Alert archive / Kansas / River Flood Warnings in 2012

River Flood Warning 12, NWS Kansas City, MO

March 22, 2012Linn County, Kansas

NWS Kansas City, MO issued this river flood warning at Mar 22, 2012, 2:37 AM CDT for Linn County, Kansas. It was in force for 49 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Mar 22, 2012, 2:37 AM CDT (07:37 UTC)
Expired
Mar 24, 2012, 4:02 AM CDT
In force
49 hr
Issued by
NWS Kansas City, MO
Flood severity
Minor

County Linn County, KS

The radar

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Marais Des Cygnes River at La Cygne (LCGK1). The gauge peaked at 25.94 ft at Mar 23, 2012, 8:00 AM CDT.

actionminormoderate20253003/2203/2303/2403/25
Action stage
20 ft
Minor stage
25 ft
Moderate stage
30 ft
Major stage
36 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 06915800, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

061 
WGUS43 KEAX 220738
FLWEAX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED          
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
237 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012
  

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL MO HAS ISSUED A 
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN KANSAS... 

  MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER AT LA CYGNE AFFECTING LINN COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD 
FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY 
CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL 
CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY.  THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
AND STREAM INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC/.

&&

KSC107-230737-
/O.NEW.KEAX.FL.W.0012.120322T0737Z-120323T0839Z/
/LCGK1.1.ER.120322T0726Z.120322T0755Z.120322T0839Z.NO/
237 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL MO HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER AT LA CYGNE.
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
* AT  2:15 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 24.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 25.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE TO NEAR 25.2 FEET BY EARLY THIS 
  MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATER THIS 
  MORNING.
* AT 25.0 FEET...LOW LYING FARMLAND AND OTHER RURAL LAND FLOODS.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER
  LA CYGNE        25   24.9   THU 02 AM   25.2 AFTER MIDNIGHT THIS 
MORNING

$$
7 follow-up statements
239 
WGUS83 KEAX 220739
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
239 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012
   

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MISSOURI...
 
  BIG CREEK AT BLAIRSTOWN AFFECTING CASS...HENRY AND JOHNSON 
  COUNTIES.

  LAMINE RIVER NEAR OTTERVILLE AFFECTING COOPER COUNTY.

  MONITEAU CREEK NEAR FAYETTE AFFECTING HOWARD COUNTY.

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MISSOURI...
 
  PETITE SALINE CREEK NEAR BOONVILLE AFFECTING COOPER COUNTY.

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MISSOURI...KANSAS... 

  BLACKWATER RIVER AT VALLEY CITY AFFECTING JOHNSON AND PETTIS 
  COUNTIES.
  BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK AFFECTING COOPER AND SALINE 
  COUNTIES.
  MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER AT LA CYGNE AFFECTING LINN COUNTY.
  SOUTH GRAND RIVER AT URICH AFFECTING BATES...CASS AND HENRY 
  COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD 
FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY 
CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL 
CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY.  THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
AND STREAM INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC/.

&&

MOC037-083-101-220809-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-120323T0815Z/
/BLRM7.1.ER.120320T0658Z.120321T1400Z.120322T0450Z.UU/
239 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE BIG CREEK AT BLAIRSTOWN.
* AT  2:00 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 19.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET.
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 11:50 PM WEDNESDAY.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 15.8 FEET BY FRIDAY 
  MORNING.


&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

BIG CREEK
  BLAIRSTOWN      20   19.6   THU 02 AM   19.1 THIS MORNING

$$

MOC101-159-230738-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-120323T1336Z/
/VLYM7.2.ER.120320T1051Z.120321T2115Z.120322T1336Z.NO/
239 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACKWATER RIVER AT VALLEY CITY.
* UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.
* AT  2:00 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 23.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  THIS MORNING.
* AT 22.0 FEET...WOODLANDS AND FARM FIELDS ALONG THE RIVER BEGIN TO 
  FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

BLACKWATER RIVER
  VALLEY CITY     22   23.8   THU 02 AM   22.4 THIS MORNING

$$

MOC053-195-230738-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-120326T0530Z/
/BLVM7.1.ER.120321T0636Z.120324T0000Z.120325T0530Z.NO/
239 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK.
* UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
* AT  1:45 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 27.0 FEET BY 
  FRIDAY EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY SUNDAY 
  MORNING.
* AT 24.0 FEET...CROPLAND AND PASTURES ALONG THE RIVER FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

BLACKWATER RIVER
  BLUE LICK       24   26.4   THU 02 AM   27.0 FRIDAY EVENING

$$

MOC053-220809-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-120323T0636Z/
/OTTM7.1.ER.120321T1600Z.120321T2215Z.120322T0322Z.NO/
239 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE LAMINE RIVER NEAR OTTERVILLE.
* AT  2:15 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.2 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 10:22 PM WEDNESDAY.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 6.3 FEET BY FRIDAY 
  MORNING.


&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

LAMINE RIVER
  OTTERVILLE      15   12.2   THU 02 AM   10.8 THIS MORNING

$$

KSC107-230738-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-120323T0839Z/
/LCGK1.1.ER.120322T0726Z.120322T0755Z.120322T0839Z.NO/
239 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER AT LA CYGNE.
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
* AT  2:15 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 24.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 25.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT THIS MORNING 
  AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 25.2 FEET. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY THIS MORNING.
* AT 25.0 FEET...LOW LYING FARMLAND AND OTHER RURAL LAND FLOODS.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER
  LA CYGNE        25   24.9   THU 02 AM   25.2 AFTER MIDNIGHT THIS 
MORNING

$$

MOC089-220809-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-120323T0410Z/
/FYTM7.1.ER.120321T1146Z.120321T2015Z.120322T0408Z.UU/
239 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE MONITEAU CREEK NEAR FAYETTE.
* AT  2:30 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 11:08 PM WEDNESDAY.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 7.6 FEET BY FRIDAY 
  MORNING.


&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

MONITEAU CREEK
  FAYETTE         16   12.8   THU 02 AM   12.8 EARLY THIS MORNING

$$

MOC053-230738-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-120323T2206Z/
/BONM7.1.ER.120321T1206Z.120322T0515Z.120322T2206Z.UU/
239 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PETITE SALINE CREEK NEAR BOONVILLE.
* UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT  1:30 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.3 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
* AT 16.0 FEET...LOW LYING WOODLANDS AND FIELDS NEAR THE CREEK FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

PETITE SALINE CREEK
  BOONVILLE       16   18.3   THU 01 AM   18.2 THIS MORNING

$$

MOC013-037-083-230738-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-120324T0840Z/
/URHM7.2.ER.000000T0000Z.120321T1239Z.120323T0840Z.UU/
239 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SOUTH GRAND RIVER AT URICH.
* UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
* AT  6:45 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  FRIDAY MORNING.
* AT 24.0 FEET...FLOODING OCCURS ACROSS LOCATIONS WITHIN 0.5 TO 1.5 
  MILES OF THE RIVER. AREAS AFFECTED INCLUDE LOW LYING PASTURES ALONG
  WITH CROPLAND AND SECONDARY ROADS.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

SOUTH GRAND RIVER
  URICH           24   26.9   WED 07 PM   26.0 THIS MORNING

$$
470 
WGUS83 KEAX 221334
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
834 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012
   

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN KANSAS...
MISSOURI...
 
  MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER AT LA CYGNE AFFECTING LINN COUNTY.

  MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER NEAR TRADING POST AFFECTING LINN AND BATES 
  COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD 
FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY 
CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL 
CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY.  THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
AND STREAM INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC/.

&&

KSC107-231334-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-120324T0730Z/
/LCGK1.1.ER.120322T0800Z.120322T1800Z.120323T0730Z.NO/
834 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER AT LA CYGNE.
* UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
* AT  8:15 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.5 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 25.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 25.7 FEET BY THIS
  AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY FRIDAY 
  MORNING.
* AT 25.0 FEET...LOW LYING FARMLAND AND OTHER RURAL LAND FLOODS.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER
  LA CYGNE        25   25.5   THU 08 AM   25.7 THIS AFTERNOON

$$

KSC107-MOC013-231333-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-120323T2230Z/
/TPOK1.1.ER.120322T1304Z.120322T1800Z.120322T2230Z.UU/
834 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER NEAR TRADING POST.
* UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT  7:45 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 27.0 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 27.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 27.3 FEET BY
  EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE
  THIS AFTERNOON.
* AT 27.0 FEET...FLOODING OF LOW-LYING FARMLAND OCCURS.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER
  TRADING POST    27   27.0   THU 08 AM   27.3 EARLY AFTERNOON

$$

SAW
143 
WGUS83 KEAX 230055
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
755 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2012
   
...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MISSOURI AND KANSAS...
 
  BLACKWATER RIVER AT VALLEY CITY AFFECTING JOHNSON AND PETTIS 
  COUNTIES.
  MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER NEAR TRADING POST AFFECTING LINN AND BATES
  COUNTIES.
  PETITE SALINE CREEK NEAR BOONVILLE AFFECTING COOPER COUNTY.

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MISSOURI AND KANSAS...
 
  BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK AFFECTING COOPER AND SALINE 
  COUNTIES.
  GRAND RIVER NEAR SUMNER AFFECTING LIVINGSTON...CARROLL...CHARITON 
  AND LINN COUNTIES.
  MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER AT LA CYGNE AFFECTING LINN COUNTY KANSAS.
  SOUTH GRAND RIVER AT URICH AFFECTING BATES...CASS AND HENRY 
  COUNTIES.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH THIS EVENING WITH LOCALLY 
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE FORECAST STAGES AND CRESTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD 
FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY 
CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL 
CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY.  THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
AND STREAM INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC/.

&&

MOC101-159-230125-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-120323T1936Z/
/VLYM7.2.ER.120320T1051Z.120321T2115Z.120322T1807Z.NO/
755 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE BLACKWATER RIVER AT VALLEY CITY.
* AT  7:00 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 20.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22.0 FEET.
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 1 PM THURSDAY.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 17.2 FEET BY SATURDAY
  MORNING.


&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

BLACKWATER RIVER
  VALLEY CITY     22   20.1   THU 07 PM   18.4 EARLY FRIDAY MORNING

$$

MOC053-195-240054-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-120327T0730Z/
/BLVM7.1.ER.120321T0636Z.120323T1800Z.120326T0730Z.NO/
755 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK.
* UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
* AT  6:45 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 27.0 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 27.1 FEET BY 
  EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY
  MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 24.0 FEET...CROPLAND AND PASTURES ALONG THE RIVER FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

BLACKWATER RIVER
  BLUE LICK       24   27.0   THU 07 PM   27.1 EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON

$$

MOC033-041-115-117-240054-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0014.120323T0600Z-120324T0649Z/
/SNZM7.1.ER.120323T0600Z.120323T0600Z.120323T0649Z.NO/
755 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GRAND RIVER NEAR SUMNER.
* FROM LATE TONIGHT TO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
* AT  6:45 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.0 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 26.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 26.1 FEET BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
* AT 26.0 FEET...RURAL LAND ADJACENT TO THE RIVER IS FLOODED.
* AT 23.0 FEET...BOTTOMLAND 1 TO 2 MILES SOUTH OF THE GAGE BEGINS TO 
  FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

GRAND RIVER
  SUMNER          26   25.0   THU 07 PM   26.1 EARLY FRIDAY MORNING

$$

KSC107-240054-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-120324T0730Z/
/LCGK1.1.ER.120322T0800Z.120322T1730Z.120323T0730Z.NO/
755 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER AT LA CYGNE.
* UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
* AT  7:15 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 25.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
* AT 25.0 FEET...LOW LYING FARMLAND AND OTHER RURAL LAND FLOODS.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER
  LA CYGNE        25   25.7   THU 07 PM   25.2 EARLY FRIDAY MORNING

$$

KSC107-MOC013-230125-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-120323T2230Z/
/TPOK1.1.ER.120322T1326Z.120322T1330Z.120322T1337Z.UU/
755 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER NEAR TRADING POST.
* AT  6:45 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 27.0 FEET.
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT  8:30 AM THURSDAY.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 22.4 FEET BY SATURDAY
  MORNING.


&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER
  TRADING POST    27   26.8   THU 07 PM   26.2 EARLY FRIDAY MORNING

$$

MOC053-230125-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-120323T1654Z/
/BONM7.1.ER.120321T1206Z.120322T0515Z.120322T1827Z.UU/
755 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE PETITE SALINE CREEK NEAR BOONVILLE.
* AT  7:30 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 1:30 PM THURSDAY.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 10.6 FEET BY SATURDAY
  MORNING.


&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

PETITE SALINE CREEK
  BOONVILLE       16   14.6   THU 07 PM   13.4 EARLY FRIDAY MORNING

$$

MOC013-037-083-240054-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-120325T1200Z/
/URHM7.2.ER.000000T0000Z.120321T1239Z.120324T1200Z.UU/
755 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SOUTH GRAND RIVER AT URICH.
* UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
* AT 3 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  SATURDAY MORNING.
* AT 24.0 FEET...FLOODING OCCURS ACROSS LOCATIONS WITHIN 0.5 TO 1.5 
  MILES OF THE RIVER. AREAS AFFECTED INCLUDE LOW LYING PASTURES ALONG
  WITH CROPLAND AND SECONDARY ROADS.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

SOUTH GRAND RIVER
  URICH           24   26.1   THU 03 PM   25.8 EARLY FRIDAY MORNING

$$
276 
WGUS83 KEAX 230927
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
427 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012
   

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MISSOURI...
 
  GRAND RIVER NEAR SUMNER AFFECTING LIVINGSTON...CARROLL...CHARITON 
  AND LINN COUNTIES.

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MISSOURI...KANSAS...
 
  BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK AFFECTING COOPER AND SALINE 
  COUNTIES.

  MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER AT LA CYGNE AFFECTING LINN COUNTY.

  SOUTH GRAND RIVER AT URICH AFFECTING BATES...CASS AND HENRY 
  COUNTIES.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD 
FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY 
CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL 
CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY.  THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
AND STREAM INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC/.

&&

MOC053-195-240927-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-120327T1108Z/
/BLVM7.1.ER.120321T0636Z.120324T0000Z.120326T1108Z.NO/
427 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK.
* UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.
* AT  3:45 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 27.2 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 27.2 FEET BY THIS
  EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 24.0 FEET...CROPLAND AND PASTURES ALONG THE RIVER FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

BLACKWATER RIVER
  BLUE LICK       24   27.2   FRI 04 AM   27.2 THIS EVENING

$$

MOC033-041-115-117-230957-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-120324T0649Z/
/SNZM7.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
427 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE GRAND RIVER NEAR SUMNER.
* AT  3:45 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 24.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 26.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 25.1 FEET.  THE 
  RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 22.5 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING.
* AT 23.0 FEET...BOTTOMLAND 1 TO 2 MILES SOUTH OF THE GAGE BEGINS TO 
  FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

GRAND RIVER
  SUMNER          26   24.6   FRI 04 AM   24.5 THIS MORNING

$$

KSC107-240926-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-120324T1830Z/
/LCGK1.1.ER.120322T0800Z.120323T0815Z.120323T1830Z.NO/
427 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER AT LA CYGNE.
* UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT  3:15 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 25.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  THIS AFTERNOON.
* AT 25.0 FEET...LOW LYING FARMLAND AND OTHER RURAL LAND FLOODS.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER
  LA CYGNE        25   25.8   FRI 03 AM   25.7 THIS MORNING

$$

MOC013-037-083-240926-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-120325T1600Z/
/URHM7.2.ER.000000T0000Z.120321T1239Z.120324T1600Z.UU/
427 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SOUTH GRAND RIVER AT URICH.
* UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
* AT  2:41 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
* AT 24.0 FEET...FLOODING OCCURS ACROSS LOCATIONS WITHIN 0.5 TO 1.5 
  MILES OF THE RIVER. AREAS AFFECTED INCLUDE LOW LYING PASTURES ALONG
  WITH CROPLAND AND SECONDARY ROADS.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

SOUTH GRAND RIVER
  URICH           24   26.1   THU 03 PM   25.4 THIS MORNING

$$
206 
WGUS83 KEAX 231506
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
1006 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012
   

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MISSOURI...KANSAS...
 
  BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK AFFECTING COOPER AND SALINE 
  COUNTIES.

  MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER AT LA CYGNE AFFECTING LINN COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD 
FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY 
CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL 
CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY.  THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
AND STREAM INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC/.

&&

MOC053-195-241506-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-120327T0500Z/
/BLVM7.1.ER.120321T0636Z.120323T1445Z.120326T0500Z.NO/
1006 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK.
* UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
* AT  9:45 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 27.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 24.0 FEET...CROPLAND AND PASTURES ALONG THE RIVER FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

BLACKWATER RIVER
  BLUE LICK       24   27.4   FRI 10 AM   27.3 THIS AFTERNOON

$$

KSC107-241505-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-120325T1312Z/
/LCGK1.1.ER.120322T0800Z.120323T1230Z.120324T1312Z.NO/
1006 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER AT LA CYGNE.
* UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
* AT  9:15 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 25.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  SATURDAY MORNING.
* AT 25.0 FEET...LOW LYING FARMLAND AND OTHER RURAL LAND FLOODS.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER
  LA CYGNE        25   25.8   FRI 09 AM   25.7 THIS AFTERNOON

$$

ACH
338 
WGUS83 KEAX 240207
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
907 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012
   
...A RIVER FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
 
  BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK AFFECTING COOPER AND SALINE 
  COUNTIES.

  MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER AT LA CYGNE AFFECTING LINN COUNTY KANSAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD 
FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY 
CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL 
CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY.  THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
AND STREAM INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC/.

&&

MOC053-195-250207-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-120328T0536Z/
/BLVM7.1.ER.120321T0636Z.120324T1200Z.120327T0536Z.NO/
907 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK.
* UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
* AT  8:45 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 28.5 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 28.8 FEET BY 
  SATURDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY 
  TUESDAY MORNING.
* AT 24.0 FEET...CROPLAND AND PASTURES ALONG THE RIVER FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

BLACKWATER RIVER
  BLUE LICK       24   28.5   FRI 09 PM   28.8 SATURDAY MORNING

$$

KSC107-250206-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-120325T0600Z/
/LCGK1.1.ER.120322T0800Z.120323T1230Z.120324T0600Z.NO/
907 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER AT LA CYGNE.
* UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
* AT  8:15 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.3 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 25.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
* AT 25.0 FEET...LOW LYING FARMLAND AND OTHER RURAL LAND FLOODS.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER
  LA CYGNE        25   25.3   FRI 08 PM   25.0 EARLY SATURDAY MORNING

$$
437 
WGUS83 KEAX 240902
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
402 AM CDT SAT MAR 24 2012
   

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
KANSAS...
 
  MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER AT LA CYGNE AFFECTING LINN COUNTY.

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MISSOURI...
 
  LAMINE RIVER NEAR OTTERVILLE AFFECTING COOPER COUNTY.

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MISSOURI... 

  BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK AFFECTING COOPER AND SALINE 
  COUNTIES.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD 
FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY 
CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL 
CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY.  THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
AND STREAM INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC/.

&&

MOC053-195-250902-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-120328T0536Z/
/BLVM7.2.ER.120321T0636Z.120324T0830Z.120327T0536Z.NO/
402 AM CDT SAT MAR 24 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK.
* UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
* AT  3:45 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 29.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
* AT 29.0 FEET...LIVESTOCK IN PASTURES ALONG THE RIVER MAY BE 
  ENDANGERED. EXTENSIVE DAMAGE ALSO OCCURS TO CROPLAND AND PASTURE.
* AT 24.0 FEET...CROPLAND AND PASTURES ALONG THE RIVER FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

BLACKWATER RIVER
  BLUE LICK       24   29.4   SAT 04 AM   28.8 THIS MORNING

$$

MOC053-250901-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-120325T1203Z/
/OTTM7.1.ER.120324T0404Z.120324T0815Z.120324T1203Z.NO/
402 AM CDT SAT MAR 24 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE LAMINE RIVER NEAR OTTERVILLE.
* UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
* AT  3:15 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  THIS MORNING.
* AT 15.0 FEET...LOW LYING WOODLANDS AND FIELDS ALONG THE RIVER 
  FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

LAMINE RIVER
  OTTERVILLE      15   15.6   SAT 03 AM   15.0 THIS MORNING

$$

KSC107-240932-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-120325T0600Z/
/LCGK1.1.ER.120322T0800Z.120323T1230Z.120324T0700Z.NO/
402 AM CDT SAT MAR 24 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER AT LA CYGNE.
* AT  3:15 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 24.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 25.0 FEET.
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT  2:00 AM SATURDAY.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 18.7 FEET BY SUNDAY 
  MORNING.
* AT 25.0 FEET...LOW LYING FARMLAND AND OTHER RURAL LAND FLOODS.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER
  LA CYGNE        25   24.9   SAT 03 AM   24.3 THIS MORNING

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Mar 22, 12:11 AM CDT, 2 hours 26 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 22, 12:11 AM CDT, 2 hours 26 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1211 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
/319 PM CDT Wed Mar 21 2012/
Latest band of rain continues to rotate northward through the CWA
this afternoon as closed low over Oklahoma begins to wobble
northeast. WV imagery indicates another expansive dry slot beginning
to surge in behind this elongated band of precipitation and south of
an inverted trough stretching from Manhattan to Springfield. Rainfall
rates, absent of any convection, have ranged between .10-.25 in/hr
which is precluding much in the way of additional flooding.

Through the afternoon and tonight: Initial wave of precipitation
lifting into the northern CWA this afternoon. Additional shower
activity on the leading edge of dry slot will continue to lift
northward through the area this evening, however much of the upper
dynamics will shift heavier precipitation in central Kansas and into
the mid-Mississippi River valley. The end result will be scattered
shower development. Edge of dry slot and surface inverted trough will
rotate into northern Missouri by midnight. There could be a brief
period of drizzle directly in behind the sfc trough, otherwise expect
skies to lift somewhat as we move into daybreak. If skies clear
significantly, areas of fog may also develop.

Given substantial lull in precipitation this morning along, meager
rainfall rates, lower forecast QPF this evening, and the fact that
many river points are already in flood will go ahead and cancel flood
watch early as areal impacts should be minimal.

Thursday: Upper level low is expected to slowly wobble towards
lower Missouri. In fact, much of Thursday may end up dry in the
majority of the CWA. However, by the afternoon hours forecast
soundings suggest steepening lapse rates as upper level cold core
approaches from the southwest. Should we see sunshine tomorrow, it's
possible to have CAPE values approach 500-800 J/KG. The approaching
upper low should provide enough spark for low topped convection in
the afternoon and evening. Hail would be the primary threat in
convection as the freezing level falls around 7k ft AGL.

Thursday night-Friday: Models differ on the track and speed of the
upper low, however scattered convection could percolate all night and
redevelop again over central Missouri Friday afternoon. Once again,
hail would be the primary threat, but will need to keep a closer eye
on surface features.

Medium Range (Saturday through Wednesday)...

Closed mid level vortex will finally depart the region early
Saturday, with heights rapidly building ahead of a strengthening
shortwave ridge across the western Plains. The transitional speed
from cyclonic to neutral to anticyclonic flow aloft is quite
impressive, and by Saturday afternoon this process has already
completed.

Generally stayed the course with a rapid warm up through the weekend
into Monday, with Monday and Monday night expected to be the warmest
of the days as strengthening southerly winds deliver mid to upper
teens air aloft at the base of the EML. This would perhaps suggest
that low-mid 80s would be the rule analogous to last week, but
abundant boundary layer/ground moisture will likely still be present
with light winds in the earlier periods. Still, upper 70s to around
80 degrees will put us again back close to record territory.

A weak northern stream trough and associated front will draw toward
the area Tuesday. Much like this past Monday, I'm concerned that
areas ahead of this boundary could warm up well into the 70s if not
around 80 once again and have trended in this direction. This would
also tend to increase thunderstorm potential with the arrival of the
boundary. Veered warm sector flow and the positive tilt nature to
the fast moving upper trough may mitigate the severe potential, but
a seasonably moist airmass and strong westerlies aloft warrant at
least a closer watch on this system over the coming days.

Bookbinder

&&

.AVIATION...

For the 06z TAFs: one last band of showers arcing from central
through northwest MO will affect KSTJ for several more hours before
shifting north. Southern edge of rain may nick KMCI in the first
hour of the forecast. The occluded front has lifted north through
all 3 terminals and winds will now be predominantly from the
southeast for most of the forecast. Surface heating and tightening
gradient should result in mid teen winds by mid morning.

Some concern for dense fog forming overnight as UPS fog program
hints at it for all 3 terminals. However, there is quite a bit of
cloud cover still rotating around the closed system over OK that may
not allow sufficient clearing to cool the boundary layer. More
likely outcome is for MVFR fog/stratus to form. This should break up
by mid morning yielding way to VFR conditions for rest of forecast.

Next concern is potential for late afternoon/evening convection. As
the cold core system heads towards west central MO expect to see
scattered afternoon convection form in the eastern/northern quads of
the system with activity rotating westward. Have sufficient
confidence that feel justified to go with a PROB30 group vs just
carrying a CB reference.

MJ

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

WFO EAX
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 21, 6:59 PM CDT, 7 hours 38 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
659 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-221115-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
659 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AREAS OF FOG MAY FORM OVER PARTS OF EXTREME EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI TOWARDS SUNRISE WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING AS
LOW AS 1 TO 2 MILES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY MID-THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM ST. JOSEPH TO BOONVILLE.
VERY COLD AIR ALOFT COMBINING WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES
OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THE PRIMARY THREAT IN ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL
BE HAIL WITH A SECONDARY THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MJ

The office that day

Everything else NWS Kansas City, MO issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 22, 6:01 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningEAXLinn14 hr
Mar 22, 4:35 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEAXAtchison, Leavenworth, Wyandotte40 min
Mar 22, 5:16 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEAXAtchison, Doniphan44 min

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Kansas, 2012Every river flood warning in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.