Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
257 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WEST GA MOVING WEST INTO AL. CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS WHAT
APPEARS TO BE THE WEDGE FRONT USHERING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE NW AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DEWPOINTS ACROSS NE GA
ARE ALREADY DOWN ALMOST 10 DEG SINCE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD DOWN THE
EASTERN U.S. PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO GA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WITH
THIS DRIER AIR MOVING IN TEMPS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

01

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING CONTINUES
TO BECOME MORE DEEPLY ENTRENCHED DOWN THE APPALACHIANS. MOISTURE
RESIDING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY WEEK.
NORTH AND CENTRAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY INTO MONDAY...WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NE GA MOUNTAINS. THROUGH NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE
DOMINATE SYNOPTIC FEATURE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST...AND MODEL UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS HIGH. AS A RESULT...HAVE TENDED TOWARDS THE
DRIER SOLUTIONS...AND HAVE GONE WITH LITTLE OR NO POPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

MODEL TEMPERATURES SEEM LOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH GUIDANCE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. AS A RESULT...HAVE INCREASED HIGHS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM 4-5 DEGREES...CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

31

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
BACKDOOR DRY WEDGE FRONT IS STABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE AND
CLEARING THING OUT ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GA. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OUT OF THE EAST IN THE 5-10KT RANGE. WILL SEE SOME GUST
TO 18KT THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. CEILINGS WILL STAY VFR WITH NO
PRECIPITATION OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          63  84  60  83 /   5   5   0   0
ATLANTA         66  84  63  83 /  10   5   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     61  83  59  80 /   5   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    64  85  59  84 /  10   5   5   0
COLUMBUS        69  87  63  88 /  20   5   0   0
GAINESVILLE     64  84  62  82 /   5   5   0   0
MACON           66  88  62  87 /  10   5   0   0
ROME            66  89  60  86 /  10   5   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  63  85  57  83 /  10   5   0   0
VIDALIA         67  87  66  86 /  10   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1118 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2012

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-151200-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1118 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE.

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS OVER MUCH OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA. HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR WILL PUSH INTO EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING. THE MOST FAVORED TIME FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER ISOLATED STORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS
MORNING.

.DISCUSSION...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH NEAR 1600 CAPE THIS
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW
POSSIBLY SEVERE. THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
517 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012

GAZ102-142145-
517 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN STEWART COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

AT 512 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER WESTVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
STEWART COUNTY THROUGH 545 PM EDT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3192 8492 3194 8496 3195 8497 3197 8497
      3197 8499 3212 8495 3209 8465 3192 8465
      3192 8486
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 021DEG 6KT 3199 8479

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
518 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012

GAZ078-089-142200-
518 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN MUSCOGEE AND HARRIS COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 516 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER MOUNTAIN HILL...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
MUSCOGEE AND HARRIS COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3279 8493 3249 8493 3248 8500 3252 8501
      3259 8508 3262 8509 3264 8511 3267 8510
      3269 8512 3273 8512 3275 8515 3278 8513
      3280 8514
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 004DEG 12KT 3270 8505

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
533 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0522 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LUMPKIN                 32.05N 84.79W
06/14/2012                   STEWART            GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STEWART COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE RELAYED A REPORT OF A

            DOWNED TREE IN LUMPKIN. RADAR ESTIMATED TIME OF 1722 EDT.

&&

RGARCIA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
540 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012

GAZ090>093-102>104-142215-
540 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN WEBSTER...SUMTER...STEWART...SCHLEY...MARION...MACON AND
CHATTAHOOCHEE COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

AT 535 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM MANTA TO ANDERSONVILLE...MOVING WEST AT 5
MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS WEBSTER...SUMTER...STEWART...SCHLEY...MARION...MACON AND
CHATTAHOOCHEE COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3239 8475 3230 8429 3226 8404 3211 8410
      3206 8445 3219 8483
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 263DEG 4KT 3228 8467 3220 8444
          3222 8416

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
541 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0454 PM     HAIL             2 SE DRANEVILLE         32.20N 84.47W
06/14/2012  E1.00 INCH       MARION             GA   PUBLIC

            THE DRANEVILLE LOCAL STORE REPORTED QUARTER SIZED HAIL
            ALONG WITH WATER RUNNING THROUGH THE AISLES.

&&

DEESE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
557 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012

GAZ089-090-142230-
557 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 35 MPH WINDS
IN MUSCOGEE AND CHATTAHOOCHEE COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

AT 553 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CUSSETA...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
MUSCOGEE AND CHATTAHOOCHEE COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3224 8492 3225 8492 3227 8490 3231 8497
      3243 8496 3239 8474 3223 8480
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 038DEG 7KT 3235 8481