Severe Thunderstorm Warning 24, NWS Kansas City, MO

156 
WWUS53 KEAX 151841
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
141 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

MOC083-101-159-151850-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0024.000000T0000Z-120415T1845Z/
HENRY MO-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS MO-
141 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN PETTIS COUNTY IN
CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON AND EASTERN HENRY
COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL EXPIRE AT 145 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3821 9394 3871 9364 3859 9327 3850 9336
      3851 9351 3833 9351 3821 9353
TIME...MOT...LOC 1840Z 212DEG 77KT 3873 9334

$$

MELL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1242 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

Main focus for the short term continues to be on the threat for
thunderstorms today. Overnight a line of strong to severe
thunderstorms formed over central Kansas, slowing tracking eastward
ahead of the cold front. The northern edge of thunderstorms entered
into extreme northeast KS/northwest MO early this morning. This line
will continue to progress eastward into eastern Kansas and western
Missouri this morning, moving into central and northeastern Missouri
this afternoon before exiting east of the forecast area by this
evening. The threat for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop
will exist today, primarily across areas of central and eastern
Missouri, as models project upwards of 1000-1500J/kg of MU CAPE and
60-70kts of 0-6km bulk shear being present. All modes of severe
weather will be possible -- damaging winds, large hail, and the
potential for isolated tornadoes. All of this thunderstorm activity
will be ahead of an advancing cold front that will be moving eastward
toward the KS/MO border early this afternoon and push just east of
the forecast area this evening. This frontal passage will influence
not only the thunderstorm development today but also the threat for
increasingly gusty winds. Despite the passage of the cold front this
afternoon, winds will only shift from southeast to southwest.
However, with a 45-50kt low level jet and 80-90+kt mid level jet
sweeping into the region, deep mixing is expected this afternoon.
This will result in sustained winds of 25-30mph and gusts upwards of
40 to 45 mph. With these anticipated conditions, a wind advisory will
be in effect from 15Z-01Z. With the strong southerly flow today,
temperatures will reach into the lower to middle 70s.

The upper level low associated with this system will lift northward
into the Northern Plains today, with the upper trough weakening over
the Great Lakes region on Monday. More of a zonal flow will set up
over the Central Plains for the first half of the work week,
resulting in a quieter weather pattern for much of the upcoming
week. Temperatures will cool into the lower to middle 60s for Monday
as winds shift to the northwest. Models show a shortwave passing
just north of the forecast area Monday night into Tuesday morning
which could result in a few showers developing into northern
Missouri during the overnight hours early Tuesday morning. Tuesday
into Wednesday, a surface low over the Northern Rockies will track
eastward into the Northern Plains. This approaching low will lead to
winds shifting more to the south which will help to bump
temperatures back up into the 70s by Wednesday. This surface low,
which is associated with a shortwave, will be the source for the
next potential for showers and thunderstorms primarily across
northern Missouri Wednesday/Wednesday night. A cold front stretching
from this surface low looks to track southward through the region
late Wednesday night, however models struggle in determining just
how far south this front will move. The boundary may stall out
somewhere over central or southern Missouri on Thursday and stretch
toward a second surface low that will form over western Oklahoma.
This boundary looks to be the focus for more widespread showers and
thunderstorms Thursday afternoon through Friday morning before a
shortwave moving into the Central Plains helps to kick the system
east of the area. The passing of this system will result in
temperatures for Friday dropping below normal into the upper
50s/lower 60s. High pressure will build in behind this system,
leading to dry conditions for the start of the weekend and
temperatures staying slightly below normal for Saturday.

ACH

&&

.AVIATION...

For 18Z TAFs...Rapid influx of ac deck around 12k ft has overspread
the terminals and will linger into at least mid afternoon. Have
backed off on strength of the winds due to this cloud cover plus we
have effectively mixed through to around 850mb as evidenced by the
nearly homogeneous wind speeds around 40kts.

Have added MVFR cigs for late tonight as wrap around low clouds now
over western KS spread eastward. Should return to VFR conditions
shortly after sunrise. Tight gradient remains around the surface low
so winds should stay gusty as they veer to the west then northwest.
Winds should drop off noticeably by late morning as the pressure
gradient relaxes.

MJ

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-
     054.

KS...WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

&&

WFO EAX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
515 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-161015-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
515 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO EXTREME
NORTHWEST MISSOURI THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD
THROUGH THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. AS
THIS LINE MOVES INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI...THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL. THIS
LINE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES THROUGH WESTERN
MISSOURI...HOWEVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LINE PUSHES INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS AFTERNOON
REDEVELOPMENT...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES. THIS THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY
THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES EAST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

ADDITIONALLY...VERY STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES
OVER THE REGION. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 40 TO 45 MPH FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35.

ACH