Winter Storm Watch 3, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
226 PM MDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AND COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
WEEKEND. STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING DUST WILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH
STRONGER WINDS AND MORE BLOWING DUST AND SAND WILL OCCUR BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AREA WIDE. ADDITIONALLY...SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVER
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND AREA
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH A TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING
FOR SOME DESERT LOWLAND AREAS. RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW MAY ALSO OCCUR
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE DESERT LOWLANDS.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK TO BRING A LARGE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM INTO
THE REGION BY LATE SUNDAY. CURRENTLY...THE SYSTEM IS STILL
DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND WILL BEGIN
MOVING INLAND TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT. AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO THE WINDY CATEGORY
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE WIND SPEED INCREASE WILL BE DRIVEN
MAINLY BY DEEP MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK
THROUGH TOMORROW. SOME BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER DUST
PRONE AREAS OF THE DESERT LOWLANDS OF SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO WHERE WIND SPEEDS MAY EXCEED ADVISORY LIMITS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AGAIN TOMORROW WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.

BY SUNDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN ARIZONA BY THE AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS ALOFT FLOWING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY
MID DAY SUNDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY WINDY AND WILL
LIKELY REACH WARNING CRITERIA BY MID DAY TO MID AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
IF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
BE STRONGEST ALONG EASTERN SLOPES AND THROUGH GAPS AND EXPOSED
RIDGELINES OF AREA MOUNTAINS. A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY FOR THE EXPECTED STRONG WINDS.
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING DUST IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLY DROPPING TO LESS THAN A MILE IN DUST PRONE AREAS...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR WEST OF LAS CRUCES. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA AND DROPS TEMPERATURES SUNDAY EVENING.

ALONG WITH THE WINDS...THE SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA.
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS THERE WILL ENHANCE SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF THE GILA REGION AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. AS MUCH AS 11
INCHES OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. INITIALLY...SNOW LEVELS WILL
START OUT AT AROUND 8000 FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL QUICKLY
DROP TO 6000 FEET BY THE EVENING AND DOWN TO 4500 FEET BY MONDAY
MORNING FOR THE GILA REGION. A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
FOR THE LOWER GILA REGION FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY.

WHILE THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ARE NOT IN THE BEST POSITION FOR A
LOT OF SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM...PORTIONS OF THE SAC MOUNTAINS MAY
RECEIVE BETWEEN 3 TO 7 INCHES FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. REGARDING THE LOWLANDS TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH MAY
CAUSE SOME OF THE RAIN SHOWERS TO BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW OR BECOME
ALL SNOW. AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF LOWLAND
SNOW ARE ANTICIPATED. BEST CHANCE FOR LOWLAND SNOW WOULD BE THE
BOOTHEEL OF NEW MEXICO OR AREAS ADJACENT TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IF THE SITUATION CHANGES. AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ON MONDAY WITH
WIND SPEEDS IN THE WIND CATEGORY BUT MORE OUT OF THE WEST. DAY
TIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST
LOWLAND AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AND END BY LATE TUESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND DRIER...MORE STABLE AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL ON TUESDAY BUT WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON WEDNESDAY. WHEN
MOST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S FOR THE
LOWLANDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN WARMER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 17/00Z-18/00Z.
VFR THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY WITH A FEW PERIODS OF SCT-BKN MIDDLE
AND HIGH CLOUDS. VSBY P6SM. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT INTO
MIDDAY...THEN SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 20 TO 30 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE OR GREATER LOW LEVEL MECHANICAL TURBC
IS LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE AREA VERY WARM AND DRY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
BECOMING BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. MINIMUM HUMIDITY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY AND IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  THE STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
WILL CAUSE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY. A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO MOST LIKELY BRING HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. COLDER AND CONTINUED BREEZY TUESDAY AS THAT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 53  85  56  78  46 /   0   0   0   0  20
SIERRA BLANCA           47  83  51  75  41 /   0   0   0   0  10
LAS CRUCES              47  82  50  75  36 /   0   0   0  10  20
ALAMOGORDO              49  80  56  73  41 /   0   0   0  10  30
CLOUDCROFT              37  60  35  51  20 /   0   0   0  10  50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   47  79  48  64  35 /   0   0   0  20  40
SILVER CITY             40  68  39  55  31 /   0   0   0  50  60
DEMING                  42  79  44  66  37 /   0   0   0  20  30
LORDSBURG               41  78  46  65  37 /   0   0   0  30  50
WEST EL PASO METRO      53  83  56  76  44 /   0   0   0   0  20
DELL CITY               39  80  41  74  33 /   0   0   0   0  10
FORT HANCOCK            50  87  53  81  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
LOMA LINDA              47  78  48  68  37 /   0   0   0   0  20
FABENS                  51  85  53  78  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
SANTA TERESA            46  83  48  77  38 /   0   0   0   0  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          51  81  54  73  45 /   0   0   0  10  20
JORNADA RANGE           36  82  39  74  32 /   0   0   0  10  20
HATCH                   40  80  43  71  35 /   0   0   0  10  30
COLUMBUS                44  77  49  68  41 /   0   0   0  10  20
OROGRANDE               51  83  53  75  36 /   0   0   0   0  20
MAYHILL                 41  68  43  57  30 /   0   0   0  10  40
MESCALERO               35  67  37  59  23 /   0   0   0  10  50
TIMBERON                34  70  33  60  29 /   0   0   0  10  30
WINSTON                 40  72  43  49  30 /   0   0   0  50  80
HILLSBORO               47  75  45  59  31 /   0   0   0  30  60
SPACEPORT               41  80  42  69  30 /   0   0   0  10  30
LAKE ROBERTS            30  66  35  54  27 /   0   0   0  50  80
HURLEY                  40  72  39  56  30 /   0   0   0  40  60
CLIFF                   34  75  43  64  31 /   0   0   0  50  80
MULE CREEK              26  72  31  56  21 /   0   0   0  60  80
FAYWOOD                 40  73  42  58  32 /   0   0   0  30  60
ANIMAS                  42  79  49  65  31 /   0   0   0  30  50
HACHITA                 40  81  46  69  32 /   0   0   0  20  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          45  80  43  63  40 /   0   0   0  20  30
CLOVERDALE              41  74  41  57  32 /   0   0   0  30  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR NMZ110>113.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR NMZ112.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     NMZ401>417.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR NMZ401>409.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NMZ401-402.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ055-056.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR TXZ055-056.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     TXZ418>424.

&&

04/21

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