Coastal Flood Advisory 3, NWS Eureka, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
506 AM PST FRI JAN 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG
WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER POTENT STORM SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL SPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
ACROSS THE CWA. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE RISING TODAY HOWEVER LINGERING
TRAPPED AIR IN INTERIOR TRINITY COUNTY NEAR WEAVERVILLE AND
TRINITY CENTER MAY BE AN ISSUE ONCE AGAIN TODAY. WEAVERVILLE
CONTINUES TO SIT AT FREEZING TONIGHT AND WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
WARM TODAY. THIS MAY ALLOW PRECIP TO BEGIN AS SNOW AROUND MIDDAY
TODAY BEFORE WARM AIR FINALLY FILTERS INTO THE AREA. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE NAM MODEL SOUNDING AT WEAVERVILLE BUT WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TODAY. IF TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR BELOW
FREEZING TODAY IN THESE INLAND VALLEYS IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PRECIP
TODAY REMAINS AS SNOW...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN ACCUMULATION MUCH
GREATER THEN A FEW INCHES AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. INSTEAD
WITH QPF OVER 1 INCH POSSIBLY TODAY...OVER 10 INCHES OF SNOW COULD
ACCUMULATE. NEEDLESS TO SAY THIS FORECAST IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THE VALLEYS LEANING
TOWARD A WARMING TREND TODAY.

OTHERWISE SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 6000 FEET TODAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR THE TRINITY HORN WHERE SNOW LEVELS WILL
HOLD AROUND 4000 FEET UNTIL THIS EVENING. AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS
INLAND 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ABOVE 4000 FEET WITH
GREATER AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE TRINITY ALPS WHERE A
FOOT TO A FOOT AND A HALF OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. THUS A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE TRINITY HORN TODAY ABOVE 4000 FEET
TO 5500 FEET. OTHERWISE RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-4 INCHES
ACROSS THE CWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH THE GREATEST ACCUMULATION IN
THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN RANGES. RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS TONIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA USHERING IN MUCH
COOLER AIR IN BEHIND. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP ONCE AGAIN TO AROUND
3000 FEET SATURDAY AND DOWN TO 2000 TO 2500 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT. AS
THE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE CWA SATURDAY SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES...PRIMARILY IN HUMBOLDT...DEL
NORTE...AND WESTERN TRINITY COUNTIES ABOVE 3000 FEET IMPACTING ONLY THE
HIGHEST PASSES...SO TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. STILL...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS FROM EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A LULL IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES EARLY SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME MODELS INDICATE
THIS SYSTEM MAY BE JUST AS COLD...OR COLDER THEN THE SYSTEM ON
SATURDAY...AND LOW LEVEL COLD AIR MAY ONCE AGAIN BECOME TRAPPED IN
INTERIOR VALLEYS OF TRINITY COUNTY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES OR
WARNINGS MAY ONCE AGAIN BE NEEDED WITH QPF BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES OF
LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION FROM EACH OF
THESE SYSTEMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT
ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

FOR THE MID RANGE AND EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE MULTIPLE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION BUT NONE AS SIGNIFICANT AS OCCURRED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK WILL SHIFT NORTH INTO OREGON AND THUS POPS
ARE RESTRICTED TO CHANCE AND LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH TO SLIGHT IN
SOUTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. RPA

&&

.AVIATION...A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH PERIODS OF IFR THIS MORNING. PRECIP WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSIFY THIS MORNING AND MOVE S THROUGH THE DAY WITH IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS CWA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TODAY AS WELL WITH GUSTS TO 30-40 KTS OVER EXPOSED
AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY THIS
EVENING AS PRECIP DIMINISHES BUT IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...MDT TO FRESH SLY WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING BUT
WILL INCREASE TO GALES LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WATERS. A FEW GUSTS UP TO STORM FORCE
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH A BRIEF BREAK SAT BEFORE ANOTHER POTENT
STORM BRINGS INCREASED SLY WINDS SUN. NAM12 AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW
BL WINDS OF 50-60KT SO MAINTAINED STORM WATCH FOR THE NRN WATERS
SUN.

&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...TIDES THIS MORNING ARE RUNNING 0.50 FEET ABOVE
PREDICTED AS OF 4 AM. WITH HIGH TIDE EXPECTED AT 8.07 FT MLLW THIS
MORNING AROUND 845 AM...THIS WOULD RESULT IN A NET HIGH TIDE NEAR
8.6 FEET. NORMALLY TIDES NEED TO REACH 8.6 FEET FOR ANY COASTAL
FLOODING TO OCCUR IN THE KING SALMON AREA...AND WITH TYPICAL TIDAL
FLUCTUATIONS THIS DEPARTURE SHOULD DECREASE RUNNING UP TO HIGH
TIDE. THUS THE CURRENT RUNNING ADVISORY REMAINS QUESTIONABLE.
HOWEVER WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING...HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP THE ADVISORY IN PLACE. ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE
RESTRICTED TO BETWEEN 7 AND 10 AM. RPA

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING CAZ001.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY ABOVE
     3000 FEET FOR THE CAZ003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST
     SATURDAY ABOVE 3000 FEET FOR THE CAZ004.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON PZZ450-455.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PST THIS EVENING
     PZZ450-455.

     STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING PZZ470-475.

     GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM PST SATURDAY PZZ470.

     GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PST THIS EVENING
     PZZ475.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1002 AM PST FRI JAN 20 2012

CAZ001-211815-
REDWOOD COAST-
1002 AM PST FRI JAN 20 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 40 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ROCK AND MUD
SLIDES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG ROADWAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN FAVORED AREAS ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN ON
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CAZ003-211815-
NORTH COAST INTERIOR-
1002 AM PST FRI JAN 20 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST
SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET IS
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. SEE THE CURRENT WSWEKA PRODUCT FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 40 MPH ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND EXPOSED
HILLS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS A STORM
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ROCK AND MUD SLIDES ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG ROADWAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET IS
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. SEE THE CURRENT WSWEKA PRODUCT FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN FAVORED AREAS ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN ON
SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL FALL AT ELEVATIONS OVER 3000 FEET.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CAZ002-076-211815-
MENDOCINO COAST-MENDOCINO INTERIOR-
1002 AM PST FRI JAN 20 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ROCK AND MUD SLIDES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
ROADWAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CAZ004-211815-
UPPER TRINITY RIVER-
1002 AM PST FRI JAN 20 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET IS
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. SEE THE CURRENT WSWEKA PRODUCT FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET IS
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. SEE THE CURRENT WSWEKA PRODUCT FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW ABOVE 3000 FEET ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.