Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
601 PM EST SAT JAN 7 2012

.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO GRIDS AND FORECAST PRODUCTS...ADJUSTED POPS...WEATHER...
CLOUDS AND QPF TO BETTER FIT CURRENT NEAR TERM TRENDS. ADJUSTED AREAS
FOR THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AND UPPED POPS A BIT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE CURRENT LINE OF CONVECTION. STILL BELIEVE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNDOWN SO KEPT THUNDER
CONFINED TO THE EVENING HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD RIGHT NOW SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 145 PM EST SAT JAN 7 2012/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS SIMILAR WITH MOVING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND STALLING IT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. GENERALLY WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW ALONG WITH GULF MOISTURE WITH AID THE
CHANCES FOR MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH AND PARTS OF CENTRAL GA
THROUGH MONDAY. INSTABILITY OVERALL IS WEAK SO NO MORE THAN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IF ANY AT ALL.

A WARM AIRMASS IS IN PLACE CAUSING FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES TO RUN
AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT AND 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
MONDAY.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE LONG TERM...
BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM APPEARS TO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUE/WED. NEXT MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE TX GULF COAST MONDAY EVENING. AS IT DEEPENS AND
BECOMES A CLOSED LOW...IT MOVES NE INTO THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS BY
WED AFTERNOON. AS THIS LOW CENTER MOVES NE IT PULLS THE STALLED COLD
FRONT FROM THE SHORT TERM NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO TN TUES
KEEPING GA IN THE THE WARM MOIST SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. THE NEW COLD
FRONT WITH THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM SWEEPS THROUGH GA WED
MORNING/AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING THAT MUCH INSTABILITY
WITH MOST UNSTABLE AND SURFACE BASED CAPES ONLY GETTING UP INTO THE
250-300J/KG RANGE AROUND 12Z WED. SHEAR VALUES ARE PRETTY
HIGH...WHICH IS MOSTLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT A 40-60KT LOW LEVEL JET
AROUND 850MB MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT. 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR PEAKS OUT AT 64KT AROUND 12-18Z WED. THIS IS STILL 3-4 DAY
AWAY AND THE MODELS CAN CHANGE FROM NOW UNTIL THEN...SO THIS WILL
DEFINITELY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR TIMING AND INTENSITY. TEMPS WILL
STAY WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS UNTIL THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
BRINGING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO WHERE THERE SUPPOSE TO BE THIS TIME OF
YEAR. 01

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
HOLES DEVELOPING IN LATEST SATELLITE LOOP SHOULD BRING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES. A FEW SITES MVFR AND GENERAL
IMPROVING TREND NOTED. WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
MAINLY 5 TO 10 TS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AROUND THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH BETTER CHANCES
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE...WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE...WEATHER...VISIBILITY...CIGS
12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          48  65  48  66 /  60  60  60  60
ATLANTA         51  65  54  67 /  70  60  60  60
BLAIRSVILLE     48  56  47  59 /  60  60  70  60
CARTERSVILLE    48  64  50  67 /  60  60  60  60
COLUMBUS        51  70  54  72 /  30  40  40  20
GAINESVILLE     49  60  50  64 /  60  60  70  60
MACON           48  70  52  73 /  20  30  30  20
ROME            48  62  50  66 /  50  60  60  60
PEACHTREE CITY  48  66  50  69 /  60  60  60  60
VIDALIA         51  71  53  74 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
905 AM EST SAT JAN 7 2012

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-081000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
905 AM EST SAT JAN 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH GEORGIA TONIGHT.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE LIGHTNING OVER THE AREA FROM GAINESVILLE
TO MARIETTA TO FRANKLIN...NORTH AND WEST...THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL GIVE THE POSSIBILITY FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST UNSTABLE CAPES ARE EXPECTED IN THE 200
TO 600 RANGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

BDL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
529 PM EST SAT JAN 7 2012

GAZ012-013-019>021-030-072300-
529 PM EST SAT JAN 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL IN POLK...
PICKENS...BARTOW...CHEROKEE...FLOYD AND GORDON COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM
EST...

AT 523 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM HINTON TO CEDARTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS
THEY MOVE ACROSS POLK...PICKENS...BARTOW...CHEROKEE...FLOYD AND
GORDON COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EST. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF
THESE STORMS INCLUDE ETNA...FOLSOM...FAIRMOUNT...HINTON...
KINGSTON...BLAINE...SENEY...CEDARTOWN...PINE LOG...FUNKHOUSER...
CASSVILLE...TALKING ROCK...TALMADGE...WHITE AND ANTIOCH. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3423 8509 3455 8464 3450 8433 3447 8432
      3447 8426 3444 8426 3412 8473 3408 8479
      3408 8492 3397 8497 3395 8499 3395 8505
      3392 8505 3398 8541 3403 8542
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 281DEG 19KT 3448 8461 3420 8500
          3403 8528

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
607 PM EST SAT JAN 7 2012

GAZ031-032-072330-
607 PM EST SAT JAN 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL IN PAULDING AND
COBB COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EST...

AT 603 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER DALLAS...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...OCCASIONAL
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
PAULDING AND COBB COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EST. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE DALLAS...BURNT HICKORY RIDGE...HIRAM...
CROSS ROADS...NEW HOPE...DUE WEST...KENNESAW STATE UNIVERSITY...LOST
MOUNTAIN PARK...JIM R MILLER PARK...WHITE WATER PARK...DOBBINS AIR
RESERVE BASE...POWDER SPRINGS...MARIETTA AND KENNESAW. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3395 8498 3405 8494 3406 8493 3406 8450
      3383 8452 3388 8498
TIME...MOT...LOC 2307Z 273DEG 22KT 3396 8487