Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
307 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2012

.DISCUSSION...

Short Range (Today through Sunday)...

Convective eddy, left over from early morning storms across
Kansas, has shifted into the northeast corner of Kansas and adjacent
areas of northwest Missouri. The cold pool associated with this MCV,
noted at 700mb, is strongly associated with the current development
of storms, and is coincident with an area of MLCAPE along the Iowa
border in the range of 2000 to 3000 J/KG. Farther south across
Missouri, conditions -while hot and humid- are a little more
stabilized at this time as air craft soundings from KMCI and upper
air observation from the Springfield WFO indicate there is a bit of
EML in place, thus development on the south side of the circulation
has struggled to do more than produce a few reports of sprinkles
thus far.

Activity is expected to continue to go up across northern Missouri
through the remainder of the afternoon hours. Early evening
departure of the circulation to the northeast, and loss of diurnal
heating should carry activity across the Iowa border region of
northern Missouri off to the northeast, however areas previously
stabilized during the early afternoon hours will begin to
destabilize thanks to the heat of the day, and movement of the
circulation as a cold front presses into the region from the
northwest. So, expectation are that another line of storms will
likely develop in areas east of Interstate-35 during the mid to late
afternoon hours. Indications of this are noted on visible satellite
imagery as a fine line of CU is seen developing along I-35.

For the current activity, near the Iowa border, and for any future
activity this evening...shear values across the region are on the
marginal side, but instability and precipitable water values of 1.7"
would indicate that any storms that do go up will put down
torrential rain and lots of cloud-to-ground lightning. Specific
severe threats look highest for damaging winds and large hail, though
the potential for a tornado can not be ruled out at this time.

For Sunday, the departing MCV and cold front will leave behind a bit
of a surface boundary, but models are struggling to determine if the
boundary hangs up within our forecast area, or just to our south and
east. Confidence on accurately placing the boundary is low, so have
kept chance POPs broad brushed across much of the forecast area for
the afternoon hours as the heating the day will likely make obvious
where any left over boundaries are residing as storms develop.

Otherwise, temperatures for Sunday and Monday, expect afternoon
highs to remain rather hot and humid for Sunday with even hotter
conditions expected Monday as the thermal ridge leans over across
the Central Plains into the far northwest corner of Missouri. 850mb
temperatures will be climbing into the high teens Sunday with low to
mid 20s centigrade possible Monday, which translate into afternoon
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s for Sunday, and through the 90s
Monday with the northwest corner of Missouri possibly looking at
high in the upper 90s which will place afternoon heat index values
near advisory criteria in the northwest corner Monday.

Cutter

Medium Range (Tuesday-Saturday)...

Confidence remains above normal through much of the medium range
guidance thanks to above average agreement in model solutions.
Broad synoptic pattern favors a broad trough across the northwestern
portions of the CONUS with mid-level riding over the southeastern
CONUS.  Between these features a return of broad southwesterly low
level flow will support the return of above normal temperatures for
much of next week.

In general, few changes made to the medium range forecast as
confidence remains high.  Continued to nudge temperatures a degree
or two above populated guidance. Appears that a quick moving
shortwave will cross the Upper Midwest towards Thursday and will try
to push a weak front into northern MO Wednesday night and Thursday.
A lot of questions whether or not this front can push southward into
the hot and humid airmass given unfavorable forcing.  Will continue
to hold highest pops in the northern CWA through Friday.

Dux

&&

.AVIATION...

For the 12Z TAFs, VFR conditions will prevail through the morning
ours at the terminals with mid level clouds expected at MCI and MKC
and sct clouds around 4kft at STJ. Showers and thunderstorms across
southeastern Nebraska and central Kansas will diminish as they move
towards the area this morning. Thunderstorms are expected to
redevelop late this morning across southeastern Nebraska and
northern Kansas and move southeastward into the VC of the terminals
by early afternoon. The main cluster of thunderstorms however are
not expected to impact the terminals until mid-afternoon through the
early evening hours. Vsbys may be reduced to 5SM in thunderstorms
however cigs will remain VFR around 6kft. Winds will be out of the
ssw between 5-10kts today. Tonight storms will move south of the
terminals will bkn cigs remaining around 6kft.

73

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

WFO EAX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1243 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-171100-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
1243 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

 THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
 NORTHWEST MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY EXPANDING SOUTH AND
 EAST ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG INSTABILITY AND
 ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL FAVOR BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST
 WINDS. THESE STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY ORGANIZE INTO A LINE WITH A
 GREATER THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY
 WITH THESE STORMS...ALTHOUGH VERY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD LIMIT
 FLOODING POTENTIAL. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
 HOURS...BECOMING FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
 THE OUTLOOK AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

 A STATIONARY FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI AND WILL
 PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE
 LIFTING ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY EVENING.
 ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
 BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.

 UNSEASONABLE HOT TEMPERATURES WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MONDAY
 WITH AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S EXPECTED.
 DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
 LOWER 100S ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSOURI BETWEEN 2 AND 6 PM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

BOOKBINDER

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