Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1136 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

.AVIATION...
TAIL END OF STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT.
VARIABLE MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD INTO HILL COUNTRY...
NORTHERN PORTIONS TOWARD MORNING. VSBYS WILL ALSO LOWER TO MVFR
AND IFR IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. I-35 CORRIDOR
TERMINALS VFR TO OCNL MVFR CIGS/MVFR TO IFR VSBYS IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BECOMING VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 10 KTS LATE
TONIGHT. WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE IN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. KDRT
TERMINAL VFR CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TOWARDS DAWN IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CIGS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AFTER DAWN BECOMING VFR BY NOON. EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS
BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KTS AFTER DAWN. WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS
POSSIBLE IN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012/

UPDATE...
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE AND PRONE TO A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
OVERNIGHT. LATE EVENING UPDATE ISSUED TO LOWER EVENING POPS AND
FURTHER REDUCE POPS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. COMPLEX
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FORMING OVER NORTH CENTRAL TX SUGGEST
THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN COULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK. WILL CONTINUE SEVERE MENTION IN CASE THE ISOLATED
CELLS NEAR THE CONCHO VALLEY OF WEST CENTRAL TX BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 833 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012/

UPDATE...
FORECAST UPDATE TO CANCEL WATCH NUMBER 662 FOR THE WESTERN
COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL AN ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE
THREAT FOR SW KINNEY COUNTY AROUND 10 PM...AN HOUR AFTER THE
WATCH WAS SET TO EXPIRE. HI-RES MODEL DATA SUGGEST...THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT EAST INTO OUR CENTRAL LATE TONIGHT...AS
STORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED...AND EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST. THUS THE MORE CONCENTRATED
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35
CORRIDOR COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT 2-8 HOURS. FORECAST UPDATE MAINLY
IS TO EXPAND SEVERE THREAT EAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WILL
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012/

AVIATION...
TAIL END OF STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT.
VARIABLE MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH SCATTERED
TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VSBYS WILL
ALSO LOWER TO MVFR AND IFR IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
I-35 CORRIDOR TERMINALS VFR TO OCNL MVFR CIGS/MVFR TO IFR VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BECOMING VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 10 KTS
LATE TONIGHT. WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS IN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. KDRT TERMINAL VFR
CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. MVFR CIGS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AFTER DAWN BECOMING VFR BY NOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS
BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KTS AFTER DAWN. WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS
IN STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012/

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS...EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS RICH
GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WHILE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES DISTURBANCES AT THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EAST
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ALSO...A PACIFIC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW THAT EXTENDS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SOUTHWESTWARD TO
THE BIG BEND WILL PUSH EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...KEEPING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND OUR AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

MAIN THREATS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES ARE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH AND
LARGE HAIL. EPISODES OF HEAVY RAINS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES
ARE POSSIBLE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY AVERAGING FROM ONE
QUARTER INCH TO HALF INCH ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 AND FROM
THREE QUARTER TO AN INCH EAST OF HIGHWAY 281...WITH LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEAST PART
OF THE HILL COUNTRY (LLANO...BURNET AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES).

AT THIS TIME THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH COVERS EDWARDS...KINNEY
AND VAL VERDE COUNTIES. HOWEVER...RESIDENTS AND VISITORS WEST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR ARE URGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING AS A LINEAR MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT
PER HI-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE TIME FRAME FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS TO DEVELOP IS BETWEEN 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO A HEAVY RAIN EVENT OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...CAN'T RULE OUT SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DURING THAT
PERIOD.

WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. NEXT CHANCES FOR
RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA AND OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES BY. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF NEXT
WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  83  61  82  63 /  60  40  10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  84  59  82  60 /  60  40  10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     71  84  62  82  61 /  50  30  20  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  82  57  80  61 /  60  30  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           73  85  64  83  66 /  20  20  30  -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  82  58  81  60 /  60  40  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  84  63  82  63 /  40  30  30  -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  84  61  82  61 /  60  40  20  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  86  63  82  62 /  40  40  20  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  84  63  82  63 /  40  30  20  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  85  64  82  64 /  40  30  30  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...02
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
821 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-150130-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
821 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS... HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.