Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1047 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012

.UPDATE...

HAVE MADE SEVERAL MINOR TWEAKS TO GRIDS THIS MORNING...MOSTLY WITH
POPS AND WX. EVEN WITH THE BREAK IN RAIN THAT PART OF THE AREA IS
SEEING NOW...STILL EXPECT THAT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN AT SOME
POINT...SO JUST INCREASED POPS TO 100 PERCENT EVERYWHERE.
INSTABILITY IS NOT INCREASING QUITE AS MUCH AS ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED AS TEMPS IN NORTH GEORGIA ARE REMAINING COOLER. GFS
MLCAPE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON DOES BRING AROUND 1000 J/KG
TOWARD THE METRO AREA AS DOES THE SPC MESOANALYSIS/RAP FORECAST.
HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS NORTH AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...EXPECT A PRETTY TIGHT INSTABILITY GRADIENT. THAT SAID...
HAVE KEPT CHANCE THUNDER DOWN SOUTH BUT HAVE REMOVED THUNDER
WORDING FOR TODAY IN EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES. WILL REEVALUATE THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN PACKAGE. ALSO
DECREASED MAX TEMPS JUST A TAD TO LINE UP WITH TRENDS. UPDATED
ZONES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

TDP

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 716 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GFS/NAM SIMILAR WITH A WET PERIOD IN STORE THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS DUE TO MOIST SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY THAT MOVES OVER THE AREA MONDAY. SHOWERS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH A 20-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK WARM
FRONT ROUGHLY OVER S AL/GA WILL DRIFT N TODAY/TONIGHT AND LIKELY
DISSIPATE. GFS/NAM STRUGGLING WITH FORECAST STABILITY. MUCAPES MUCH
HIGHER ON THE GFS IN THE 1000-2000 RANGE OVER CENTRAL AND THE
SOUTHERN PART OF N GA TODAY AND THE NAM MORE LIKE 400-800. GFS ON
THE WHOLE IS MUCH HIGH THAN THE NAM FOR MONDAY AS WELL. ALL IN ALL
THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS OVER CENTRAL AND MAYBE
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF N GA TODAY AND MOSTLY HIT OR MISS AND BRIEF.

FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 6-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY
AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES
RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.

BDL

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS MAINTAIN UPPER TROUGH OR SOME SEMBLANCE OF OUR AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH WEAKENING IT WITH TIME.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVING ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL
GEORGIA WEDNESDAY WITH REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY MEANDERING
SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA INTO FRIDAY. WILL NEED TO
KEEP GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH FRONT MOVING INTO THE STATE. POPS
TAPERING BACK INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH BEST CHANCE CENTRAL SECTIONS...DUE TO BOUNDARY OVER OR IN THE
VICINITY OF THAT AREA. HAVE HELD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY
OVER SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SATURDAY WITH GFS INDICATING LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AND THE POSSIBILITY OF DEEPER
MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA.

TEMPS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY...BUT GENERALLY RUNNING ABOVE FOR
THE REST THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

49

HYDROLOGY...
FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS TODAY/TONIGHT RUNNING IN THE 1/2 TO 1.5 INCH
RANGE AND 1/2 TO 1 INCH RANGE FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THESE AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE HANDLED FINE BY AREA LAKES...STREAMS AND CREEKS.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM
COULD LEAD TO A HEAVY RAIN EVENT WITH MINOR FLOODING FOR SOME AREAS.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE..
MAIN CONCERN IS IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND HOW MUCH IMPROVEMENT TODAY.
WHILE SOME IMPROVEMENT IS REASONABLE WILL NOT GO BETTER THAN
MVFR CEILINGS. SOME MVFR AND EVEN BRIEF IFR VSBYS WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS.
SURFACE WINDS E-S UP TO AROUND 10 KTS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE TO HOW MUCH AND
WHERE. CSG/MCN A LITTLE BETTER FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THAN ATL
AREA OR AHN. BDL

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WINDS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR CEILINGS AND VSBYS.
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          77  67  82  67 / 100  90  90  70
ATLANTA         77  68  81  68 / 100  90  90  70
BLAIRSVILLE     69  65  74  64 / 100  90 100  80
CARTERSVILLE    78  68  81  67 / 100  90  90  70
COLUMBUS        82  71  84  70 / 100  80  70  50
GAINESVILLE     73  67  78  66 / 100  90  90  80
MACON           82  70  86  70 / 100  70  70  50
ROME            78  69  81  67 / 100  90  90  70
PEACHTREE CITY  78  68  81  66 / 100  90  90  60
VIDALIA         84  71  88  71 / 100  60  70  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
531 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-110945-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
531 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
TONIGHT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE GEORGIA-FLORIDA BORDER LIFTS
NORTHWARD.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS
WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING.

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR THE GEORGIA-FLORIDA BORDER TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE BEST AREA TO SEE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CENTRAL GEORGIA. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WEAK WITH CAPE VALUES GENERALLY 500 OR LESS...SO NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1246 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012

GAZ086-101715-
1246 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AN ENHANCED RISK OF BRIEF
TORNADOES AND 45 MPH WINDS IN EMANUEL COUNTY UNTIL 115 PM EDT...

AT 1242 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CANOOCHEE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS LOCALIZED...WEAK ROTATION...BUT NOTHING STRONG ENOUGH
TO INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A TORNADO AT 1242 PM EDT. STILL...THE
ENVIRONMENT NEAR THIS STORM SUGGESTS AN ENHANCED RISK OF A BRIEF...
GENERALLY WEAK...TORNADO FORMING. WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AS THE LINE MOVES ACROSS EMANUEL COUNTY THROUGH 115 PM EDT.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE CANOOCHEE AND
GARFIELD.

EVERYONE IN THIS AREA IS URGED TO REMAIN INDOORS AND BE ALERT TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE AND WEAK TORNADOES THAT FORM AND
DISSIPATE RAPIDLY. ONCE THIS THUNDERSTORM MOVES EAST OF YOUR AREA...
THE RISK OF TORNADO FORMATION WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED FOR WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...
HAIL LESS THAN THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3258 8214 3272 8227 3282 8214 3281 8213
      3278 8212 3266 8208 3264 8204
TIME...MOT...LOC 1645Z 231DEG 16KT 3271 8214