IN AND AROUND TSRA DEVELOPMENT. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STAY IN THE
5-10KT RANGE. NO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED EXCEPT IN TSRA
DEVELOPMENT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          74 102  72  99 /  20  20  20  30
ATLANTA         77  99  75  95 /  30  20  20  30
BLAIRSVILLE     73  93  67  91 /  20  20  20  30
CARTERSVILLE    72 100  70  96 /  20  20  20  20
COLUMBUS        78 100  75  96 /  30  30  30  30
GAINESVILLE     76  99  73  96 /  20  20  20  30
MACON           74 101  73  97 /  30  30  30  30
ROME            73 103  70  98 /  30  20  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  72  98  71  96 /  30  20  20  30
VIDALIA         78  99  78  96 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CLARKE...CRISP...
DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...
HOUSTON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...
MADISON...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...TALIAFERRO...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...
TWIGGS...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...
WILKINSON.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CLARKE...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...
EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...
MORGAN...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...PULASKI...PUTNAM...
TALIAFERRO...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BUTTS...CARROLL...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...
DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GORDON...
GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...
LAMAR...MACON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MUSCOGEE...
NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...PAULDING...PIKE...POLK...ROCKDALE...
SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...
TAYLOR...TROUP...UPSON...WALTON...WEBSTER.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CATOOSA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...
MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1038 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-030245-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1038 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TONIGHT BUT A SURFACE TROUGH HAS PROVIDED THE FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL.

.DISCUSSION...
VERY HIGH INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 3000 J/KG HAVE
ALLOWED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA. THESE STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT SLOWLY
DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH A HEAT ADVISORY
ALREADY IN EFFECT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS
ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1234 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

GAZ094-095-105-107-020515-
1234 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS IN PULASKI...
PEACH...DOOLY AND HOUSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM EDT...

AT 1229 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER PERRY...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS PULASKI...
PEACH...DOOLY AND HOUSTON COUNTIES THROUGH 115 AM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS
IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE MEADOWDALE...HOUSTON LAKE...SAND
BED...KATHLEEN...BONAIRE...PERRY...MOSS OAK...CLINCHFIELD...OCMULGEE
PUBLIC FISHING AREA...GROVANIA...HAYNEVILLE...GROVE PARK...
HENDERSON...KLONDIKE AND ELKO.

&&

LAT...LON 3213 8380 3253 8382 3258 8357 3240 8349
      3240 8350 3238 8348 3225 8341
TIME...MOT...LOC 0434Z 357DEG 25KT 3245 8371

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1236 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

GAZ037-038-050-020500-
1236 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS IN OGLETHORPE...
OCONEE AND GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM EDT...

AT 1230 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER ROSE HILL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS PARTS OF
OGLETHORPE...OCONEE AND GREENE COUNTIES THROUGH 100 AM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE SALEM...ROSE
HILL...BARNETT SHOALS...FARMINGTON...WRAYSWOOD... MAXEYS...
CAREY...PENFIELD...GRESHAM VILLE...WOODVILLE AND GREENSBORO. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3351 8328 3353 8328 3354 8327 3355 8330
      3360 8335 3366 8337 3372 8344 3375 8345
      3385 8331 3385 8327 3368 8298
TIME...MOT...LOC 0436Z 320DEG 15KT 3376 8330

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1241 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

GAZ049-059>061-020515-
1241 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 45 MPH WINDS IN PUTNAM...
MORGAN...HANCOCK AND JASPER COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM EDT...

AT 1240 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM MADISON TO REESE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS THEY MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF
PUTNAM...MORGAN...HANCOCK AND JASPER COUNTIES THROUGH 115 AM EDT.
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE REESE...
MADISON...FARRAR...BUCKHEAD...GODFREY...CALVIN...SWORDS... WAR
FIELD...ROCKVILLE...CENTRAL GEORGIA EXPERIMENT
STATION...WILLARD...HARMONY...ROCK EAGLE 4-H CENTER AND PHOENIX.
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3335 8314 3321 8346 3329 8375 3350 8371
      3349 8368 3361 8368 3362 8367 3358 8355
      3369 8340 3360 8335 3353 8327 3349 8328
      3340 8324 3340 8322 3338 8322 3339 8319
TIME...MOT...LOC 0441Z 327DEG 11KT 3362 8338 3350 8348
          3353 8364

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1246 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

GAZ090>092-103-104-020530-
1246 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN WEBSTER...SUMTER...SCHLEY...MARION AND CHATTAHOOCHEE COUNTIES
UNTIL 130 AM EDT...

AT 1242 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER ZELLOBEE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS WEBSTER...
SUMTER...SCHLEY...MARION AND CHATTAHOOCHEE COUNTIES THROUGH 130 AM
EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE CHRISTOPHER...
MANTA...ZELLOBEE...BRANTLEY...BUENA VISTA...CHURCH HILL...
DRANEVILLE...PUTNAM...DOYLE...CONCORD...WALLS CROSSING AND
FRIENDSHIP.

&&

LAT...LON 3207 8434 3221 8465 3223 8465 3223 8470
      3227 8478 3244 8472 3234 8429
TIME...MOT...LOC 0447Z 286DEG 17KT 3233 8464

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
100 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

GAZ009-020530-
100 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS IN TOWNS COUNTY
UNTIL 130 AM EDT...

AT 1258 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER TITUS...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS TOWNS
COUNTY THROUGH 130 AM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM
INCLUDE TITUS...PLUM ORCHARD GAP SHELTER AND TATE CITY.

&&

LAT...LON 3499 8354 3495 8354 3494 8355 3493 8359
      3492 8359 3488 8365 3496 8376 3499 8372
      3500 8355
TIME...MOT...LOC 0500Z 288DEG 9KT 3495 8365

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
103 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

GAZ083-096-109-020545-
103 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN TWIGGS...BLECKLEY AND DODGE COUNTIES UNTIL 145 AM EDT...

AT 102 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER TARVERSVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS TWIGGS...
BLECKLEY AND DODGE COUNTIES THROUGH 145 AM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE DISTRICT PATH...BULLARD...MARION...
TARVERSVILLE...CARY...GOLDSBORO...MAGNOLIA...ROYAL...COLEY STATION...
PORTER...PAULK...COCHRAN...DUBOIS...GRESSTON AND YONKERS.

&&

LAT...LON 3226 8336 3227 8335 3240 8349 3248 8349
      3250 8352 3262 8355 3263 8354 3266 8356
      3268 8337 3232 8309 3223 8333
TIME...MOT...LOC 0503Z 342DEG 21KT 3256 8344