Special Marine Warning 35, NWS Eureka, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
344 PM PST FRI NOV 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE REGION. A STRONGER
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
BRINGS MORE RAINS NEXT TUESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MAJORITY OF ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN
PORTIONS OF CWA SO INCLUDED MENTION OF SCHC TSTMS ACROSS DEL NORTE
COUNTY OVERNIGHT. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH LATE SAT MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. THIS BREAK WILL BE BRIEF AS A STRONGER DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THIS STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MDT TO HVY RAINS ACROSS THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES EXPECTED OVER HUMBOLDT...DEL
NORTE AND TRINITY COUNTIES WITH 3-5 INCHES OVER MENDOCINO COUNTY.
ISSUED AN AREAL FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS STORM SAT NIGHT AS SATURATED
SOILS FROM RECENT RAINS MAKE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING
LIKELY. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS. STRONG SLY
WINDS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL WITH 925MB WINDS FCST
40-50KT. ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE NORTH COAST INTERIOR FOR
GUSTS TO 50-60 MPH. ADDITIONALLY...GUSTS TO 40-50 MPH EXPECTED
ALONG COASTAL HEADLANDS MAY WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY. INSTABILITY
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH SUN EVENING INTO MON. DECREASING SKY COVER
SUN NIGHT INTO MON COMBINED WITH RECENT RAINS MAKE FG LIKELY
ACROSS THE CWA MON MORNING. CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHCS INCREASE AGAIN
MON NIGHT AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...TUE THROUGH FRI...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE EARLY
TUES AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES OVER NW CALIFORNIA.
FRONTOGENESIS AND POT TEMP ADV FAVOR STRONGER FORCING IN OREGON BUT
STILL INDICATE A WEAK WARM FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT COLD PATTERN TO
IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH WED. A DEEP INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO RAINFALL AMOUNTING TO POSSIBLY A FEW INCHES
TUES AND WED AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH EASTWARD. THE NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR DRY WEATHER IS NEXT THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
AND THE REGION IS CUTOFF FROM THE DEEP INFLOW OF MOISTURE. KML
&&

.AVIATION...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AT KCEC, KACV AND
KUKI THIS AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND PRODUCING SHOWERS. THE
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS DECREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE WATERS TODAY.
THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THEREFORE A
GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS ZONE 470. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. THE SEAS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INCREASING THE
WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE AGAIN.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT RAINS COMBINED WITH MORE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT WILL MAKE URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING LIKELY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT
RISES EXPECTED ON ALL MAINSTEM RIVERS BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE NAVARRO RIVER AT NAVARRO...RUSSIAN RIVER AT HOPLAND AND
THE EEL RIVER AT FERNBRIDGE EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.
&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
CAZ001>004-076.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
ABOVE 2000 FEET FOR THE CAZ003.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON PZZ470.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PST SATURDAY PZZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST SUNDAY PZZ450-455-475.
&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
247 PM PST FRI NOV 30 2012

CAZ001-012300-
REDWOOD COAST-
247 PM PST FRI NOV 30 2012

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER DEL NORTE OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT A SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A FLOOD WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

ANOTHER MAJOR STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS LIKELY ALONG WITH
FLOODING IN SOME LOCATIONS ON SOME OF THE MAINSTEM RIVERS.
SPECIFIC FLOOD PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED AS THE FLOODING NEARS.
ADDITIONALLY STRONG WINDS ARRIVE SATURDAY EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 40
TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL HEADLANDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CAZ003-012300-
NORTH COAST INTERIOR-
247 PM PST FRI NOV 30 2012

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...
...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER DEL NORTE OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT A SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A FLOOD WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.
A HIGH WIND WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

ANOTHER MAJOR STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS LIKELY ALONG WITH
FLOODING IN SOME LOCATIONS ON SOME OF THE MAINSTEM RIVERS.
SPECIFIC FLOOD PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED AS THE FLOODING NEARS.
ADDITIONALLY STRONG WINDS ARRIVE SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY
WITH GUSTS TO 50 TO 60 MPH ACROSS EXPOSED TERRAIN ABOVE 2000
FEET.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CAZ002-004-076-012300-
MENDOCINO COAST-UPPER TRINITY RIVER-MENDOCINO INTERIOR-
247 PM PST FRI NOV 30 2012

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT A
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A FLOOD WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

ANOTHER MAJOR STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS LIKELY ALONG WITH
FLOODING IN SOME LOCATIONS ON SOME OF THE MAINSTEM RIVERS.
SPECIFIC FLOOD PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED AS THE FLOODING NEARS.
ADDITIONALLY STRONG WINDS ARRIVE SATURDAY EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 40
TO 50 MPH ALONG THE COASTAL HEADLANDS AND ACROSS EXPOSED TERRAIN
ABOVE 2000 FEET.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.