Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
441 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CONCERNS ARE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND HEAT
AGAIN ON MONDAY. CONVECTION HAS BEEN RAPIDLY DEVELOPING DUE TO LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE SFC TROUGH. HRRR FAILED TO CAPTURE THIS
EARLIER DURING THE DAY WHILE THE WRF AND NAM SUGGESTED DEVELOPMENT.
HAVE INCREASED TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL GEORGIA. WITH MUCAPE UP TO 4000 J/KG AND WEAK SHEAR WITH
DRY LOW LEVELS... STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT. IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST MUCH
LONGER AFTER WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING... BUT ANY GENERATED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTO THE
EVENING. THERE MAY BE A SIMILAR SITUATION MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY IN PLACE AGAIN. WHILE SPC HAD MUCH OF
THE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK TODAY... ONLY THE FAR EAST CENTRAL PART
OF THE AREA IS SLIGHTED MONDAY... HOWEVER WE MAY HAVE STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR TEMPS... WHILE TEMPS TODAY HAVE BEEN A BIT HIGHER THAN
EXPECTED... GUIDANCE STILL HAS SLIGHT DECREASE IN MAX TEMPS FOR
MONDAY. USED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET WITH MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS
TRENDS. MONDAY SHOULD STILL HAVE THE SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP OF THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS STAYING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TRACKING ALONG NW FLOW ALOFT NEAR THE
CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH PROGGED 850MB TEMPS LOOK TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
LOWER THAN TODAY... DEWPOINTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND HEAT
INDICES OF 105-110 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS WILL STILL WARRANT AT
LEAST THE HEAT ADVISORY. AREAS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST MAY REACH HEAT
INDICES OF 110-113 DEGREES THEREFORE A POSSIBLE EXTENSION OF THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE UPDATES.

BAKER

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME RELIEF HERE AS THE UPPER HIGH THAT WAS CENTERED OVER THE STATE
WILL BREAK DOWN THE REST OF THE WEEK AS LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEAST.
WILL NOT QUITE GET INTO THE STRONGER NORTHWESTERLIES WHILE IN THIS
PATTERN BUT WILL SEE A WEAK FRONT MEANDER THROUGH THE AREA ON THURS.
EVEN WITHOUT FRONT...ISOLD DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ESP AS MEAN RH INCREASES ON THURS.
PREV FCST NO TOO FAR OFF. DID INCREASE MAX TEMPS A LITTLE ON TUES
AND WED AS CLIMATOLOGY MAY BE PULLING DOWN GUIDANCE TEMPS A LITTLE
TOO MUCH. HEAT INDICES MAY ALSO REMAIN A PROBLEM ON TUES IF DEW
POINTS DONT MIX OUT. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS AS AN ADVISORY MAY NEED
TO BE CONTINUED. HAVENT FORGOTTEN ABOUT THE TROPICS EITHER. ATLANTIC
BASIN LOOKS QUIET PER THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS...SOME ACTION LIKELY
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BUT WILL HAVE NO EFFECT HERE.

SNELSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING FOR NORTH
AND MOST OF CENTRAL GEORGIA DUE TO LOW RH VALUES. THE LOWEST RH
VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN CLOSER TO 30 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WINDS SHOULD STAY 10 MPH OR LESS...THEREFORE NO HAZARDOUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ATTM. ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS OR
DEWPOINTS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR MONDAY.

BAKER

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 07-01

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1927     72 2003     76 1990     58 1937
                                        1936
   KATL      99 1954     73 2003     78 1947     59 1938
                                                    1937
   KCSG      99 2007     78 1966     78 1998     59 1958
                1998                                1950
                1990
   KMCN     103 1954     74 1924     78 1931     59 1923
                                        1897

RECORDS FOR 07-02

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1925     65 1943     76 1931     56 1937
   KATL      99 1954     68 1943     79 1996     58 1937
   KCSG     101 1990     72 1981     78 1996     59 1950
                1970
   KMCN     103 1954     77 1943     79 1931     58 2008
                                                    1937

RECORDS FOR 07-03

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1925     70 1943     77 1978     58 1932
   KATL     101 1925     74 1943     77 1931     60 1881
   KCSG     101 1970     75 1988     77 1997     64 1950
                                        1996
   KMCN     104 1970     78 1944     77 1931     63 2010
                                                    1919
                                                    1918

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. MOST NORTHERN SITES
APART FROM KATL HAVE BEEN HAVING VRB LIGHT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
HOWEVER THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NNW TO NW AND STAY UNDER
10KTS. KATL HAS BEEN MOSTLY NNW BUT HAS HAD INTERMITTENT VRB
PERIODS. THIS SHOULD ALSO MAINLY STAY NNW TO NW THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. CIGS LOOK TO STAY MOSTLY ABOVE 15KFT WITH FEW070
POTENTIALLY THIS LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING... BUT TOO LOW OF CHANCE ATTM TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          74 102  72  99 /  20  20  20  30
ATLANTA         77  99  75  95 /  30  20  20  30
BLAIRSVILLE     73  93  67  91 /  20  20  20  30
CARTERSVILLE    72 100  70  96 /  20  20  20  20
COLUMBUS        78 100  75  96 /  30  30  30  30
GAINESVILLE     76  99  73  96 /  20  20  20  30
MACON           74 101  73  97 /  30  30  30  30
ROME            73 103  70  98 /  30  20  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  72  98  71  96 /  30  20  20  30
VIDALIA         78  99  78  96 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CLARKE...CRISP...
DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...
HOUSTON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...
MADISON...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...TALIAFERRO...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...
TWIGGS...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...
WILKINSON.

HEAT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM EDT MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CLARKE...CRISP...
DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...
HOUSTON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...
MADISON...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...TALIAFERRO...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...
TWIGGS...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...
WILKINSON.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BUTTS...CARROLL...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...
DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GORDON...
GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...
LAMAR...MACON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MUSCOGEE...
NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...PAULDING...PIKE...POLK...ROCKDALE...
SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...
TAYLOR...TROUP...UPSON...WALTON...WEBSTER.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CATOOSA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...
MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...BAKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
606 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-022215-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
606 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TONIGHT BUT A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A THREAT
THROUGH AT LEAST 10 PM THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS
AND INSIDE THE PERIMETER IN THE ATLANTA METRO AREA.

.DISCUSSION...
VERY HIGH INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES OVER 6000 J/KG HAVE ALLOWED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF MIDDLE GEORGIA AND
WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA. THESE STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
EVENING BUT WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER.

RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING.
UNLESS A THUNDERSTORM MOVES NEARBY YOUR AREA...EXPECT HEAT INDICES
OF 100 TO 110 THROUGH AT LEAST 9 PM WITH VALUES AROUND 100
PERSISTING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH A HEAT ADVISORY
ALREADY IN EFFECT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS
ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
636 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

GAZ094-095-012300-
636 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH
WINDS IN PEACH AND HOUSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 632 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED NEAR CENTERVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
PEACH AND HOUSTON COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE WARNER ROBINS...LAKEWOOD...BYRON AND
CENTERVILLE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

THESE WIND GUSTS MAY PRODUCE MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOW
LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS AROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3255 8380 3269 8376 3269 8369 3267 8367
      3267 8363 3266 8362 3254 8365
TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 192DEG 19KT 3264 8370

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
707 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

GAZ057-058-012330-
707 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 35 MPH WINDS
IN BUTTS AND HENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

AT 705 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER JENKINSBURG. ANOTHER STRONG STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR JACKSON. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE AS THESE STORMS
DRIFT ACROSS PARTS OF BUTTS AND HENRY COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM EDT.
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE MCKIBBEN...LOCUST
GROVE...JENKINSBURG...STARK...WORTHVILLE...INDIAN SPRINGS STATE
PARK...FINCHERVILLE...FLOVILLA AND JACKSON.

&&

LAT...LON 3340 8413 3345 8393 3337 8386 3334 8386
      3333 8384 3323 8382 3321 8383 3319 8380
      3318 8382 3320 8386 3320 8412 3325 8412
      3329 8409 3331 8413
TIME...MOT...LOC 2306Z 267DEG 3KT 3335 8404

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
708 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             BERNER                  33.15N 83.83W
07/01/2012  E1.00 INCH       MONROE             GA   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORT RELAYED BY WMAZ METEOROLOGIST.

&&

SNELSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
716 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

GAZ057-012345-
716 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 35 MPH WINDS
IN HENRY COUNTY UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

AT 713 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER HAMPTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE LIKELY AS THIS STORM MOVES
ACROSS HENRY COUNTY THROUGH 745 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH
OF THE STORM INCLUDE ATLANTA MOTOR SPEEDWAY...HAMPTON... LUELLA...
FLIPPEN...LOCUST GROVE...BLACKSVILLE...MCDONOUGH...OLA AND
KELLEYTOWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3343 8430 3347 8429 3356 8410 3354 8405
      3350 8403 3348 8395 3345 8393 3341 8398
      3338 8398 3336 8403 3330 8408 3330 8413
      3334 8415 3336 8435 3344 8435
TIME...MOT...LOC 2317Z 246DEG 13KT 3339 8422

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
730 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

GAZ069-070-020000-
730 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 35 MPH WINDS
IN LAMAR AND UPSON COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

AT 726 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER REDBONE...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS STORM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTH LAMAR AND NORTHEAST UPSON COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM EDT.
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE GOGGINS...REDBONE...
BARNESVILLE...ALDORA...THE ROCK AND PIEDMONT.

&&

LAT...LON 3303 8426 3304 8425 3309 8424 3308 8404
      3295 8404 3293 8406 3293 8412 3292 8413
      3292 8427 3303 8427
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 085DEG 11KT 3300 8408

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
750 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

GAZ096-097-109-020015-
750 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 45 MPH WINDS IN LAURENS...
BLECKLEY AND DODGE COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

AT 746 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM DUBOIS TO RENTZ...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45
MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE LIKELY AS THESE STORMS MOVE
ACROSS LAURENS...BLECKLEY AND DODGE COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM EDT.
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE YONKERS...
RODDY...EMPIRE...CHESTER...LOWERY...HARLOW...RENTZ... DEXTER...
CADWELL... BAILEYS PARK...COCHRAN...ROWLAND...PLAINFIELD...DUBOIS
AND GRESSTON.

&&

LAT...LON 3213 8331 3215 8332 3218 8330 3223 8335
      3243 8337 3246 8315 3253 8288 3231 8272
      3227 8275 3222 8283 3214 8298 3211 8333
TIME...MOT...LOC 2349Z 320DEG 40KT 3230 8324 3229 8306
          3235 8290