Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
628 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2012

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

Short Term (Tonight through Friday)

Main focus is on the showers and thunderstorms that will move across
the forecast area this evening and overnight as a cold front dips
southward through the area.

At 20Z, the cold front was stretched across southeastern Nebraska --
near Lincoln -- with showers and thunderstorms developing along and
behind this boundary. This boundary will slowly track southeastward,
moving into extreme northeast Kansas/extreme northwest Missouri
between 22Z-00Z. By the time the boundary starts moving into the
area, the scattered activity will have congealed into a
well-defined, expansive squall line. This squall-line formation will
be supported by the steering flow being parallel to the boundary.
The parallel flow will result in a slow southward progression of the
boundary into the forecast area, which may result in showers and
thunderstorms training over extreme northeast Kansas and northwest
Missouri this evening. Training storms certainly could be capable of
dumping more than one-half inch of rain, with localized areas
possibly receiving upwards of one inch. By late this evening, the
northwesterly flow behind the front will increase, helping to give a
more southward progression to the thunderstorms. As this activity
spreads into east central Kansas to north central Missouri
overnight, latest short-range/hi-res models have trended toward this
squall line weakening with the loss of daytime heating. The main
area of uncertainty lies with whether or not the low level jet could
aid in some thunderstorm redevelopment along the front over east
central Kansas and west central Missouri overnight, or if the
activity will simply continue to fizzle out with very isolated
precipitation left by Thursday morning. Either way, most of the
precipitation should be south and east of the area by Thursday
afternoon. A few strong storms are possible with this activity,
however the threat for severe weather is quite low. MUCAPE may be
upwards of 2000-3000 J/kg this evening over the far northwest
corner, quickly dropping to 1000-2000 J/kg overnight. With high
freezing heights of around 15k feet, it will be difficult to get
more than small hail with the strongest storms. As the winds start
steering more to out of northwest behind the front, cannot rule out
the potential for a few bow-like features to develop within the
squall line, which could produce some isolated damaging wind gusts.
Although localized heavy rainfall is possible, especially across
northwest Missouri, not anticipating any flooding issues due to the
lack of recent rainfall.

Surface high pressure will settle in over the Northern and Central
Plains on Thursday behind the frontal passage, keeping conditions
dry through the remainder of the week. As this high shifts east of the
area by the end of the week, winds will shift the northwest on
Thursday to out of the southeast by Friday evening. Temperatures will be
near seasonal normals for Thursday with afternoon highs in the
low/mid 80s. However, the upward trend in temperatures will return
by Friday as highs reach into the mid/upper 80s.

ACH

Medium Range (Saturday through Wednesday)...

For the start of this period models are signaling an MCS will likely
form somewhere over the Northern High Plains...possibly as far south
as WY or the NE Panhandle...Friday evening. With a northwesterly
steering flow the MCS would likely track southeast. Question is
will it make it into northern MO. There is enough to support to
warrant chance pops for Saturday. Otherwise, hot air will bubble
back in, especially for Sunday and forecast temperatures may even be
too cool. Should the aforementioned MCS affect northern MO Saturday
then max temperatures could be significantly impacted.

For the rest of the forecast period the overall theme of medium
range models during this period is to build/sharpen an upper ridge
from the Rockies into the Plains while an upper trough deepens
through the northeastern U.S. This overall pattern allows for hot
air to build/strengthen under the upper ridge with pronounced
northwesterly flow from the Canadian Plains through the Mid MO and
Mid MS Valleys. However, what is in question is how deep will the
northeastern trough become and how far east will the effects of the
upper ridge be felt as there will most likely be a backdoor cold
front that will surge south-southwest from the Upper MS Valley
Sunday night/Monday. The latest medium range models have been
consistent in allowing a large area of high pressure from Canada to
surge south for early next week. But the degree of cooling is
greatly in question. Appears the GFS is way too cold with its h8
temperatures with the ECMWF more believable in capturing the amount
of cooling normally associated with backdoor cold fronts this time
of year. As a personal aside I hope the GFS is correct as it
forecasts highs in the mid 70s over western MO by Tuesday. Previous
experience says this type of cooling doesn't happen in these
situations. As such, favor trending with cooler temperatures vs the
previous forecast. In addition, dry weather will likely continue for
the start of next week.

MJ

&&

.AVIATION...

Slow moving frontal boundary and associated convection, currently
stretching from north-central Iowa into north-central Kansas, making
a gradual southeastward progression this evening. Rough timing
brings this activity into KSTJ around 03-04z and into KMCI/KMKC
closer to 06z. Upper support tends to remain further north away from
the advancing front with time so thinking the extent of post front
activity may be limited to a few hours. Short term guidance then
suggests MVFR cigs for a few hours behind the convection before
mixing out after sunrise.

Deroche

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

WFO EAX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
654 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-211215-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
654 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS AND EXTREME
NORTHWEST MISSOURI WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND THEN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...MAINLY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
A ST JOSEPH TO BETHANY LINE. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS TEND TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME
AREAS.

THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN BY LATER THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...HOWEVER THE LOW LEVEL JET MAY HELP
TO REINFORCE THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. THESE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE...BUT A FEW STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT...TRACKING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE MISSOURI/IOWA
BORDER BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON
THE LOCATION OF THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME...BETTER
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY LOOK TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF
A ST. JOSEPH TO MACON LINE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THE ACTIVITY
EXTENDING SOUTH TOWARD THE MISSOURI RIVER. AT THIS TIME...THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.

UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION BY THIS WEEKEND.
FOR SATURDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MAY REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. BY SUNDAY...AFTERNOON
HIGHS MAY SOAR INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S...WITH HEAT INDICES
REACHING INTO THE LOWER 100S AROUND THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WHILE SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...PRECIPITATION REPORTS
ARE ALWAYS APPRECIATED.

DEROCHE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
848 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012

MOZ001-210215-
ATCHISON MO-
848 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ATCHISON COUNTY UNTIL 915 PM
CDT...

AT 847 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ROCKPORT...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TARKIO...
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  TARKIO AND FAIRFAX.

THIS WILL IMPACT

 I-29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 101 AND 113.

LAT...LON 4048 9520 4048 9519 4029 9518 4027 9518
      4027 9556 4029 9555 4031 9560 4042 9564
      4054 9520
TIME...MOT...LOC 0148Z 258DEG 30KT 4038 9549

HAWBLITZEL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
946 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012

KSZ025-102-MOZ011-012-020-210315-
ANDREW MO-ATCHISON KS-BUCHANAN MO-DONIPHAN KS-HOLT MO-
946 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ANDREW...
SOUTHEASTERN HOLT...WESTERN BUCHANAN...DONIPHAN AND NORTHERN ATCHISON
COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

AT 943 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HIGHLAND TO DENTON
TO LANCASTER...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  TROY...WATHENA...ELWOOD...ST. JOSEPH...COUNTRY CLUB VILLA...
  RUSHVILLE...AMAZONIA...FANNING...DONIPHAN AND ST. JOSEPH AIRPORT.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...

  I-29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 54 AND 61.
  I-229 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 3 AND 14.

LAT...LON 3966 9540 3966 9534 3973 9534 3975 9532
      3994 9528 3993 9482 3976 9481 3958 9495
      3958 9547
TIME...MOT...LOC 0246Z 271DEG 38KT 3991 9520 3975 9519
          3960 9532

HAWBLITZEL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1005 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012

MOZ002>004-210330-
GENTRY MO-NODAWAY MO-WORTH MO-
1005 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN WORTH...NODAWAY AND
NORTHWESTERN GENTRY COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

AT 1004 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF
MARYVILLE TO MARYVILLE TO MAITLAND...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  STANBERRY...RAVENWOOD...GRANT CITY...ARKOE...PARNELL...BARNARD...
  CONCEPTION JUNCTION...CLYDE...GUILFORD...CONCEPTION...WORTH...
  GENTRY...DENVER AND ALLENDALE.

LAT...LON 4049 9424 4031 9439 4017 9462 4017 9506
      4023 9506 4031 9498 4049 9483
TIME...MOT...LOC 0305Z 270DEG 29KT 4041 9477 4031 9486
          4022 9499

HAWBLITZEL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1016 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012

KSZ102-MOZ012-013-020-021-210345-
ANDREW MO-BUCHANAN MO-CLINTON MO-DE KALB MO-DONIPHAN KS-
1016 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN ANDREW...WESTERN
DEKALB...NORTHWESTERN CLINTON...BUCHANAN AND SOUTHEASTERN DONIPHAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM CDT...

AT 1010 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM AMAZONIA TO WATHENA
TO RUSHVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  ST JOSEPH...SAVANNAH...COUNTRY CLUB VILLA...GOWER...AGENCY...
  CLARKSDALE...DE KALB...FAUCETT...COSBY...HELENA AND EASTON.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...

  I-29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 34 AND 65.
  I-229 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 14.

LAT...LON 3976 9498 4003 9499 4005 9461 4004 9461
      4004 9453 3976 9451 3956 9462 3959 9505
      3962 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 0315Z 274DEG 33KT 3993 9487 3976 9486
          3957 9499

HAWBLITZEL

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