Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
949 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012

UPDATE...
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION WELL UPSTREAM IN WESTERN TENNESSEE JUST
ENTERING NORTHWEST ALABAMA AT THIS TIME. CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF THE
FORECAST GRIDS AND THE TEXT PRODUCTS CONTINUE TO COVER THIS EVOLUTION
WELL SO NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. MAIN SHORT WAVE
FURTHER BACK OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY AND THIS IS COVERED WELL IN
THE CURRENT GRIDS AS WELL.

20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN GETTING READY TO AFFECT THE AREA AS
SHORT WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW LOOK TO BRING A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ROUGHLY LATER TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY AND
LATER MONDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED THAT
THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS LATER TONIGHT AND A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR HOW MUCH OVERALL INSTABILITY BUT GENERALLY
THINK THERE IS PLENTY OF DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVES.
THERE IS ALSO CONCERN THAT THE GFS AND NAM ARE EITHER OVERDOING OR
UNDER-DOING THE SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY. HIGHEST POPS OVER NW GA TONIGHT
WITH 60-70 PERCENT AND 60 TO 70 PERCENT FOR N AND MUCH OF CENTRAL GA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR MONDAY.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

BDL

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST RUN OF MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ONGOING PRECIP AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERING SOMEWHERE
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO
SOUTH GEORGIA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TREND WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH BEST CHANCE OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
LOW CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WITH MODELS SHOWING A WEAK
IMPULSE SKIRTING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS...AND
THE REMNANTS OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY MEANDERING NEAR THE GEORGIA-
FLORIDA BORDER. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE STATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY BUT COULD STILL SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE MODELS HOLD ON TO SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE. GENERALLY DRY FORECAST ON TAP FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING...BUT LATEST GFS SHOWING
SOME RETURN MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AS IT SHIFTS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY.

49

FIRE WEATHER...
HUMIDITY LEVELS STRUGGLING TO REACH CRITICAL VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON AND WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN AN ISSUE. WILL LET FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT EXPIRE AT 6 PM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY SO NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

49

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THIS PERIOD OUTSIDE
OF AREAS OF CONVECTION. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z...WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED BEFORE AND AFTER THIS TIME PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 3-7KT THROUGH 14Z...
INCREASING TO 8-11KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT AFTER.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 06Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AFTER DUE TO
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          67  82  64  83 /  30  70  60  30
ATLANTA         69  83  67  82 /  50  70  60  20
BLAIRSVILLE     63  80  60  79 /  50  70  60  30
CARTERSVILLE    66  81  63  83 /  60  70  60  30
COLUMBUS        70  88  70  87 /  20  50  50  30
GAINESVILLE     67  82  64  80 /  40  70  60  30
MACON           67  86  68  87 /  20  70  60  40
ROME            67  85  66  84 /  60  70  60  20
PEACHTREE CITY  65  82  66  83 /  50  70  60  20
VIDALIA         69  88  71  86 /  20  70  60  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....27
AVIATION...20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
811 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-041845-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
811 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REST OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WILL WORK
ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL. WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA OVERNIGHT...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE NORTH OF A LINE
FROM LA GRANGE TO MACON TO ATHENS.

.DISCUSSION...
A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT TRIGGERING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA.  ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL OVERNIGHT...SUFFICIENT LIFT AND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISTURBANCE MAY HELP SUPPORT OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS.  WHILE SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED IN THIS AREA TONIGHT...SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A SERIES OF POTENT SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOVE INTO NORTH
GEORGIA LATE MONDAY. THIS LINE WILL RACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE CHANCE OF SEVERE
STORMS TO THE AREA. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1222 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012

GAZ001>004-012-040500-
1222 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN
WHITFIELD...WALKER...CATOOSA...DADE AND GORDON COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM
EDT...

AT 1220 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AROUND CEDAR GROVE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS WHITFIELD...WALKER...CATOOSA...DADE AND GORDON COUNTIES
THROUGH 100 AM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS
INCLUDE CEDAR GROVE...RISING FAWN...CENTER POST...LINWOOD...
LAFAYETTE...NOBLE...SUTTLES MILL...NAOMI...WOOD STATION...VILLANOW...
MILL CREEK...RESACA...TILTON AND DALTON. HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3481 8557 3481 8490 3471 8490 3471 8494
      3467 8490 3468 8491 3467 8493 3462 8490
      3457 8490 3459 8508 3460 8552
TIME...MOT...LOC 0421Z 272DEG 29KT 3468 8538