Areal Flood Advisory 7, NWS Eureka, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
450 AM PST THU NOV 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COAST TODAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND AS MORE STORMS IMPACT THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR SHOWS A STRONG SQUALL LINE APPROACHING THE
COAST. AS IT PASSES THROUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THE IMMEDIATE
COAST CAN EXPECT PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS
IS PART OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK
HEAVY. WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH WITH
4 TO 7 INCHES EXPECTED OVER THE FAVORED TERRAIN. ISSUED AN AREAL
FLOOD WATCH FOR SMALL STREAMS AND URBAN STREET FLOODING FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO END TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT SO ENDED THE FLOOD WATCH
14Z FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE
GFS IS SHOWING 925 MB WINDS 65 TO 70 KT. WITH THE HEAVY RAIN
EXPECT SOME OF THESE WILL MIX DOWN AND IMPACT THE HIGHEST PEAKS
ALONG THE COAST. THE WIND ADVISORY AND WARNING LOOK GOOD FOR THE
REDWOOD COAST AND THE NORTH COAST INTERIOR. GUSTS LOOK TO REMAIN
SLIGHTLY LOWER IN MENDOCINO COUNTY SO WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
SNOW LEVELS THROUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN HIGH...MAINLY ABOVE
5000 FT...SO NO WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS ARE NEEDED. THIS WILL ALSO
KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM AND STEADY.

FRIDAY DURING THE DAY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER THAN ON THURSDAY...MAINLY LESS THAN AN
INCH. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS SO ADDED
THEM TO THE GRIDS. THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO BE TOO HIGH FOR
MUCH OF A THREAT OF SMALL HAIL. SKIES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY
ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO REMAIN
ANCHORED OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...ONSHORE DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE TARGETED TOWARD NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. WITH ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 0.70 TO
0.90 RANGE...WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ONGOING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA IN HUMBOLDT...DEL NORTE...AND TRINITY COUNTIES. ON
SATURDAY A MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE COAST...WITH
MODELS NOW INDICATING IT WILL BE LIKELY CENTERED SOUTH OF THE CAPE
WITH ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS WILL EXPAND
RAINFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. BY
SATURDAY EVENING TOTAL RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
BE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN FAVORED
TERRAIN. THIS SHOULD HELP HOLD RIVERS AND STREAMS AT HIGH LEVELS
PRIMING THE REGION FOR FLOODING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE
LAST IN A SERIES OF SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AN
ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
APPROACHING 6 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD THIS SYSTEM
POSSIBLY IMPACTING AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH
THE GREATEST RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS. THUS MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL
RISE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ON THE
NAVARRO...EEL...AND RUSSIAN RIVERS. ADDITIONALLY SMALL STREAMS
WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH LOCATIONS OF PARTICULAR CONCERN BEING
SMALL STREAMS AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY AND ALONG THE MENDOCINO COAST.
THE GARCIA RIVER NEAR PT ARENA MAY ALSO RISE TO LEVELS THAT IMPACT
HIGHWAY 1. THUS A SECOND AREAL FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH THUNDER POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING AS COLD AIR ALOFT AND INSTABILITY INCREASES BEHIND THE
SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FINALLY BRINGING A
BREAK IN THE RAINFALL. HOWEVER ANY BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH
MODELS INDICATING A NEW SYSTEM BEGINNING TO MOVE TOWARD THE COAST
TUESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY IMPACTING AREAS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS AND VSBYS WILL FALL TO MVFR OR BELOW TODAY AS
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS. ISOLATED TSTMS WILL OCCUR EARLY
THIS MORNING AT CEC AND ACV AND MAY PRODUCE GUSTS TO 50 KT OR
MORE. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING...BUT IT WILL STILL
BE BLUSTERY THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK INSTABILITY TONIGHT MAY GENERATE
ISOLATED TSTMS TONIGHT...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE
WATERS.

&&

.MARINE...VAD WIND PROFILE WAS SHOWING 50-60KT IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER EARLY THIS MORNING. A SQUALL LINE WAS MOVING THROUGH THE
OUTER WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING AND PROBABLY GENERATING GUSTS OF
50 KT OR GREATER. BUOY 22 HAS BEEN GUSTING AROUND 50 KT SINCE 1AM
AND SHOULD PEAK IN ANOTHER HOUR TWO WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 60 KT
STILL A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. CONSENSUS AMONGST THE VARIOUS MODELS
IS FOR GRADIENT LEVEL WINDS TO DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER GALE GUST TO 40 KT ARE STILL EXPECTED.
WAVY FRONT SHOULD PUSH INLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH WINDS FALLING AFTER FROPA. GFS AND NAM12 WERE NOT
IN REAL GOOD AGREEMENT ON HOW FAST THE WINDS DECREASE SO BLENDED
THE TWO FIELDS. ALSO...MORE STORMS WILL KICK UP THE WINDS LATER ON
FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS DO NOT APPEAR QUITE AS STRONG AS
THE LAST TWO STORMS BUT CERTAINLY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE
GUST TO 35-40 KT. ENP HAS A SW COMPONENT DOMINATING THE WAVE
SPECTRUM TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN LARGE WESTERLY SWELL TAKING
OVER ON SUN. EXPECT ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS FOR SEAS AND/OR
ADVISORIES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FOR WINDS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...HEAVY RAIN INTO TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAMS FLOODING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN ABOUT A 12 TO 18 HOUR PERIOD.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR CAZ003.
WIND ADVISORY FOR CAZ001.
FLOOD WATCH FOR CAZ001-002-003-004-076.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...

STORM WARNING FOR PZZ470.
GALE WARNING FOR PZZ450-455-475.

&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
359 AM PST THU NOV 29 2012

CAZ003-301330-
NORTH COAST INTERIOR-
359 AM PST THU NOV 29 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.
A FLOOD WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.
A FRONT WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH ABUNDANT RAINFALL AND SHARP RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
FLOODING IN SOME LOCATIONS ON THE MAINSTEM RIVERS IS EXPECTED.
SPECIFIC FLOOD PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED AS THE FLOODING NEARS.
FOR FURTHER DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN EUREKA.

CAZ001-301330-
REDWOOD COAST-
359 AM PST THU NOV 29 2012

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A WIND ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.
A FLOOD WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.
A FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
TODAY ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH ABUNDANT RAINFALL AND SHARP RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
FLOODING IN SOME LOCATIONS ON THE MAINSTEM RIVERS IS EXPECTED.
SPECIFIC FLOOD PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED AS THE FLOODING NEARS.
FOR FURTHER DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN EUREKA.

CAZ004-076-301330-
UPPER TRINITY RIVER-MENDOCINO INTERIOR-
359 AM PST THU NOV 29 2012

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM PST THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FLOOD WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.
A FRONT WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH ABUNDANT RAINFALL AND SHARP RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
FLOODING IN SOME LOCATIONS ON THE MAINSTEM RIVERS IS EXPECTED.
SPECIFIC FLOOD PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED AS THE FLOODING NEARS.
FOR FURTHER DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN EUREKA.

CAZ002-301330-
MENDOCINO COAST-
359 AM PST THU NOV 29 2012

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM PST THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FLOOD WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.
A FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
TODAY ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH ABUNDANT RAINFALL AND SHARP RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
FLOODING IN SOME LOCATIONS ON THE MAINSTEM RIVERS IS EXPECTED.
SPECIFIC FLOOD PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED AS THE FLOODING NEARS.
FOR FURTHER DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN EUREKA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1152 AM PST THU NOV 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1118 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 N ROCKPORT            39.76N 123.82W
11/29/2012                   MENDOCINO          CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            6 FOOT DIAMETER TREE DOWN ACROSS HWY 1 JUST NORTH OF
            ROCKPORT IN MENDOCINO COUNTY.

1127 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 N ARCATA              40.91N 124.08W
11/29/2012                   HUMBOLDT           CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREE DOWN ACROSS RTE 200, NORTH BANK RD, NEAR
            AZALEA AVE.

1140 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 W FERNBRIDGE          40.62N 124.26W
11/29/2012  U0.00 INCH       HUMBOLDT           CA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            PORT KENYON RD BETWEEN MARKET AND CALIFORNIA CLOSED DUE
            TO FLOODING.

1140 AM     HEAVY RAIN       7 SW FERNBRIDGE         40.55N 124.29W
11/29/2012  U0.00 INCH       HUMBOLDT           CA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            WILLIAMS CREEK RD. 2 MILES SOUTH OF GRIZZLY BLUFF RD.
            CLOSED DUE TO SLIDE.

&&

RUEHL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1154 AM PST THU NOV 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0803 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 E BRICELAND           40.10N 123.84W
11/29/2012                   HUMBOLDT           CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ACROSS BRICELAND-THORN ROAD.

0909 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 E HYDESVILLE          40.55N 124.03W
11/29/2012                   HUMBOLDT           CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ACROSS HWY 36.

0951 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SW ARCATA             40.84N 124.12W
11/29/2012  U0.00 INCH       PZZ410             CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HWY 255 FLOODING NEAR MAD RIVER SLOUGH BRIDGE.

&&

RUEHL