Alert archive / Missouri / River Flood Warnings in 2012
River Flood Warning 11, NWS Kansas City, MO
NWS Kansas City, MO issued this river flood warning at Mar 21, 2012, 6:42 AM CDT for Howard County, Missouri. It took effect at Mar 21, 2012, 7:28 AM CDT. It was in force for 19 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 21, 2012, 6:42 AM CDT (11:42 UTC)
- In effect from
- Mar 21, 2012, 7:28 AM CDT
- Expired
- Mar 22, 2012, 2:39 AM CDT
- In force
- 19 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Kansas City, MO
- Flood severity
- Minor
County Howard County, MO
The radar
The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 141 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 11:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The river
Written for the forecast point Moniteau Creek near Fayette (FYTM7). The gauge peaked at 19.19 ft at Mar 21, 2012, 3:00 PM CDT.
- Action stage
- 11 ft
- Minor stage
- 16 ft
- Moderate stage
- 21 ft
- Major stage
- 25 ft
This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests
Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 06909500, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
018
WGUS43 KEAX 211142
FLWEAX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
642 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL MO HAS ISSUED A
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN MISSOURI...
MONITEAU CREEK NEAR FAYETTE AFFECTING HOWARD COUNTY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD
FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY
CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL
CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY. THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
AND STREAM INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC/.
&&
MOC089-221142-
/O.NEW.KEAX.FL.W.0011.120321T1228Z-120322T1713Z/
/FYTM7.1.ER.120321T1228Z.120321T1500Z.120321T1713Z.UU/
642 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL MO HAS ISSUED A
* FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE MONITEAU CREEK NEAR FAYETTE.
* UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 6:30 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.7 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO
RISE TO NEAR 17.0 FEET BY LATE THIS MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL
BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
* AT 16.0 FEET...LOW-LYING FIELDS ALONG MONITEAU CREEK FLOOD.
&&
LATEST
LOCATION FS STAGE DAY/TIME FORECAST
MONITEAU CREEK
FAYETTE 16 15.7 WED 06 AM 17.0 LATE THIS MORNING
$$4 follow-up statements
792
WGUS83 KEAX 211419
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
919 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
KANSAS...MISSOURI...
MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER AT OSAWATOMIE AFFECTING MIAMI COUNTY.
MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER AT LA CYGNE AFFECTING LINN COUNTY.
MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER NEAR TRADING POST AFFECTING LINN AND BATES
COUNTIES.
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
MISSOURI...
BLACKWATER RIVER AT VALLEY CITY AFFECTING JOHNSON AND PETTIS
COUNTIES.
BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK AFFECTING COOPER AND SALINE
COUNTIES.
LAMINE RIVER NEAR OTTERVILLE AFFECTING COOPER COUNTY.
MONITEAU CREEK NEAR FAYETTE AFFECTING HOWARD COUNTY.
WAKENDA CREEK AT CARROLLTON AFFECTING CARROLL COUNTY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD
FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY
CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL
CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY. THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
AND STREAM INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC/.
&&
MOC101-159-221419-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-120324T0456Z/
/VLYM7.2.ER.120320T1051Z.120322T0600Z.120323T0456Z.NO/
919 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE BLACKWATER RIVER AT VALLEY CITY.
* UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING.
* AT 8:00 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.3 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 26.2 FEET BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE
THURSDAY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
* AT 25.0 FEET...COUNTY HIGHWAY E NEAR VALLEY CITY AND HIGHWAY 23
NEAR THE PERRY STATE WILDLIFE AREA ARE UNDER WATER.
* AT 22.0 FEET...WOODLANDS AND FARM FIELDS ALONG THE RIVER BEGIN TO
FLOOD.
&&
LATEST
LOCATION FS STAGE DAY/TIME FORECAST
BLACKWATER RIVER
VALLEY CITY 22 25.3 WED 08 AM 26.2 EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
$$
MOC053-195-221418-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-120326T2116Z/
/BLVM7.1.ER.120321T0636Z.120324T0000Z.120325T2116Z.NO/
919 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK.
* UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 8:45 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.7 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 28.2 FEET BY
FRIDAY EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
* AT 24.0 FEET...CROPLAND AND PASTURES ALONG THE RIVER FLOOD.
&&
LATEST
LOCATION FS STAGE DAY/TIME FORECAST
BLACKWATER RIVER
BLUE LICK 24 25.7 WED 09 AM 28.2 FRIDAY EVENING
$$
MOC053-221418-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-120323T1230Z/
/OTTM7.1.ER.120321T1831Z.120322T0000Z.120322T1230Z.NO/
919 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE LAMINE RIVER NEAR OTTERVILLE.
* UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.
* AT 8:15 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.8 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO
RISE TO NEAR 17.1 FEET BY THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW
FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY MORNING.
* AT 15.0 FEET...LOW LYING WOODLANDS AND FIELDS ALONG THE RIVER
FLOOD.
&&
LATEST
LOCATION FS STAGE DAY/TIME FORECAST
LAMINE RIVER
OTTERVILLE 15 12.8 WED 08 AM 17.1 THIS EVENING
$$
KSC121-211449-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-120323T1500Z/
/OSMK1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
919 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
THE MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER AT OSAWATOMIE.
* AT 7:30 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 22.9 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 28.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE WITH A VALUE OF
25.3 FEET EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
LATEST
LOCATION FS STAGE DAY/TIME FORECAST
MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER
OSAWATOMIE 28 22.9 WED 07 AM 25.3 EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON
$$
KSC107-211449-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-120323T0112Z/
/LCGK1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
919 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
THE MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER AT LA CYGNE.
* AT 8:15 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 23.7 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 25.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE WITH A VALUE OF
24.3 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
LATEST
LOCATION FS STAGE DAY/TIME FORECAST
MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER
LA CYGNE 25 23.7 WED 08 AM 24.3 THIS AFTERNOON
$$
KSC107-MOC013-211449-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-120323T0036Z/
/TPOK1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
919 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
THE MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER NEAR TRADING POST.
* AT 5:45 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 24.5 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 27.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE WITH A VALUE OF
24.7 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
LATEST
LOCATION FS STAGE DAY/TIME FORECAST
MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER
TRADING POST 27 24.5 WED 06 AM 24.7 THIS AFTERNOON
$$
MOC089-221418-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-120323T0931Z/
/FYTM7.1.ER.120321T1146Z.120321T2000Z.120322T0931Z.UU/
919 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE MONITEAU CREEK NEAR FAYETTE.
* UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
* AT 8:30 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.2 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 19.5 FEET BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THURSDAY
MORNING.
* AT 16.0 FEET...LOW-LYING FIELDS ALONG MONITEAU CREEK FLOOD.
&&
LATEST
LOCATION FS STAGE DAY/TIME FORECAST
MONITEAU CREEK
FAYETTE 16 17.2 WED 08 AM 19.5 LATE THIS AFTERNOON
$$
MOC033-221418-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0010.120322T0141Z-120324T0805Z/
/CAXM7.1.ER.120322T0141Z.120322T1800Z.120323T0805Z.UU/
919 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE WAKENDA CREEK AT CARROLLTON.
* FROM THIS EVENING TO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
* AT 9:00 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.7 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO
RISE TO NEAR 18.5 FEET BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL
FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
* AT 16.0 FEET...FLOODING OF LOW-LYING UNDEVELOPED AREAS ALONG THE
CREEK BEGINS.
&&
LATEST
LOCATION FS STAGE DAY/TIME FORECAST
WAKENDA CREEK
CARROLLTON 16 13.7 WED 09 AM 18.5 EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON
$$724
WGUS83 KEAX 211933
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
233 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
MISSOURI...
BLACKWATER RIVER AT VALLEY CITY AFFECTING JOHNSON AND PETTIS
COUNTIES.
BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK AFFECTING COOPER AND SALINE
COUNTIES.
LAMINE RIVER NEAR OTTERVILLE AFFECTING COOPER COUNTY.
MONITEAU CREEK NEAR FAYETTE AFFECTING HOWARD COUNTY.
PETITE SALINE CREEK NEAR BOONVILLE AFFECTING COOPER COUNTY.
WAKENDA CREEK AT CARROLLTON AFFECTING CARROLL COUNTY.
BIG CREEK AT BLAIRSTOWN AFFECTING CASS...HENRY AND JOHNSON
COUNTIES.
SOUTH GRAND RIVER AT URICH AFFECTING BATES...CASS AND HENRY
COUNTIES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD
FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY
CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL
CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY. THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
AND STREAM INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC/.
&&
MOC037-083-101-221933-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-120324T1042Z/
/BLRM7.2.ER.120320T0658Z.120322T0600Z.120323T1042Z.UU/
233 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE BIG CREEK AT BLAIRSTOWN.
* UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
* AT 2:00 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 21.9 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 23.6 FEET BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE
FRIDAY MORNING.
* AT 23.0 FEET...FLOODING OCCURS AT THE WEST APPROACH TO THE N
HIGHWAY BRIDGE LOCATED 0.2 MILES WEST OF BLAIRSTOWN. FLOODING ALSO
OCCURS ACROSS B HIGHWAY NEAR BIG CREEK WHICH IS SEVERAL MILES
NORTHWEST OF BLAIRSTOWN.
* AT 20.0 FEET...THE WEST BANK OF THE CREEK BEGINS TO FLOOD.
&&
LATEST
LOCATION FS STAGE DAY/TIME FORECAST
BIG CREEK
BLAIRSTOWN 20 21.9 WED 02 PM 23.6 EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
$$
MOC101-159-221932-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-120324T0000Z/
/VLYM7.2.ER.120320T1051Z.120321T1815Z.120323T0000Z.NO/
233 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE BLACKWATER RIVER AT VALLEY CITY.
* UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING.
* AT 2:00 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.8 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
THURSDAY EVENING.
* AT 25.0 FEET...COUNTY HIGHWAY E NEAR VALLEY CITY AND HIGHWAY 23
NEAR THE PERRY STATE WILDLIFE AREA ARE UNDER WATER.
* AT 22.0 FEET...WOODLANDS AND FARM FIELDS ALONG THE RIVER BEGIN TO
FLOOD.
&&
LATEST
LOCATION FS STAGE DAY/TIME FORECAST
BLACKWATER RIVER
VALLEY CITY 22 25.8 WED 02 PM 24.9 THIS EVENING
$$
MOC053-195-221932-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-120326T1200Z/
/BLVM7.1.ER.120321T0636Z.120323T1800Z.120325T1200Z.NO/
233 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK.
* UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 1:45 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.2 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 27.2 FEET BY
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE
SUNDAY MORNING.
* AT 24.0 FEET...CROPLAND AND PASTURES ALONG THE RIVER FLOOD.
&&
LATEST
LOCATION FS STAGE DAY/TIME FORECAST
BLACKWATER RIVER
BLUE LICK 24 26.2 WED 02 PM 27.2 EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
$$
MOC053-221932-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-120323T1241Z/
/OTTM7.1.ER.120321T1600Z.120322T0000Z.120322T1241Z.NO/
233 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE LAMINE RIVER NEAR OTTERVILLE.
* UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.
* AT 2:15 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.5 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 17.0 FEET BY THIS
EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THURSDAY MORNING.
* AT 15.0 FEET...LOW LYING WOODLANDS AND FIELDS ALONG THE RIVER
FLOOD.
&&
LATEST
LOCATION FS STAGE DAY/TIME FORECAST
LAMINE RIVER
OTTERVILLE 15 16.5 WED 02 PM 17.0 THIS EVENING
$$
MOC089-221932-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-120323T0540Z/
/FYTM7.1.ER.120321T1146Z.120321T1830Z.120322T0540Z.UU/
233 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE MONITEAU CREEK NEAR FAYETTE.
* UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
* AT 1:30 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 19.0 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
* AT 16.0 FEET...LOW-LYING FIELDS ALONG MONITEAU CREEK FLOOD.
&&
LATEST
LOCATION FS STAGE DAY/TIME FORECAST
MONITEAU CREEK
FAYETTE 16 19.0 WED 01 PM 19.0 LATE THIS AFTERNOON
$$
MOC053-221932-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-120323T1841Z/
/BONM7.1.ER.120321T1206Z.120322T0000Z.120322T1841Z.UU/
233 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE PETITE SALINE CREEK NEAR BOONVILLE.
* UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 1:30 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.7 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 18.0 FEET BY THIS
EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
* AT 16.0 FEET...LOW LYING WOODLANDS AND FIELDS NEAR THE CREEK FLOOD.
&&
LATEST
LOCATION FS STAGE DAY/TIME FORECAST
PETITE SALINE CREEK
BOONVILLE 16 17.7 WED 01 PM 18.0 THIS EVENING
$$
MOC013-037-083-221932-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-120324T1827Z/
/URHM7.2.ER.000000T0000Z.120321T1239Z.120323T1827Z.UU/
233 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE SOUTH GRAND RIVER AT URICH.
* UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 2:02 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 27.3 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 24.0 FEET...FLOODING OCCURS ACROSS LOCATIONS WITHIN 0.5 TO 1.5
MILES OF THE RIVER. AREAS AFFECTED INCLUDE LOW LYING PASTURES ALONG
WITH CROPLAND AND SECONDARY ROADS.
&&
LATEST
LOCATION FS STAGE DAY/TIME FORECAST
SOUTH GRAND RIVER
URICH 24 27.3 WED 02 PM 27.2 THIS EVENING
$$
MOC033-221932-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0010.120322T0456Z-120323T0600Z/
/CAXM7.1.ER.120322T0456Z.120322T0600Z.120322T0600Z.UU/
233 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE WAKENDA CREEK AT CARROLLTON.
* FROM THIS EVENING TO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
* AT 2:00 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.7 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO RISE
TO NEAR 16.1 FEET BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL
BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
* AT 16.0 FEET...FLOODING OF LOW-LYING UNDEVELOPED AREAS ALONG THE
CREEK BEGINS.
&&
LATEST
LOCATION FS STAGE DAY/TIME FORECAST
WAKENDA CREEK
CARROLLTON 16 14.7 WED 02 PM 16.1 EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
$$
SAW903
WGUS83 KEAX 220149
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
849 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
MISSOURI...
BIG CREEK AT BLAIRSTOWN AFFECTING CASS...HENRY AND JOHNSON COUNTIES.
BLACKWATER RIVER AT VALLEY CITY AFFECTING JOHNSON AND PETTIS
COUNTIES.
BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK AFFECTING COOPER AND SALINE
COUNTIES.
LAMINE RIVER NEAR OTTERVILLE AFFECTING COOPER COUNTY.
MONITEAU CREEK NEAR FAYETTE AFFECTING HOWARD COUNTY.
PETITE SALINE CREEK NEAR BOONVILLE AFFECTING COOPER COUNTY.
SOUTH GRAND RIVER AT URICH AFFECTING BATES...CASS AND HENRY
COUNTIES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD
FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY
CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL
CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY. THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
AND STREAM INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC/.
&&
MOC037-083-101-230149-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-120323T0815Z/
/BLRM7.1.ER.120320T0658Z.120321T1400Z.120322T0815Z.UU/
849 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE BIG CREEK AT BLAIRSTOWN.
* UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
* AT 8:00 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 20.8 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
THURSDAY MORNING.
* AT 20.0 FEET...THE WEST BANK OF THE CREEK BEGINS TO FLOOD.
&&
LATEST
LOCATION FS STAGE DAY/TIME FORECAST
BIG CREEK
BLAIRSTOWN 20 20.8 WED 08 PM 20.3 EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
$$
MOC101-159-230148-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-120323T1336Z/
/VLYM7.2.ER.120320T1051Z.120321T2115Z.120322T1336Z.NO/
849 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE BLACKWATER RIVER AT VALLEY CITY.
* UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.
* AT 8:00 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.3 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
THURSDAY MORNING.
* AT 25.0 FEET...COUNTY HIGHWAY E NEAR VALLEY CITY AND HIGHWAY 23
NEAR THE PERRY STATE WILDLIFE AREA ARE UNDER WATER.
* AT 22.0 FEET...WOODLANDS AND FARM FIELDS ALONG THE RIVER BEGIN TO
FLOOD.
&&
LATEST
LOCATION FS STAGE DAY/TIME FORECAST
BLACKWATER RIVER
VALLEY CITY 22 25.3 WED 08 PM 23.9 EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
$$
MOC053-195-230148-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-120326T0530Z/
/BLVM7.1.ER.120321T0636Z.120324T0000Z.120325T0530Z.NO/
849 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK.
* UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
* AT 7:45 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.3 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 27.0 FEET BY
FRIDAY EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
* AT 24.0 FEET...CROPLAND AND PASTURES ALONG THE RIVER FLOOD.
&&
LATEST
LOCATION FS STAGE DAY/TIME FORECAST
BLACKWATER RIVER
BLUE LICK 24 26.3 WED 08 PM 27.0 FRIDAY EVENING
$$
MOC053-230148-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-120323T0636Z/
/OTTM7.1.ER.120321T1600Z.120321T2215Z.120322T0636Z.NO/
849 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE LAMINE RIVER NEAR OTTERVILLE.
* UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
* AT 7:15 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.5 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
* AT 15.0 FEET...LOW LYING WOODLANDS AND FIELDS ALONG THE RIVER
FLOOD.
&&
LATEST
LOCATION FS STAGE DAY/TIME FORECAST
LAMINE RIVER
OTTERVILLE 15 16.5 WED 07 PM 15.2 EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
$$
MOC089-230148-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-120323T0410Z/
/FYTM7.1.ER.120321T1146Z.120321T2015Z.120322T0410Z.UU/
849 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE MONITEAU CREEK NEAR FAYETTE.
* UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING.
* AT 8:30 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.8 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
TONIGHT.
* AT 16.0 FEET...LOW-LYING FIELDS ALONG MONITEAU CREEK FLOOD.
&&
LATEST
LOCATION FS STAGE DAY/TIME FORECAST
MONITEAU CREEK
FAYETTE 16 17.8 WED 08 PM 17.4 TONIGHT
$$
MOC053-230148-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-120323T1912Z/
/BONM7.1.ER.120321T1206Z.120322T0130Z.120322T1912Z.UU/
849 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE PETITE SALINE CREEK NEAR BOONVILLE.
* UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 8:30 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.2 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 16.0 FEET...LOW LYING WOODLANDS AND FIELDS NEAR THE CREEK FLOOD.
&&
LATEST
LOCATION FS STAGE DAY/TIME FORECAST
PETITE SALINE CREEK
BOONVILLE 16 18.2 WED 08 PM 18.2 EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
$$
MOC013-037-083-230148-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-120324T0840Z/
/URHM7.2.ER.000000T0000Z.120321T1239Z.120323T0840Z.UU/
849 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE SOUTH GRAND RIVER AT URICH.
* UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
* AT 6:45 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.9 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
FRIDAY MORNING.
* AT 24.0 FEET...FLOODING OCCURS ACROSS LOCATIONS WITHIN 0.5 TO 1.5
MILES OF THE RIVER. AREAS AFFECTED INCLUDE LOW LYING PASTURES ALONG
WITH CROPLAND AND SECONDARY ROADS.
&&
LATEST
LOCATION FS STAGE DAY/TIME FORECAST
SOUTH GRAND RIVER
URICH 24 26.9 WED 07 PM 26.4 EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
$$239
WGUS83 KEAX 220739
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
239 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012
...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
MISSOURI...
BIG CREEK AT BLAIRSTOWN AFFECTING CASS...HENRY AND JOHNSON
COUNTIES.
LAMINE RIVER NEAR OTTERVILLE AFFECTING COOPER COUNTY.
MONITEAU CREEK NEAR FAYETTE AFFECTING HOWARD COUNTY.
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
MISSOURI...
PETITE SALINE CREEK NEAR BOONVILLE AFFECTING COOPER COUNTY.
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
MISSOURI...KANSAS...
BLACKWATER RIVER AT VALLEY CITY AFFECTING JOHNSON AND PETTIS
COUNTIES.
BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK AFFECTING COOPER AND SALINE
COUNTIES.
MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER AT LA CYGNE AFFECTING LINN COUNTY.
SOUTH GRAND RIVER AT URICH AFFECTING BATES...CASS AND HENRY
COUNTIES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD
FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY
CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL
CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY. THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
AND STREAM INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC/.
&&
MOC037-083-101-220809-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-120323T0815Z/
/BLRM7.1.ER.120320T0658Z.120321T1400Z.120322T0450Z.UU/
239 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012
THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
THE BIG CREEK AT BLAIRSTOWN.
* AT 2:00 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 19.6 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET.
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 11:50 PM WEDNESDAY.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 15.8 FEET BY FRIDAY
MORNING.
&&
LATEST
LOCATION FS STAGE DAY/TIME FORECAST
BIG CREEK
BLAIRSTOWN 20 19.6 THU 02 AM 19.1 THIS MORNING
$$
MOC101-159-230738-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-120323T1336Z/
/VLYM7.2.ER.120320T1051Z.120321T2115Z.120322T1336Z.NO/
239 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE BLACKWATER RIVER AT VALLEY CITY.
* UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.
* AT 2:00 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 23.8 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
THIS MORNING.
* AT 22.0 FEET...WOODLANDS AND FARM FIELDS ALONG THE RIVER BEGIN TO
FLOOD.
&&
LATEST
LOCATION FS STAGE DAY/TIME FORECAST
BLACKWATER RIVER
VALLEY CITY 22 23.8 THU 02 AM 22.4 THIS MORNING
$$
MOC053-195-230738-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-120326T0530Z/
/BLVM7.1.ER.120321T0636Z.120324T0000Z.120325T0530Z.NO/
239 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK.
* UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
* AT 1:45 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.4 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 27.0 FEET BY
FRIDAY EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
* AT 24.0 FEET...CROPLAND AND PASTURES ALONG THE RIVER FLOOD.
&&
LATEST
LOCATION FS STAGE DAY/TIME FORECAST
BLACKWATER RIVER
BLUE LICK 24 26.4 THU 02 AM 27.0 FRIDAY EVENING
$$
MOC053-220809-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-120323T0636Z/
/OTTM7.1.ER.120321T1600Z.120321T2215Z.120322T0322Z.NO/
239 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012
THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
THE LAMINE RIVER NEAR OTTERVILLE.
* AT 2:15 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.2 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 10:22 PM WEDNESDAY.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 6.3 FEET BY FRIDAY
MORNING.
&&
LATEST
LOCATION FS STAGE DAY/TIME FORECAST
LAMINE RIVER
OTTERVILLE 15 12.2 THU 02 AM 10.8 THIS MORNING
$$
KSC107-230738-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-120323T0839Z/
/LCGK1.1.ER.120322T0726Z.120322T0755Z.120322T0839Z.NO/
239 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER AT LA CYGNE.
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
* AT 2:15 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 24.9 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 25.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 25.2 FEET. THE RIVER WILL FALL
BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY THIS MORNING.
* AT 25.0 FEET...LOW LYING FARMLAND AND OTHER RURAL LAND FLOODS.
&&
LATEST
LOCATION FS STAGE DAY/TIME FORECAST
MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER
LA CYGNE 25 24.9 THU 02 AM 25.2 AFTER MIDNIGHT THIS
MORNING
$$
MOC089-220809-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-120323T0410Z/
/FYTM7.1.ER.120321T1146Z.120321T2015Z.120322T0408Z.UU/
239 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012
THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
THE MONITEAU CREEK NEAR FAYETTE.
* AT 2:30 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.8 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 11:08 PM WEDNESDAY.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 7.6 FEET BY FRIDAY
MORNING.
&&
LATEST
LOCATION FS STAGE DAY/TIME FORECAST
MONITEAU CREEK
FAYETTE 16 12.8 THU 02 AM 12.8 EARLY THIS MORNING
$$
MOC053-230738-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-120323T2206Z/
/BONM7.1.ER.120321T1206Z.120322T0515Z.120322T2206Z.UU/
239 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE PETITE SALINE CREEK NEAR BOONVILLE.
* UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 1:30 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.3 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
* AT 16.0 FEET...LOW LYING WOODLANDS AND FIELDS NEAR THE CREEK FLOOD.
&&
LATEST
LOCATION FS STAGE DAY/TIME FORECAST
PETITE SALINE CREEK
BOONVILLE 16 18.3 THU 01 AM 18.2 THIS MORNING
$$
MOC013-037-083-230738-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-120324T0840Z/
/URHM7.2.ER.000000T0000Z.120321T1239Z.120323T0840Z.UU/
239 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE SOUTH GRAND RIVER AT URICH.
* UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
* AT 6:45 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.9 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
FRIDAY MORNING.
* AT 24.0 FEET...FLOODING OCCURS ACROSS LOCATIONS WITHIN 0.5 TO 1.5
MILES OF THE RIVER. AREAS AFFECTED INCLUDE LOW LYING PASTURES ALONG
WITH CROPLAND AND SECONDARY ROADS.
&&
LATEST
LOCATION FS STAGE DAY/TIME FORECAST
SOUTH GRAND RIVER
URICH 24 26.9 WED 07 PM 26.0 THIS MORNING
$$What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Mar 21, 6:24 AM CDT, 18 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 21, 6:24 AM CDT, 18 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
624 AM CDT Wed Mar 21 2012
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.DISCUSSION...
Large fetch of moderate to occasionally heavy rain continues to
stream into the eastern two-thirds of the forecast area this morning.
This activity is coincident with a band of frontogenesis to the east
of a deep Southern Plains closed low, coupled with excellent
divergent flow aloft. As the upper low becomes further cut off from
the main flow later today, backing winds and a curvature of the upper
and lower jets will cause the best low-level forcing to shift
further west toward southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. This
will also cause divergence aloft to weaken and even transition to
more of a convergent nature this afternoon. This should result in a
gradual weakening of the central MO activity by late this morning
while the focus for heavier precipitation shifts into the
southwestern CWA and points south.
Precipitable water values remain extremely high for this time of
year (1.3 inches per last night's SGF sounding) so excessive rainfall
is still a possibility, especially where a deep layer of
frontogenesis can enhance rainfall rates. This is most likely to
occur across southwest parts of the forecast area where storm total
rainfall has already exceeded 3 inches in some places. Further
north, far northwestern and northeastern parts of the forecast area
have generally seen rainfall amounts less than one inch over the past
48 hours, and additional rainfall amounts probably won't exceed an inch
across these areas as the focus for heavier rain shifts further south
and west this afternoon. Therefore decided to trim a few counties off
of the flood watch across the northwest and northeast where
widespread flooding problems no longer appear to be a concern. The
watch could probably be trimmed down even more than this since
yesterday's lack of significant rainfall has allowed flood guidance
to rebound back into the 1.5 to 3 inch range across the northeastern
three-fourths of the forecast area...values that are unlikely to be
reached across these areas today. But with several small rivers going
into flood and a swath of rain still aimed at these areas early this
morning, it's best to let the flood watch ride at least into this
afternoon.
All models indicate a dry slot overspreading much of the forecast
area tonight as the upper low continues to occlude over Oklahoma.
Precip chances will again increase from the southwest on Thursday as
the cold-core upper low and associated steepening lapse rates move
into eastern KS and western MO. These lapse rates could allow for a
few storms with small hail and possibly even cold-air funnel clouds,
though the threat for the latter may be focused further west in
closer proximity to the upper low center. Low-level helicity values may
be just high enough for enhanced updrafts capable of marginally-
severe hail given the cold temps aloft. Weak winds below 1-km and a
lack of any significant surface boundaries should keep the low-topped
supercell/tornado threat to a minimum. A shower/isolated storm threat
will exist further east across central MO on Friday as the upper low
meanders eastward. The filling of the upper low and rising 500-hPa
temps will keep the hail threat less than on Thursday. Conditions
will finally dry out Friday night as the upper low pushes east of the
area.
Hawblitzel
Medium Range (Saturday through Tuesday)...
Model guidance through the weekend and into next work week is in
relatively good agreement, so forecast confidence is fairly high
through at least Monday. Models continue to advertise that the
cutoff low will have shifted well to our east by Saturday morning.
With the cutoff low meandering around under a broad flat ridge, that
will be dominating the parts of the nation not directly under the
influence of the low, expect temperatures to rebound rather quickly
as 850mb values in the teens sweep across Kansas and Missouri. This
will allow well above normal temperatures to once again dominate the
region, though few will complain about sunny skies with the
temperatures in the 70s. Warm up should persist from Saturday
through Monday, but get beat back Tuesday as a shortwave moves
through the northern Plains, taking the edge of the warm
temperatures as a weak front passes through along with some cloud
cover and a fleeting chance of some storms.
Cutter
&&
.AVIATION...
For the 12Z TAFs...The primary band of rain has shifted east during
the early morning hours, but scattered showers continue to waft
across the terminals along the Kansas-Missouri state line. This
should continue through the mid morning hours before the activity
disipates and the refocuesses in a new band of rain that will rotate
north across the Kansas-Missouri border region this afternoon. Kept
ceilings in the MVFR range as those are the conditions noted with any
of the rain storms we have had of late, but anticpate later TAF
updates as ceilings may wander from MVFR to IFR and back several
times through the morning and early afternoon hours, but confidance
on low CIGs is too low to include at this time. Otherwise, after
another afternoon of rain, we might get some drier air moving in
during the evening hours, so at 03Z have removed mention of
precipitation, and brought ceilings down into the IFR range where
ceilings should stay through much of the overnight hours.
Cutter
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR MOZ003>006-012>016-020>025-
028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.
&&
WFO EAXHazardous weather outlook, Mar 21, 4:51 AM CDT, 1 hour 51 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 451 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012 KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040- 043>046-053-054-221000- ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS- ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER- HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON- CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON- RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS- COOPER-BATES-HENRY- 451 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT OCCASIONAL RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND TWO INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRING THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING OF STREAMS AND LOW- LYING AREAS...AND A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI ON THURSDAY...AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI ON FRIDAY. HEAVY RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL ON THURSDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY RAINFALL REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. HAWBLITZEL
The office that day
Everything else NWS Kansas City, MO issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 4:46 AM CDT | River Flood Warning | EAX | Carroll | 16 hr |
| Mar 21, 4:46 AM CDT | River Flood Warning | EAX | Cooper | 22 hr |
| Mar 21, 4:46 AM CDT | River Flood Warning | EAX | Cooper | 39 hr |
Nearby
River Flood Warnings in Missouri, 2012Every river flood warning in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.