Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
634 AM CDT Thu May 3 2012

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

Yet another overnight period with active weather within the CWA
boundaries. Latest MCS continues to roll across southern
Iowa/Nebraska early this morning along edge of elevated mixed layer.
MUCAPE values between 1000-1500 J/KG will continue to support a
marginal severe threat into the northwestern corner of MO. However
storms will enter into a more stable environment as they move across
southern IA with the severe threat also diminishing.

Much like Wednesday morning, outflow boundary will settle southward
into northern Missouri with LLJ interaction with this boundary and
and general isentropic lift inducing scattered convection further
south by daybreak and perhaps lingering through the morning hours of
Thursday. Generally sub-severe storms are expected, but strong
850:700 theta-e advection will lead to increasing elevated
instability into the morning hours and a few of these lingering
storms may be capable of ramping up to svr limits with large hail
the main threat.

Otherwise, the main concern for later this afternoon and overnight
period deals with convective redevelopment and potential for severe
weather into the overnight hours.  Once ongoing convection clears by
early afternoon, a large pool of instability will again build along
and south of the stalled frontal boundary over south central Nebraska
and north central Iowa. Latest NSSL-WRF along with NAM/ECMWF support
fairly widespread redevelopment along this boundary and remnant
convective outflows from morning MCS activity across central and
eastern Iowa. Further southwest along the boundary into Nebraska and
Kansas, convective coverage remains more uncertain given increasing
low-level capping, but extreme instability. If storms are able to
fire along this boundary back into central Kansas, very large hail
could be possible. Turning back northeast, ample instability but
lower shear values will favor multicellular clusters to form across
Iowa and perhaps northern MO by this evening, with cold pool
generation forcing convection into one or more forward propagating
MCS. Mid-level steering flow favors a south to southeast trajectory
for any cluster that forms. Feel that strong EML will favor higher
storm coverage over the eastern half of the CWA, with primary threats
of large hail and damaging winds.

Whatever MCS forms will work southward through Missouri by Friday
morning leaving the majority of the CWA convection free though the
day. Some lingering convection will be possible over the Ozarks and
central Missouri along edge of EML and lingering outflow boundary.
Otherwise temperatures will climb well into the 80s for the western
half of the CWA. Readings in the East and Northeast could be hampered
by convective debris.

Friday night-Saturday: Hot and humid conditions will be the
prevailing theme.  Scattered convection may once again form over the
Northern Plains, but this time feel it should stay mostly north of
the CWA. By Saturday, models continue to favor readings in the upper
80s to lower 90s with oppressive humidity levels. Heat index values
may climb into the upper 90s in some locations. Despite already reaching
90 degrees earlier this year, those temperatures were accompanied by
relatively low humidity levels. By Saturday, 90s with such high
moisture values may lead to a higher threat of heat illness and could
necessitate an impact based heat advisory.

Dux

Medium Range (Sunday through Wednesday)...

Decent model agreement early in the extended with a broad
positively-tilted upper trough encompassing much of the western US
with a weak surface cyclone over the Central Plains at 12Z Sun. NAM
is the outlier solution at this time with a stronger Northern Plains
upper shortwave which results in a more progressive and southern
position of the surface low. Prefer to stay closer to the relatively
stable GFS solution which keeps the surface low and attendant cold
front north of the forecast area Sunday morning, with frontal
passage occurring across the CWA late Sunday afternoon and evening.
Airmass ahead of the front will be very unstable so thunderstorms
appear to be a good bet on Sunday especially if this slower solution
verifies and the cap is able to erode. Any severe threat looks to be
driven by the instability alone as the northerly track of the upper
wave will keep the better wind fields well north of the forecast
area.

Model spread beyond Sunday becomes increasingly significant with the
GFS deamplifying the upper ridge to the east and bringing
quasi-zonal flow into the Plains, while the ECMWF keeps the upper
pattern more amplified with dry and cooler northwesterly upper flow
into the region. Prefer to stick closer to the GFS as it has been
the better performer at long ranges this spring, so maintained
near-average temps and low precip chances through the middle of next
week.

Hawblitzel

&&

.AVIATION...

For the 12Z tafs: trailing edge of elevated convection will graze the
Kansas City terminals through 14Z before lifting off to the
northeast. Thunderstorms will prevail in St. Joseph for the next hour
before becoming more widely scattered in nature. Will need to keep an
eye on stratus filtering southeast behind convective outflow. This MVFR
stratus may drift into the KC terminals for a few hours before
beginning to mix out by mid- morning.

Gusty south winds will prevail through the afternoon hours.
Convection may redevelop over northern KS, southern NE, and western
IA late this afternoon or evening and begin to drift southward. Areal
coverage of storms remains highly uncertain thus lowering confidence
to only include VCTS mention into the very early morning hours of
Friday.

Dux

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

WFO EAX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
557 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-041100-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
557 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING IN AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. A FEW STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL THROUGH
MID-MORNING.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN PORTIONS OF
IOWA...NEBRASKA...AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY.
THESE STORMS WILL BEGIN TO CLUSTER TOGETHER AND MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
DIMINISHED A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL.

UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION BY FRIDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING NEAR 90 DEGREES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HEAT
INDEX VALUES NEAR 95 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER...IT IS
TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

DUX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
345 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

MOZ002-030930-
NODAWAY MO-
345 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN NODAWAY COUNTY UNTIL 430
AM CDT...

AT 341 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BURLINGTON JUNCTION...OR 12 MILES NORTHWEST
OF MARYVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  HOPKINS...RAVENWOOD...PICKERING AND PARNELL.

LAT...LON 4047 9463 4047 9462 4034 9461 4037 9506
      4057 9506 4057 9463
TIME...MOT...LOC 0845Z 271DEG 25KT 4047 9500

HAWBLITZEL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
508 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

KSZ025-102-031045-
ATCHISON KS-DONIPHAN KS-
508 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN DONIPHAN AND NORTHERN
ATCHISON COUNTIES UNTIL 545 AM CDT...

AT 503 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HIAWATHA TO
HORTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  HIGHLAND...ATCHISON...TROY...LANCASTER...DENTON...HURON...LEONA...
  SEVERANCE...BENDENA AND FANNING.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3966 9534 3988 9534 3991 9515 3988 9514
      3987 9513 3986 9507 3958 9509 3957 9511
      3954 9511 3958 9549 3966 9550
TIME...MOT...LOC 1008Z 251DEG 28KT 3983 9546 3964 9543

HAWBLITZEL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
537 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

KSZ102-MOZ011-012-020-031100-
ANDREW MO-BUCHANAN MO-DONIPHAN KS-HOLT MO-
537 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN ANDREW...SOUTHEASTERN
HOLT...NORTHERN BUCHANAN AND CENTRAL DONIPHAN COUNTIES UNTIL 600 AM
CDT...

AT 533 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
OREGON TO 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TROY...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  WATHENA...ELWOOD...ST. JOSEPH...COUNTRY CLUB VILLA...SAVANNAH...
  AMAZONIA AND ST. JOSEPH AIRPORT.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...

  I-29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 43 AND 70.
  I-229 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 14.

LAT...LON 4000 9469 3969 9468 3971 9517 3999 9515
TIME...MOT...LOC 1037Z 270DEG 27KT 3991 9506 3972 9511

HAWBLITZEL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
615 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

MOZ012>014-020>022-031200-
ANDREW MO-BUCHANAN MO-CALDWELL MO-CLINTON MO-DAVIESS MO-DE KALB MO-
615 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ANDREW...DEKALB...
SOUTHWESTERN DAVIESS...NORTHERN CLINTON...WESTERN CALDWELL AND
NORTHEASTERN BUCHANAN COUNTIES UNTIL 700 AM CDT...

AT 612 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
UNION STAR TO 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF AGENCY...AND MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  MAYSVILLE...CAMERON...UNION STAR...CLARKSDALE...STEWARTSVILLE...
  OSBORN...KINGSTON...POLO...AMITY...TURNEY...FAIRPORT...WEATHERBY...
  SANTA ROSA...WINSTON...KIDDER AND ALTAMONT.

THIS WILL IMPACT

 I-35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 40 AND 75.

LAT...LON 3953 9403 3952 9414 3961 9472 4004 9476
      4004 9432 4003 9422 4004 9422 4005 9402
TIME...MOT...LOC 1116Z 271DEG 35KT 3995 9463 3968 9461

HAWBLITZEL

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